Six days before the consequential midterm races and no one knows what will happen. Except us. We make our predictions on Senate races in Texas, Michigan, Maine, and Alaska, and compare our picks to the Polymarket odds.
Texas gets a deep look at James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton, including Talarico’s play for independent voters that could finally turn Texas blue, in spite of Republican campaign ads urging voters to stick to their team instead of thinking for themselves. Senate races in Maine (Susan Collins vs. Troy Jackson) and Michigan (Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers) each get their own prediction round with real betting-market numbers attached, before the crew circles back to Alaska's Peltola-Sullivan race to close the predictions segment.
This episode is sponsored by the Independent Voter Project and produced by Olas Media. Listen on Spotify or Apple Podcasts.
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Episode Highlights
On this episode of the Independent Voter Podcast, the hosts open in Alaska, where two candidates named Dan Sullivan are on the same ballot, a quirk that's sparked a DOJ lawsuit even before votes are counted and accusations that it's an attempt to undermine ranked choice voting.
Shawn Griffiths argues the duplicate-name controversy actually proves why ranked choice voting helps rather than hurts, since a plurality system would let one Dan Sullivan siphon votes from the other without it.
Cara McCormick traces the spoiler-effect problem back to Angus King's 2012 independent Senate run in Maine, explaining how party-funded spoiler candidates convinced her ranked choice voting was necessary in the first place.
The crew turns to Texas, breaking down James Talarico's challenge to Ken Paxton, citing Talarico's crossover appeal (two-thirds support among independents per recent polling), Trump's endorsement of Paxton over John Cornyn, and a controversial ad from Paxton's estranged wife urging voters to 'be a team player.'
All three hosts predict a narrow Talarico win, matching Polymarket odds showing him at 68% after a steady slide for Paxton since mid-September.
In Maine, the panel debates Susan Collins versus Troy Jackson, with Cara (a longtime Maine resident) predicting a Jackson landslide driven by weak Collins ads and her 96% voting alignment with Trump, while Chad Peace leans toward a narrow Collins win on incumbency.
Polymarket has Jackson favored roughly 70-30.
The hosts assess Michigan's open Senate race between Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers, noting Trump's 'jihadist' attack on El-Sayed may backfire with independents, and predicting a razor-thin outcome despite El-Sayed's 70% Polymarket lead.
Closing out predictions, the Shawn predicts Alaska's Mary Peltola will win outright over Nathan Sullivan without needing ranked choice tabulation, which he and Chad argue would undercut any legal challenge to the state's election system.
