How Republicans Flipped a Key Congressional Race Despite the Blue Wave in Maine

Maine Democrats in particular had a historic night on November 3.

Former state Senate President Troy Jackson unseated US Senator Susan Collins 53.1% to 46.8%, making Collins the first Maine incumbent senator to lose reelection since 1978.

That year, incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Hathaway was trounced by Republican Bill Cohen. Collins’ defeat marks the end of a 48-year run that started with William Cohen.

Turning to the race for governor, former Maine Speaker of the House and Democrat Hannah Pingree won by 17 points, even though she was running in a three-way race.  

Governor-elect Pingree is the first person to be elected from the same political party as the outgoing one in 68 years.

In Augusta, the Democratic Party’s candidates are on track for a 24-11 supermajority in the state Senate, their first two-thirds majority in a generation.

Maine Democrats also flipped 13 Republican-held House seats, building their largest House majority since 2008.

The question is, if Maine became so much more Democratic in 2026, how did bombastic former Governor Paul LePage, who lost statewide by 13 points just four years ago, manage to eke out a victory in the state's Second Congressional District?

Governor LePage’s win may be the only seat Republicans flipped anywhere in the country this year.

The answer starts with the Democrat who wasn't on the ballot.

A Primary That Pushed Out a Winner

Democratic US Rep. Jared Golden was running for reelection in 2026 until fellow Democrat State Auditor Matt Dunlap challenged him from the left in the Democratic primary in October 2025.

Dunlap made Golden's vote for the SAVE Act, the Republican bill requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote, a centerpiece of his case, calling it "just inexplicable."

Nevertheless, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee backed Golden right away, warning that the Democratic Party could lose the seat if Golden weren't the party’s nominee.

A month later, Golden announced he would not seek reelection.

He pointed to the toxic state of national politics, violent threats against his young family, and his wish to protect them. Some political insiders speculated that Golden foresaw what a bruising primary would do to his chances in what would surely be another close general election that followed.

His fear would have been reasonable. For the first time since 2018, Golden faced both a competitive primary and a grueling general election.

A Proven Formula in a Trump District

Golden had a history of winning in an increasingly Republican district. Trump carried Maine's Second Congressional District in 2016, 2020, and 2024, winning it by about 10 points just two years ago.

Golden held on that same year against a formidable opponent, Republican state Rep. Austin Theriault, winning by just 2,706 votes out of more than 400,000 cast.

Golden did it in one of the most rural and most Trump-friendly districts held by any Democrat in the entire Congress.  The Second Congressional District covers nearly 92% of Maine's land area.

Golden’s first win was also remarkable. In 2018, there was an open seat, and he faced incumbent Republican Bruce Poliquin in the nation's first congressional election decided by ranked choice voting.

Golden finished second in the first round, 2,632 votes behind, and no candidate won an outright majority. In the automatic runoff, voters who had backed the two independent candidates, Tiffany Bond and Will Hoar, went to Golden by more than 2-to-1.

Golden picked up 10,232 votes to Poliquin's 4,695 and became the first challenger in over a century to unseat an incumbent in the district.

Golden went on to win four consecutive terms in Congress, three of them through ranked-choice runoffs, by winning over enough ticket-splitting conservative and moderate Republicans.

He was unapologetically pro-choice and pro-equality, probably more so than any Democrat who had held the seat before him. But he also broke with his political party often enough that rural voters trusted him to think for himself.

Purity Over Victory

Golden’s independence is exactly what Democratic Party activists in Maine couldn't forgive. They cared more about ideological purity on issues like the SAVE Act than about winning a district that leans Republican. Golden once called Dunlap a "30-year party crony" and doubted the district would choose him over LePage.

After Golden stepped aside, Dunlap won a four-way primary through a ranked-choice count. He defeated state Sen. Joe Baldacci, the DCCC's preferred candidate.

Then, on a night when Democrats swept nearly everything else in Maine, Dunlap lost.

LePage finished about 5,400 votes ahead, just shy of 50%in the first round, and Dunlap conceded before the ranked-choice tabulation begins tomorrow.

In Maine’s First Congressional District, Rep. Chellie Pingree (Governor-elect Pingree’s mom) won with roughly 66% of the vote. A hundred miles north, the electorate looked very different, and it has only rewarded Democrats who earn Republican and “unenrolled” votes rather than scorn them.

US Rep-elect LePage's victory wasn't a sign that the Second District resisted the 2026 “blue” wave. It was the cost of driving out the one Democrat who had shown, again and again, how to win there.