Polls Hint at a Blue Wave. Are the Independents Riding it?

With 5 weeks until Election Day, the national question of who should control Congress has moved clearly toward Democrats. Their lead in the Silver Bulletin generic ballot average reached D+8.1 on September 28, which the site calls a high point for the party this cycle.

The likely-voter-adjusted version of that average used in its forecast stands at D+9.2.

That creates a clear test for the high-profile independent candidates as they face attacks that they're secretly Democrats in disguise.

Dan Osborn, Seth Bodnar, Todd Achilles, Bill Hill, and Kevin Kiley each argue they are true independents and stand apart from the two parties. If poll respondents believe that to be true, their numbers should not simply rise and fall with the national partisan mood.

If it is not, their standing should track the generic ballot like any other candidate in a nationalized midterm.

So, what do the polls show us?

The National Line

The generic ballot has not risen steadily in a line, but it rather dipped and then rose again:

The Democratic lead peaked at D+8.1 in late May, fell to D+4.8 by June 22, and recovered to D+6.0 by late July. In July, Silver's average showed a 6-point Democratic lead, while Decision Desk HQ had it closer to 4.

Silver's average then climbed from D+6.7 at the start of September to its current high of D+8.1.

This trend gives us two swings to test against: a drop of about three points from late May to late June, and a rise of 3 to 4 points from late June to late September.

Osborn: Nearly Flat

Nebraska has the most polling of any race on this list. Osborn's share has barely changed.

Osborn has polled between 46% and 48% in every survey since February. He held that range while the national environment fell three points and while it climbed back.

The four major polling averages now put the race between a tie and Osborn +0.9.

While the results may be uncertain because of the polls sponsors (Democratic-aligned firms or groups backing Osborn), the stability is what to look at here. Those polled in Nebraska aren't shifting their opinion of Osborn with the national mood toward Democrats, showing that they view him as separate from that party.

Bodnar: Moving with Bankhead (D), Not the Nation

Montana is the one race where the independent's numbers have shifted significantly over the past months. That shift, however, maps onto the state's three-way split better than onto the national environment.

Bodnar's lowest numbers came in June, when the generic ballot was also at its low. On its own, that could look like a correlation. But June was also when Democrat Alani Bankhead had just won her primary and was polling in the mid-20s.

As Bankhead's share slipped into the teens in August polling, Bodnar's rose to 30. The Montana Free Press/Rutgers poll is the only poll here that is neither partisan nor campaign-sponsored.

The September Quantus poll cuts the other way. It shows Bankhead back to 23% and Bodnar at 24%, even as the national environment kept improving for Democrats.

These results do suggest that a large number of Montana voters are deciding between Bodnar and Bankhead, but it's hard to map that onto how they're feeling about Democrats in general.

Independents are leaning strongly toward Bodnar in the race, but they're also leaning strongly toward Democrats nationally.

Achilles: The Polling Firm Effect

Idaho produces the widest spread of any race in this analysis.

Two surveys taken one week apart in August differ by 39 points on the margin. Because the differences between firms are this large, no trend over time can be measured, national or otherwise.

The polling averages reflect the same problem. Race to the WH puts Risch ahead by 1.4 points, while Silver Bulletin has him ahead by 18.9. Whatever is happening in Idaho's first head-to-head Senate race without a Democrat, the polling cannot yet show whether it follows the national mood.

Hill: Moving Against the National Current

In Alaska, the race went in the opposite direction from the generic ballot.

Hill's first-choice support rose sharply over the summer. He polled at 11% to 13% in Alaska Survey Research's spring multi-candidate surveys, then won 32.5% in the August top-four primary.

That jump came after Democrat Matt Schultz dropped out and endorsed him. It was consolidation within the non-Republican vote, not a national wave.

In the head-to-head numbers, Hill held a four-point deficit through early August. The September AARP survey, the only one commissioned by a bipartisan team rather than a Democratic-aligned sponsor, showed his widest deficit of the year.

That came during the same weeks the national generic ballot hit its high.

Kiley: No Data to Test

There is no public general-election polling in California's 6th District. The only hard numbers come from the June top-two primary. Kiley led the seven-candidate field with 24.3% to Democrat Richard Pan's 23.2%, in a district that Harris carried by nine points.

Kiley is the one candidate here whose race is framed almost entirely by partisan geography, and it has no polling to test against the generic ballot.

IVN's earlier profile described the race as a test of whether the independent label can beat the gerrymander. Until someone polls it, that remains untested. Though Kalshi has had Democrat Richard Pan as a 90+% likely winner throughout this time period.

Is There A Correlation?

Not one the data can support.

Taken candidate by candidate:

• Osborn held steady through both national swings.
• Bodnar's movement is better explained by Bankhead's share than by the national environment. There is a connection between these shifts, but, if anything, it connects Bankhead with the Democrats and Bodnar with the independent voting bloc.
• Achilles's polling varies too much between firms to show any trend.
• Hill moved against the national current in September.
• Kiley has no polling to test.

The pattern that does hold across races is local. In every case where an independent's standing moved meaningfully, the cause was a change in who else was on the ballot:

• In Alaska, Schultz's exit came before Hill's primary surge.
• In Montana, Bankhead's decline tracked Bodnar's rise.
• In Nebraska, Osborn has run head-to-head all year, and his numbers have not moved.

The independent-voter crosstabs point the same way. Nationally, independents favor Democrats on the generic ballot by 16 points in NBC's average, and by 29 and 25 points in a recent Emerson survey.

In Montana, the independents who favor Democrats nationally are going to the independent candidate over the Democratic nominee. The Montana Free Press poll shows it, and so does the Forward Montana-sponsored Hart survey, which found Bodnar leading Alme 56–30 among independents head-to-head while Bankhead trailed Alme with the same voters.

What It Means

The candidates have argued all year that they stand apart from the legacy parties. The polling so far suggests that voters are treating them as such. It might be time for their opponents to start treating them as such and start to engage with their ideas instead of their identities.