Matt Shinners
Montana's US Senate race is going to November as a four-way contest. Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead did not withdraw by Monday's 5 p.m. deadline, despite pressure from local and national Democrats.
This decision puts Montana in contrast with Idaho, South Dakota, and Nebraska, where the Democrat dropped out of the race to clear the way for an independent candidate to take on the Republican head-to-head.
The outcome had been telegraphed for weeks. Both Bankhead and Bodnar have repeatedly made public statements that they did not plan to drop out of the race. The two met twice in late July with state party executive director Emily Marburger present as an observer but were unable to reach an agreement that would allow for either to take on Republican candidate Kurt Alme without the other in the race.
The money isn't close. The polling tells a few conflicting stories, depending on source.
Bodnar has raised roughly $3.2 million, more than Bankhead and Alme combined. Alme has raised just shy of $2 million. Bankhead has not cleared $60,000.
Polling sponsored by pro-independent groups shows Bodnar as the stronger general-election candidate. A GQR survey paid for by the nonprofit Contours found Bodnar beating Alme 50–44 head-to-head, while Bankhead lost 44–52.
Tavern Research, polling before the primary, had Bodnar tied with Alme at 50 and Alme beating Bankhead 56–44.
Republican-sponsored polling inverts it. An NRSC survey provided to the Republican-aligned Washington Reporter showed Alme leading Bodnar 50–43 head-to-head, but only 49–46 over Bankhead.
Most recently, a poll by Hart Research commissioned by Forward Montana has Bodnar’s support rising while Bankhead’s falls. In a four-way race (including the Libertarian), Alme leads with 45% to Bodnar’s 30% and Bankhead’s 15%. Head-to-head, they have an Alme-Bodnar matchup tied at 46%, whereas in the Alme-Bankhead matchup, the Democrat loses 52-38.
In these head-to-head matchups, both candidates receive around 90% of the Democratic vote, while Bodnar does significantly better with independents.
With Alme, Bankhead, and Bodnar all on the ballot in November, comparisons can be made between the outcomes in Montana vs. Idaho, Nebraska, and South Dakota. We’ll be sure to analyze those results when they’re released.