Shawn Griffiths
California’s nonpartisan primary system is built around a simple promise: Every voter gets a say. No matter their party affiliation or lack thereof, any voter can choose any candidate running for each state office under this system.
Democrats, Republicans, independents, and voters registered with minor parties all receive the same ballot for voter-nominated offices. Candidates for governor, Congress, the legislature, and statewide constitutional offices appear together on a single primary ballot.
The state – along with Washington and Alaska – has the most voter-inclusive primary system in the country. On top of primaries being open, California also sends a ballot to every voter, offers early voting, provides drop boxes, and has voting centers in several counties.
But access does not always translate to participation. There are noticeable turnout gaps in California that voters don’t hear enough about.
Take, for example, the state’s Latino population.
Latinos make up an enormous segment of the California population. NALEO’s 2024 California Latino electorate profile found that Latinos made up about 40% of the state’s population and accounted for over 90% of the eligible-electorate growth over the last decade.
The state’s population is increasingly Latino, but that population strength does not fully translate into likely-voter strength. PPIC’s California voter profile found that Latinos only make up 29% of likely voters. White Californians, by contrast, are 36% of adults, but 50% of likely voters.
This is not an issue of apathy. NALEO’s longer-term turnout data shows the Latino vote nearly tripled from 1.6 million in 2000 to 4.5 million in 2020.
The bigger issue is what happens after voters register: whether they receive useful information, whether campaigns contact them, whether ballots are easy to complete, whether voters feel represented by the candidates, and whether they believe voting will change anything.
California Has More Registered Voters Than Ever – But Some Groups Remain Underrepresented
The secretary of state’s latest report for the June 2 primary shows California had more than 23.1 million registered voters as of April 3. That is up from about 22 million at the same point before the 2022 gubernatorial primary.
The percentage of eligible Californians registered to vote also increased from 81.65% to 84.83%. That is the good news
The same report shows that Democrats make up about 45% of the registered voter population, while Republicans make up 25% and No Party Preference voters make up just under 23%. This does not count the nearly 1 million voters registered as “American Independent.”
No matter how voters are registered, they have the same access to elections that fall under California’s nonpartisan primary system.
In the last gubernatorial election, in 2022, PPIC found that roughly one-third of registered voters cast ballots in that primary. The 7.28 million votes cast set a record high for a California gubernatorial primary.
In fact, under Top Two, California tends to have higher primary turnout than most other states. But even a third of the electorate in 2022 meant most registered voters did not participate.
Independent Voters Have Access, But Campaigns Aren’t Speaking to Them
Independent voters in California do not have to ask permission from a party to vote for governor, Congress, the legislature, secretary of state, attorney general, insurance commissioner, or other voter-nominated offices. Nonpartisan primaries give them complete access.
However, Republican and Democratic candidates tend to treat primary elections as if California still has the closed primary system it used prior to Proposition 14’s passage in 2010 – which created the Top Two system.
Campaigns still lean heavily on party networks. The media still frames primary contests through Democratic and Republican strategy. Fundraising appeals target partisan fears. And independent voters are not treated like they have direct power in the June primary.
Even though they do – a lot of power, if they vote. They could completely shift the electoral landscape by voting in June AND November.
PPIC found that independent likely voters are far more moderate than party voters: 51% of independent likely voters identify as moderate, compared with 31% of Democratic likely voters and 22% of Republican likely voters.
Independents are also split in their partisan leanings: 39% lean Democratic, 26% lean Republican, and 34% do not lean toward either party. This makes them potentially decisive, especially in races where candidates from the same party fight over the same base.
The debate over turnout is often reduced to election mechanics: mail ballots, drop boxes, vote centers, ballot deadlines, and how long it takes to count votes. These issues matter, but the deeper question is whether voters are being given a reason to participate.
This is where campaigns and media coverage matter.
For example, if the governor’s race is covered mainly as a Democratic panic over whether two Republicans could advance, many voters outside the party structure may tune out. If down-ballot races are ignored, voters may not understand why the primary matters.
If congressional redistricting changed district lines but voters are not told how their districts changed, they may not grasp what is at stake. If independent voters are treated as spectators, many will act like spectators.
Shawn Griffiths
Why All This Matters to the Latino Vote
There is no question that California has made elections accessible. All voters are included in the primaries. Every voter gets a mail-in ballot. And, the state has created several avenues for voters to cast their ballots.
Cara Brown McCormick
But how much attention are election administrators, campaigns, and the media giving to Latino voters? This is important because the state can make voting easy on paper, but if voters aren’t being reached or feel included, then they won’t participate.
Latinos Use Mail Voting, But Less Than the Statewide Electorate and With Higher Rejection Rates
California now sends every active registered voter a ballot in the mail. For the 2026 primary, county officials began mailing ballots on May 4, and voters can return them by mail, drop box, county office, or in person.
But Latino voters do not use vote-by-mail in exactly the same way as the overall electorate.
USC’s Center for Inclusive Democracy found that in the 2024 general election, about 82% of California voters cast vote-by-mail ballots. The most common method statewide was returning a mail ballot by drop box at 33%, followed by USPS mail at 32.6%.
In-person voting was at 18.2%, which illustrates how much emphasis California has put on mail-in ballots.
However, Latino voters were different. USC found that nearly a quarter of this group cast ballots in person in 2024. Not only was this higher than the overall statewide electorate, but only 25.9% of Latino voters returned ballots through the mail.
The most common voting method by this group was returning a vote-by-mail ballot to a drop box, at 31%.
Sending every voter a ballot does not mean every group uses that ballot the same way. Latino voters appear more likely than the overall electorate to want or need an in-person voting option, a staffed location, or a drop box.
But there’s more to this story, because it is not just about who receives a ballot. It is also about whose ballot gets counted.
USC found that 0.9% of all California vote-by-mail ballots were rejected in the 2024 general election. Latino voters had a higher rejection rate: 1.2%, compared with 0.7% for white non-Latino voters, 0.9% for black voters, and 1.0% for Asian American voters.
For Latinos, rejected ballots were especially likely to involve signature mismatch. USC found that 65.6% of rejected Latino vote-by-mail ballots were rejected for non-matching signatures, compared with 59% of rejected ballots overall.
In other words, these voters may need more targeted information on signature requirements, ballot tracking, ballot curing, drop-off options, and deadlines.
Spanish-Language Turnout Reveals Another Large Gap
The secretary of state’s 2024 primary Voter’s Choice Act report found turnout varied sharply by language preference. English-language voters had a statewide turnout rate of around 36% in the 2024 primary, while Spanish-language voters had a turnout rate of roughly 20%.
That does not capture all Latino voters – many Latinos prefer English-language materials – but it is still important. It points to a specific participation problem among voters who interact with the election system in Spanish.
Notably, the Voter’s Choice Act (VCA) is a county opt-in program, meaning it is up to individual counties to decide to adopt it, giving voters more options, more locations, and more days to vote. This year, the total opt-in number is at 30 counties.
The same VCA report on language access found that non-English-speaking voters in VCA counties were slightly more likely than English-speaking voters to vote by mail in 2022, but turnout still varied by language.
The report recommended more focused outreach to non-English voters ages 18 to 29, stronger partnerships with community groups, and easier-to-find translated materials. After all, vote-by-mail ballots and drop boxes only help if voters receive election materials in a language they understand.
Both Parties Get So Much Wrong When It Comes to Latino Voters
Republican and Democratic leaders often make assumptions about the Latino community. Specifically, that this is a guaranteed Democratic turnout bloc. The reality is, Latino voters are not a monolith and are far more independent than either party’s narrative treats them.
NALEO’s 2024 report found that 55% of Latino registered voters were Democrats, 16% were Republicans, and 30% were not affiliated with either major party. But it also should be noted that even party registration doesn’t mean absolute party loyalty.
On-the-ground research finds that Latino voters have broad political views and do not always fall along strict partisan or ideological lines. But given how many are not registered with a party, this means many are ignored on the primary campaign trail entirely.
And when campaigns reach out to Latino voters – it does not connect on a personal level.
Campaigns know how important Latino voters are in 2026. LAist reported on Spanish-language campaigning in the governor’s race, including Xavier Becerra using Spanish publicly and saying some voters better understand his platform in Spanish.
AP also reported that Becerra launched a Spanish-only TikTok campaign aimed at Hispanic and Latino voters.
Tom Steyer has also been reported courting Latinos directly, including in Santa Ana, though that kind of outreach can raise the question of whether candidates are building sustained relationships or only showing up visibly once ballots are out.
Outreach often appears candidate-specific, late-cycle, language-focused (rather than a bilingual approach), or symbolic (meaning it doesn’t tend to be a direct or personal approach).
CalMatters provides the evidence to back this up. A report on Prop 50 found that many Latino voters who cast a ballot for President Donald Trump used the 2025 special election to express their anger or dissatisfaction with him.
“These Latinos, even the ones who voted for Trump in 2024, were pissed off at him,” said Ben Tulchin, a San Francisco-based Democratic pollster. “They feel deceived by Trump and his promises.”
Democratic leaders assume this means a guaranteed shift to vote their way in 2026. But as CalMatters notes, “while a strong showing for Prop. 50 might confirm dissatisfaction with the GOP and the Trump administration, it doesn’t necessarily mean those voters will support Democrats.”
Or… vote at all.
The article revealed increasing skepticism with both parties. One voter told CalMatters she does not always understand who is running or how to fill out her ballot, and another said he did not vote on Prop. 50 and probably would not vote in the midterms.
“Was Prop. 50 an indicator of anything ideological or a return home? Nope, not even one little bit,” said conservative political consultant Mike Madrid. “They’re rejecting the party of power that is not prioritizing their economic concerns.”
On a national level, that means the GOP. But on a state level, that could mean the Democratic Party. How voters cast their ballot on Prop 50 largely had to do with national issues. But the 2026 elections are all about what is happening in California.
All this evidence shows that Latino voters are often politically disconnected, under-contacted, or unconvinced that either party is prioritizing their economic concerns.
The Races Where the Turnout Gap Could Matter Most
If Latinos and other electoral demographics that have a noticeable turnout gap (like NPP and independents) vote, they could shape several types of races in 2026.
In the governor’s race, a crowded field means small differences in turnout will determine who makes it to November. In statewide down-ballot races, lower-information contests like insurance commissioner, controller, treasurer, and secretary of state could be shaped by voters who are most likely to return ballots early and consistently.
In congressional races redrawn under Prop. 50, voters may be casting ballots in districts with new boundaries, new partisan dynamics, and new national attention. And, their vote could matter in ways it didn’t prior to this election cycle.
It all comes down to who turns out. Party insiders want voters that are not guaranteed votes for them to stay home. Operatives in the Republican and Democratic Parties are now even working together to disenfranchise anyone who is not a party member by repealing the nonpartisan primary.
Shawn Griffiths
They don’t think independent voters matter, which means they don’t think many Latino voters matter. But if Latinos showed up in this cycle, they could send a powerful message to Sacramento.
