Nathan Smolensky
Last month, the shores of New York City were hit by a wave of deep blue (some might argue Red) as a slew of Democratic Socialists of America members, backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani, scored major wins in the primaries.
At the Congressional level, Claire Valdez won the Democratic nod for NY-7, Darializa Avila Chevalier won in the 13th, and former DSA member Brad Lander took the nomination in the 10th.
All of these districts are contained within New York City, and everyone is deep blue, meaning that all three of these candidates are heavy favorites to coast through the November elections.
Much has been made about the polarizing nature of these candidates, about what they intend to do and what they’ll be able to do once elected, about controversial statements and stances. While I won’t be getting into that here, it’s fair to say that there’s quite some concern around the DSA’s success, and how much of it is yet to come.
And for the many across the political spectrum who would want to viably challenge these types of candidates in places like New York, the good news is that you absolutely can—but not through the usual means.
Here's what's not going to happen any time soon: old-school, moderate Democrats with establishment ties beating well-funded progressive challengers.
This year’s wins are no fluke. Mamdani and his progressive wing of the party have capitalized upon long-simmering dissatisfaction among Dems with the old guard, and they have capitalized upon the nature of the closed primary system.
In NYC, the roughly half-million voters who turned out in the Democratic primary on June 25 represented about a sixth of the party’s registered voters. Specifically, they represented the most politically active and politically passionate portion of the party—the perfect audience for loud, brash progressives who can preach to their choir.
It’s not clear how much opening the primaries will affect things, either. The group Open Primaries recently released an excellent essay making the case on principle for why NYC shouldn’t stick with a primary structure that excludes the city’s 1.2 million registered independent voters.
But the practical reality is that independents could still simply register with a party just to vote in its primary—some do, most don’t. Perhaps more importantly, the new mayor and his progressive allies don’t seem all that interested in opening the primary, despite popular support, making that barrier a difficult one to lift.
Here's what else isn't going to happen: Republicans winning in the November general against Valdez, Lander, Chevalier, and the like. These candidates are vying to represent districts with respective Partisan Voting Indices of D+25, D+32, and D+32 again.
In layman’s terms, it ain’t happening.
But PVI is a measure purely of Republican vs Democrat competitive dynamics — just because the other major party can’t compete, doesn’t mean no one can. And here’s where the independent candidates enter the picture.
The model for independents competing in lopsided political districts has been demonstrated. In 2022, Evan McMullin ran for Senate in deep-red Utah and earned some 43% of the vote, far outperforming any recent challenger to the state’s Republican incumbents.
Two years later, Dan Osborn ran for Senate in Nebraska (R+13), finishing with close to 48%. Now, Osborn and Montana’s Seth Bodnar headline a slew of independent challengers across our nation’s frontier, poised to challenge incumbents in largely lopsided districts where there’s a current lack of serious political competition.
And while the most prominent independent challenges this year are taking place in deep red areas of the country, there’s no reason the same fundamental strategy can’t be applied to the deep blues as well.
In places like NYC, there is currently no viable second option in most general elections. Coalition-minded independents can address a critical market need, positioning themselves particularly against divisive partisan opponents who don’t appeal to great portions of the general election populace.
What could such a winning coalition look like? Well, it would feature a great many independent voters—those who have been cut out of the closed primary process. It would feature some number of Republicans, whose voices are currently completely ignored in these districts.
It would feature disaffected Democrats unhappy with the options their primaries are giving them. Put it all together, and you’ve got a numbers advantage on your hands—PVI be damned.
Ultimately, this isn’t about the DSA itself. It’s about creating real voter choice in places that need it. It’s about fostering healthy competition in more of our elections, and creating, through that competition, greater accountability for our elected leaders.
Whatever you may think about them, Mamdani and his allies have played the political game well. They won in June and will likely win in November. Moving forward, they deserve a worthy opponent, and the independent movement can offer them just that