IVN Editorial BoardMost polls answer one question: who is winning today? IVP's new California survey asks the question that decides close races: who is still undecided, and which way are they likely to go?
Take Proposition 39, the voter ID measure. It leads among likely voters, 43 percent to 40 percent. But Republicans have largely made up their minds. The voters still deciding are mostly Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, and once they are accounted for, the measure is a coin flip.
Six weeks before the June primary, an IVP poll was the first published survey to show Xavier Becerra breaking away from the Democratic field for governor. He finished first.
Read the full analysis, then explore the toplines and crosstabs in IVP's interactive data studio.
In other news: the lawsuit we told you was coming has been filed. Veterans of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars are suing the State of New York over closed primaries in a case that could make its way to the Supreme Court.
Read about this and more stories that go beyond the two-sided narrative below.
NEW POLL RESULTS ▶▶▶
New CA Poll: Voter ID Measure Leads Today. Its Undecided Voters Point the Other Way
The Independent Voter Project surveyed 2,906 likely California voters and did what most polls skip: separated the decided from the undecided, then studied who the undecided are. Prop. 39 leads, Prop. 40 is a toss-up that leans no, and the Insurance Commissioner race turns on a single piece of information most voters do not have yet.
FEATURED ▶▶▶
Veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan Wars Sue New York After Being Denied the Right to Vote
Paul Rieckhoff and Kristen Rouse served their country, then came home to a state that will not let them vote in the primaries their taxes pay for. Rieckhoff v. Berger asks a basic question: does the right to vote come from citizenship, or from joining a party?
POPULAR ON IVN ▶▶▶
TAKE ACTION ▶▶▶
Declare Your Right to Vote
IVP is taking New York’s closed primaries to federal court on behalf of 3.1 million voters locked out of taxpayer-funded elections, including an estimated 140,000 veterans. If a closed primary has ever shut you out, your story can be used as evidence in the case. You do not have to live in New York, and it takes about three minutes.
INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES ▶▶▶
Polls Hint at a Blue Wave. Are the Independents Riding it?
Republicans keep telling voters that independent candidates are secret Democrats. The Democrats’ generic ballot lead has swung six points in four months, and Matt Shinners reads the polls for who is actually riding the wave.
LATEST EPISODE ▶▶▶
Independent Voter Podcast
Paul Rieckhoff joins the Independent Voter Podcast to explain why a combat veteran and 9/11 first responder is suing New York: disenfranchisement on public property, with public funds.
VIDEO CLIP ▶▶▶
Hasan Piker Says America Is Worse Than al-Qaeda, ‘Pound for Pound’
Streamer Hasan Piker told The Axios Show that the United States is worse than al-Qaeda, pointing to the February strike on an Iranian school that killed 156 people. The remark landed in the middle of Michigan’s Senate race, where GOP groups have spent close to $3 million tying Piker to Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.
CAMPAIGN TOOLS ▶▶▶
217 Million Voters, One Chat Box: New AI Tool Opens Up the Voter File
A new AI tool called Voter Count lets anyone ask plain-English questions about 217 million registered voters, no expensive contracts or technical expertise required. Shawn Griffiths takes it for a spin.
NEW: Join the Conversation
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SIGN UP NOWVETERANS ▶▶▶
Independent Americans with Paul Rieckhoff
On Independent Americans, Rieckhoff breaks down the landmark lawsuit from the inside: 3.1 million New Yorkers, including an estimated 140,000 veterans, locked out of the elections that decide most races.
