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The Governor of Ohio, John Kasich, announced today that he believes Mitt Romney will win the battleground state on the legs of the auto-bailout discussion. The Republican governor announced on Meet The Press, “I believe right now we are currently ahead. Internals show us currently ahead. I honestly think that Romney is going to carry Ohio. And you know I haven’t been saying this, I now believe it’s going to happen.”
Whether the internal polls reflect a large swing of voters toward Romney or Obama is only available to the candidates’ campaigns and pollsters. The latest public polling data contradicts Governor Kasich’s argument.
The latest Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio News presidential poll shows the two candidates in a dead heat. A Rasmussen poll published on the 23rd and a Suffolk presidential poll also have the candidates tied.
The remainder of the presidential polls released in the past week have Obama leading by an average of 1.9 points. These polls were conducted by Purple Strategies, CNN, American Research Group, TIME, SurveyUSA, and PPP. In the TIME poll released on Tuesday, President Obama led in the state by 5 points.
It’s no secret that many believe the election hinges on the outcome of the vote in Ohio. If Obama wins Ohio and Pennsylvania, it’s almost certain that he will win the election. Romney needs the state and Florida to stay competitive if current polling is indicative of the November 6 outcome. The two candidates will continue to campaign hard in Ohio and move west into Colorado, where the two candidates are also tied.
Collectively the two states have 27 electoral votes and theoretically early returns in Ohio could influence last minute voters in Colorado, further highlighting the importance of the Buckeye state.