Cara Brown McCormick
SAN DIEGO COUNTY, CALIF. - It’s springtime in a non-election year. A time to decompress from political commentary, prep for Fourth of July parties, and gear up for summer vacations. But a funny thing happened on the way to sun and fun, in one of the world’s most desirable vacation spots:
San Diego County Supervisor Nora Vargas, re-elected by voters just last fall, unexpectedly resigned shortly thereafter. Six months later, South County’s supervisorial district residents are grappling with the dreaded odd-year “special elections” to fill out the remainder of Vargas’s four-year term.
As with most special elections, voter turnout is expected to be low. In April’s seven-candidate primary, Chula Vista Mayor John McCann took first place and Imperial Beach Mayor Paloma Aguirre came in second. Now, taxpayers are footing the bill for a two-person runoff scheduled for July 1.
The July turnout is expected to be even lower than April’s dismal 17.8%, raising an important question: What does this all mean for independent, nonpartisan voters?
Independent Voters Could Swing the Outcome
Both John McCann and Paloma Aguirre will benefit from heavily funded turnout operations run by their respective parties: Republicans for McCann, Democrats for Aguirre.
But unaffiliated voters are routinely overlooked in special elections. They often don’t receive partisan mailers, field outreach, or reminders that an election is even happening.
Yet, with turnout projected to be in the single digits, even a modest number of independent voters could change the outcome in the race.
Each candidate for Supervisor has a demographic advantage. McCann represents Chula Vista, the county’s second-largest city, and roughly half of the supervisorial district. Aguirre is the mayor of small Imperial Beach, but she’s a Latina Democrat in a mostly Latino district that is heavily Democratic.
The Issues and the Money
Aguirre’s campaign has emphasized her environmental leadership and advocacy for Tijuana River cleanup. McCann has focused on Chula Vista’s stable city budget and economic growth.
Despite their partisan differences, the two mayors have a reputation for working well together. But that tone has been overshadowed by the usual hyperbolic attacks -- most funded by independent expenditure committees, not the campaigns themselves.
For many voters, the most compelling issue may be breaking the current 2–2 split on the County Board of Supervisors. Acting Chair Terra Lawson-Remer made that choice clear in a recent email to voters in the district.
Your Vote Matters. Especially If You're Independent.
In a race this close, independent voters could tip the balance. Here are links to each candidate’s campaign:
So, if you live in San Diego’s South Bay, don’t forget to check your mail for a ballot before you head to the beach.