Shawn Griffiths
DENVER —Just days before Election Day, official early voting numbers out of Colorado show the state’s largest voting bloc is making its presence felt. Independent voters have returned more ballots than Democrats or Republicans.
According to early voting data reported through October 27, Colorado voters had returned 1,109,631 mail ballots (Colorado uses a universal vote-by-mail system). Of those:
- 481,811 came from unaffiliated and other-party voters;
- 355,595 came from Democrats; and
- 272,225 came from Republicans.
That means voters outside the two major parties account for 43.42% of returned ballots, compared to 32.05% for Democrats, and 24.53% for Republicans.
Now, these numbers shouldn’t be too surprising. According to VoterCount.ai, more than 2 million active registered voters in Colorado are independent. That is roughly 51% of the electorate, compared to 25% that are Democrats and 22% that are Republicans.
This does mean that, unlike registered party members, turnout among independents has not matched or exceeded their share of the electorate. But in a political environment that puts everything in terms of R vs D, it shows many independents are still motivated this election.
It also highlights the fact that they are the majority, something that easily gets lost when the national press breaks down early vote totals in terms of who is outvoting whom between Republicans and Democrats.
Are there more Republicans showing up? Are there more Democrats? Neither question can truly understand what the electorate looks like in Colorado or beyond as nearly half of voters across the country identify as independent.
The numbers out of Colorado show that campaigns can’t rely on traditional partisan turnout models anymore, especially since the data offer zero insight into which candidates received a person’s vote.
Typically, analysts will look at how many Republicans voted and assume most of those votes went to Republican candidates. Likewise, they will look at how many Democrats voted and assume most of those votes went to Democratic candidates.
In this cycle, it may not be a fair assumption, but it gives analysts some idea at what they are looking at going into Election Day.
But what happens when 43% of the turnout holds no allegiance to either major party? These voters cannot simply be assigned to either party's column.
With November 3 approaching, the national conversation will focus on which party will control Congress. But Colorado offers a reminder that the largest group of voters doesn't belong to either one.
And the real question isn't just how many independents show up. It's what choices they make once they do.