IVN Editorial BoardPolls conducted by the Independent Voter Project, included in the New York Times poll tracker, do something fundamentally different from most.
Traditional polls try to predict the result of an election, if the election were being held today. IVP polls, on the other hand, try to understand which voters have made up their minds, and which ones are up for grabs.
It's the undecided voters that matter most. But for any given race, who the undecided voters are can vary significantly.
IVP’s latest California survey is still the only poll we know of that tracks who the undecided voters actually are. California's Prop. 39 (Voter ID) lead, for example, looks less certain the further you go into the crosstabs in IVP’s interactive data studio.
Look a little further and you’ll find that, by more than 3 to 1, likely voters say California campaigns should focus on California issues, not on Donald Trump (57% to 16%).
And who are the voters who just want to focus on Trump? Hint: It's not Republicans.
Yet so many campaigns this year still run on the same issue: Trump.
Maybe that’s why everybody wants the independent vote, but few campaigns are earning it. And maybe that's why more campaigns should be looking at the crosstabs.
Check out more stories for independent-minded voters below.
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Everybody Wants the Independent Vote, But Nobody Actually Talks To Them
Independent voters are the kingmakers of the 2026 midterms, but campaigns treat them as data points to be modeled instead of people to be persuaded. The IVN Editorial Board on the conversation nobody is having.
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New CA Poll: Voter ID Measure Leads Today. Its Undecided Voters Point the Other Way
IVP’s survey of 2,906 likely California voters separates the decided from the undecided, then studies who the undecided are. Prop. 39’s voter ID lead becomes a coin flip once its mostly Democratic undecideds break, Prop. 40 leans no, and the Insurance Commissioner race hinges on one fact most voters have not heard yet. Or skip the summary and dig through the full data studio and crosstabs yourself.
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Alaska Ballot Measure 2 Could Kill Open Primaries, Ranked Choice Voting, and Dark Money Rules in One Vote
Alaska voters will decide whether to repeal the state’s 2020 reforms: open primaries, ranked choice voting, and dark money disclosure, all three in a single up-or-down vote. Shawn Griffiths on what’s at stake.
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Independent Voter Podcast
Trump’s LA bombing comment went viral stripped of its context. The way political clips get weaponized says more about our broken elections than the clip itself. The crew breaks it down on EP62.
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Neither Party Owns California’s Latino Vote. That’s What Makes It Powerful
Millions of California voters have walked away from party labels, and Latino independents are leading the shift. Neither party can take their vote for granted, and both have to earn it. Alex Segura of the Latino News Network reports.
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Rieckhoff on NewsNation: Primaries Are ‘the Whole Ball Game’
Iraq War veteran Paul Rieckhoff took the lawsuit to NewsNation: New York’s primaries run on public schools, public funding, and public poll workers, but voters without a party must ‘resign’ their independence to take part. He calls Rieckhoff v. Berger the start of a national fight.
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Montana Democratic Chair Resigns, Endorses Independent Seth Bodnar for Senate
Shannon O’Brien led Montana’s Democratic Party ... until now.
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217 Million Voters, One Chat Box: New AI Tool Opens Up the Voter File
A new AI tool called Voter Count lets anyone ask plain-English questions about 217 million registered voters, no expensive contracts or technical expertise required. Shawn Griffiths takes it for a spin.
