Kalshi Has a New Candidate in Striking Distance of Susan Collins as Odds Point to Platner Exit

AUGUSTA, Maine — The latest sexual assault allegations against US Senate candidate Graham Platner have shaken the political landscape not only in Maine, but across the US—and speculation is rising that Platner will drop out soon.

Especially, as his own party’s leadership is calling for it.

Not only that, but US Senate Minority Chuck Schumer and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand released a joint statement that said, “Platner needs to immediately withdraw [...] and allow Maine Democrats the opportunity to choose a new candidate.”

To clarify, it won’t be Democratic voters who pick his replacement. It will be the party’s leadership. But endorsements from high-profile Democrats and lawmakers are being rescinded faster than the news cycle can keep up with it all.

The writing is all but on the wall at this point.

As explained by IVN author Cara Brown McCormick, state law gives Platner until July 13 to drop out of the race for his name to be removed from the ballot. Then, the Democratic Party has until July 27 to name his replacement.

This means that the record-breaking primary turnout this year may not mean much in the end. That is unless the party picks a candidate who actually got votes in the same election—which may not mean Gov. Janet Mills.

Mills suspended her campaign for US Senate ahead of the primaries but still managed to get 19% of the vote.

Kalshi prediction market released new odds Monday for the US Senate race in Maine. And while many may expect incumbent US Sen. Susan Collins to go up in the percentages or Mills' name to appear—neither happened.

Instead, a new candidate emerged: former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson.

Jackson was not on the ballot for US Senate this cycle, but he was on the ballot for governor.

He finished third in the Democratic gubernatorial race and was last to be eliminated under ranked choice tabulation. His final vote count was 60,000 before he was eliminated.

He finished behind winner Hannah Pingree and runner-up Nirav Shah. Some may ask: Why would Shah then not be considered in the prediction markets if Democrats are looking at that race for a replacement?

The answer: Ranked choice voting.

Maine cannot use ranked choice voting for gubernatorial general elections, but it did use it in the primary. Jackson may have come in third, but he was part of a three-candidate ranked choice coalition with Pingree and Shenna Bellows.

This means each of the candidates encouraged their supporters to pick them first, but to rank the other two candidates on the ballot after them. This alliance led to Pingree coming from behind and winning the Democratic nomination.

Pingree is a former Speaker of the Maine House. Jackson is a former Senate President. They have already formed a coalition on the campaign trail. This is something the Democratic Party may consider.

And it would mean avoiding a full Joe Biden moment by picking a replacement who wasn’t on the ballot at all and thus had zero votes to their name.

Kalshi has Jackson’s odds of winning the Maine US Senate race at 31% to Collins’ 39%, and Platner hasn’t dropped out yet nor has the Democratic Party announced who might replace him ahead of the deadlines.

This is evidence that the prediction markets may be factoring in more than just how many votes potential candidates got. Again, Shah got second place in the gubernatorial primary and had 12,000 more votes than Jackson before Jackson was eliminated. 

But McCormick reports that Shah did not join a ranked choice coalition, and he relied on some of the standard partisan attack strategies under traditional voting methods. 

It is also noteworthy that Mills, who was already on the ballot for Senate, is also not in the prediction markets. But there seems to be some doubts within her party that she could beat Collins.

“While I was always excited by Platner, one of the things many can't seem to grasp is Dems never really had a choice. There was and is ZERO chance Mills could beat Collins in November. That's still true,” said Kevin St. Jarre, journalist for the Cape Courier and a high school social studies teacher at Cape Elizabeth High School.

“If Platner drops out, the Dem leadership will pick his replacement as the Dem nominee. The only person who has a shot is Troy Jackson.”

On Platner, Pingree called the allegations against him “deeply disturbing.” Like others in her state party, she too says Platner needs to drop out and adds that no party should stand behind someone with allegations of assault.

“Graham Platner should exit the race immediately,” she said.

Pingree adds that Platner “tapped into something real—voters hungry for change showed up with real passion and energy.” Notably, this does not only mean Democrats, as the state now allows independents to vote in primary elections.

“That energy doesn’t have to go away. It needs a new candidate to carry it forward," she concluded. One can only speculate whether the “new candidate” she is talking about is her friend, Troy Jackson.