Special Election to Replace Sex Offender Produces Conflicting Poll Results

The special election to replace San Diego Mayor Bob Filner, who resigned after being the subject of a series of bizarre sex scandal charges, is producing conflicting polling results right out of the 2012 partisan playbook. The local paper (SDUT) and television station (TV10) teamed up to produce a poll which claims dramatically different results than one commissioned by the local labor council.

The Labor Council backs the young Latino councilman whose unexpected entry in the race may have complicated things for Republican turned independent turned Democrat Nathan Fletcher. The newspaper unabashedly supports Republican City Councilman Kevin Faulconer.

What the two polls have in common is pegging Faulkner as the leader in the multiple candidate field.

In 2012, Republicans throughout the country were caught flat footed by what proved to be faulty turnout models. Forecasting who is going to vote is often the trickiest part of polling and the Democrats appeared to have mastered the art in the last presidential contest.

But, low turnout special elections generally favor Republicans, so who knows who has the right numbers, but if the labor poll is right the young Latino Democrat appears to have the momentum for the kind of stunning upset that confound pundits in a town dominated by Republicans for decades.

If the Republican poll is right, Faulconer is stretching out the kind of primary finish that could make him hard to catch in the runoff. Either presents a challenge for Fletcher who was the front runner in all early polling.

Of course, the Fletcher camp claims a third set of numbers which conflict with both published polls. Guess that’s why they hold the election.

Photo Credit: U-T San Diego

Poll from Working Families for a Better San Diego – November 3, 2013