2026 Midterm Election Live Updates for Independent Voters

In Nebraska, independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn faces Sen. Pete Ricketts without another serious contender; the Democratic nominee withdrew in July.

The final polls disagree with each other. NYT/Siena (Oct. 23–29, 809 likely voters) has Ricketts up 49–43. YouGov (Oct. 26–29) has the race tied at 49.

A poll sponsored by the Nebraska Democratic Party shows Osborn up 1.5 points and winning nonpartisan registrants 73–23. Almost every poll since September falls within five points.

Ricketts has been making the case that Osborn is a secret Democrat, referring to him as "Democrat Dan."

Osborn has responded by stating that he won’t caucus with either party, while focusing on Ricketts' extreme wealth and close ties to the current administration.

Why it matters: This is the independent movement's best chance to take a Senate seat outright, and it’s happening in a state Trump carried by 20 points.

Maine’s 314,986 unenrolled voters, the state’s second-largest bloc, are breaking for Democrat Troy Jackson 53 to 46 percent over Sen. Susan Collins, according to the University of New Hampshire’s final Pine Tree State Poll. About two in three unenrolled voters in Maine disapprove of President Trump. Four in ten independents say their Senate vote in favor of Troy Jackson is specifically meant to oppose the President. Unenrolled voters in Maine had a 77 percent turnout rate in the 2024 general election. Across her career, unaffiliated voters have been an essential core of Collins’ coalition. Affordability is the top issue in the poll at 18 percent, followed by government corruption at 14 percent. Overall, Jackson leads Collins 54 to 45. UNH surveyed 1,654 likely voters Oct. 27 to 31, with a margin of error of 2.4 points.

Decision Desk HQ posted its most recent forecast for the Kansas Senate race between Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton.

Over the last few months, the race has gradually become more competitive and now the forecast shows a 51% probability that Adam Hamilton will win.

So 50/50 either way.

But the real story is that it is independent voters who are making this competitive.

According to VoterCount.ai, 45% of the state electorate are Republicans, 25.8% are Democrats, and 28% are independents. In other words, Hamilton needs the independent vote to win.

Does this mean he will? Only time will tell how voters cast their ballots on Tuesday.

Independent voters are casting ballots earlier in California’s general election than they have in recent elections, and their share of the early vote is above where it ended in the last two statewide elections.

As of the latest L2 voter file, about 5.46 million Californians had returned ballots. That is roughly 24% of the state’s 22.6 million registered voters, according to L2 voter file data.

No Party Preference (NPP) and American Independent Party voters make up 19.4% of ballots returned so far. They ended the June primary at 18.9% of ballots and the 2022 general election at 19.2%. Before Election Day in June, they were only about 15% of ballots returned.

Independent voters have already cast 62.7% of their total June primary vote. That matches Democrats (62.7%) and is ahead of Republicans (57.8%).

The gap in participation rates still exists. So far 16.2% of registered NPP voters have voted, compared with 27.5% of Democrats and 26.9% of Republicans.

Turnout is up across the board. In June, independent voters returned their ballots late, and their share grew as counting went on. If that pattern holds, their final share in November could be higher still.

California has nearly 6.2 million independent voters, more than a quarter of the electorate. How many vote the whole ballot could decide close down-ballot races and statewide measures.

One day out from election day, independent U.S. Senate candidate Ty Pinkins joins Paul Rieckhoff from Vicksburg, Mississippi for a no-BS conversation about how the national Democratic Party has used Black voters in the South as sacrificial lambs for forty years, how CNN's election map literally omits his name, and why the only people who've offered him money to drop out are Democrats. Pinkins — a 21-year Army veteran, Bronze Star recipient, and Georgetown-trained attorney who has worked pro bono in poor Mississippi communities for six years — breaks down the ballot-access double standard, the smear campaign branding him a spoiler, and the bigger 2026 play: six independent veterans running in six states to deny either party a Senate majority and force every bill through the independent middle.

There are 164 statewide ballot measures in 2026. According to Ballotpedia, campaigns for and against them have raised more than $1.2 billion, which is closing in on the $1.33 billion raised during the entire 2024 presidential election cycle.

But one state is vastly outspending the rest. In fact, it has spent more than all other 49 states combined.

According to Ballotpedia’s data, ballot measure campaigns in the state raised $798.9 million. This accounts for more than two-thirds of the national total.

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