Shawn Griffiths
It is now common knowledge that most congressional elections have already been decided. Though November 3 is days away, the winners in approximately 90% of contests were decided in partisan primary elections months ago.
Shawn Griffiths
Still, this does not mean there won’t be elections worth watching. The balance of power in Congress will be decided, but it will not be decided by Republicans or Democrats. In a few key races, it could be decided by independent voters.
That is, if they turn out.
In some districts, voters not registered with a party can represent as much as a third of the electorate. In some, they are the majority. In others, a history of razor-thin electoral margins shifts the focus to this voting bloc.
The thing about independent voters is they are not a monolithic group. Being registered independent or identifying as independent does not mean a person is riding the fence or is undecided. Many have already made up their minds.
It also means neither side can assume their support—and doing so could end up being a costly mistake in the few competitive districts there are in the US.
Here are 10 congressional races where the independent vote deserves particular attention.
1. California's 13th Congressional District: The Central Valley's Razor-Thin Battleground
Candidates: Democratic Rep. Adam Gray vs. Republican Kevin Lincoln, former Stockton mayor.
California’s 13th District covers portions of the north San Joaquin Valley, including Merced, Stanislaus, San Joaquin, Madera, and Fresno Counties.
It is a district in which the Democratic incumbent won his seat in 2024 by just 187 votes. However, the district’s boundaries have since changed under Proposition 50.
According to CalMatters, Democrats account for 41.6% of registered voters, Republicans 27.4%, and No Party Preference voters 23.2%.
While Democrats have the registration advantage and Cook Political Report rates the district as “Likely D,” that hasn’t always guaranteed victory in the Central Valley.
All eyes will be on the 1-in-4 voters registered independent of any party.
2. California's 22nd Congressional District: Can A Republican Incumbent Keep His Seat in a Democratic-Leaning District?
Candidates: Republican Rep. David Valadao vs. Democrat Randy Villegas, Visalia school board member and college professor.
Also in the Central Valley, the 22nd District includes parts of Kings, Tulare, Fresno, and Kern counties. It was redrawn under Prop 50 to be more favorable to Democrats.
And yet, Cook still rates it a toss-up. This is because Valadao has a record of cross-party appeal.
Following redistricting, Democrats now account for 42% of registered voters, compared with 26% for Republicans. No Party Preference voters make up 24% of the electorate.
The question in this election is whether Valadao still holds on to same appeal among voters that has allowed him to outperform other Republicans in his district.
Or, will Villegas unseat him?
Either way, it will be the independent vote that decides.
3. California's 48th Congressional District: An Open Seat and a Large Independent Electorate
Candidates: Democratic San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert vs. Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond — Open Seat.
California's redrawn 48th District includes much of eastern and northern San Diego County and portions of Riverside County. This became an open contest when Republican Rep. Darrell Issa announced his retirement.
The district's registration numbers show why independent voters will be important to watch. The electorate is 37% Democratic, 33% Republican, and 22% No Party Preference.
With such a narrow margin between the two major parties, the most critical vote doesn’t have a party label. Cook currently has the race rated “Lean D.”
4. Alaska's At-Large Congressional District: An Independent Could Make History
Candidates: Republican Rep. Nick Begich, Independent Bill Hill, commercial fisherman, Democrat Eric Hafner, and Libertarian Jim McDermott, college business instructor.
Alaska only has one congressional district, making it a statewide contest where voters will use ranked choice voting to select their next representative.
Matt Shinners
The use of RCV isn’t the only thing that makes this contest unique. It is also one of the best opportunities for an independent candidate to win this cycle.
The top two contenders in this contest are Begich and Hill. As IVN recently reported, an October Data for Progress survey put Begich ahead by just two points, 51% to Hill's 49%, in a simulated final ranked-choice round.
Among self-identified independents, Hill led Begich 64% to 36% in that survey's final round. Cook’s rating has since changed from “Likely R” to “Lean R.”
Here’s the thing: Most Alaska voters are registered independent of a political party (63%, in fact), meaning they hold the most sway in this election.
5. Arizona's 1st Congressional District: Independents Rival the Republican Base
Candidates: Democrat Amish Shah, physician, vs. Republican Jay Feely, former NFL kicker — Open Seat.
Arizona's 1st District includes Scottsdale, Fountain Hills, Cave Creek, and portions of northeastern Phoenix.
Republican US Rep. David Schweikert chose not to seek re-election, creating an open contest in which Shah and Feely became their respective party’s nominee.
According to Axios, Republicans make up approximately 38% of registered voters, while independents and voters affiliated with minor parties account for 35%.
Democrats represent just over 26%.
Donald Trump carried the district by approximately three points in 2024. That was when Trump polled better with independents.
Now the question is: Will the national electoral landscape, as well as how public opinion has changed over the last two years, cause independents to go a different direction?
Neither Shaw nor Feely can win with their base support alone. They need the independent vote. Cook currently has the race rated “Lean D.”
6. Iowa's 1st Congressional District: An Independent Candidate Enters a Race Decided by 799 Votes
Candidates: Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R), Democrat Christina Bohannan, former state representative and law professor, and independent Michael Bridgford, small business owner.
Iowa's 1st District covers southeastern Iowa, including Iowa City, Davenport, and several rural communities.
This contest is a rematch between Miller-Meeks and Bonannan, who lost by 799 votes in 2024. However, this year there is also independent Michael Bridgford in the mix.
According to October 2026 state registration figures, approximately 154,000 active voters in the district have no party affiliation, which is about one-third of the electorate.
This was already expected to be a tight race, but Bridgford added an extra variable. Independent voters don’t necessarily have to support either major party candidate.
It is difficult to predict what the end result will be. Cook’s rating is “Lean D.”
7. Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District: More Than 100,000 Independent Voters Will Decide
Candidates: Democrat Denise Powell, small business owner, Republican Brinker Harding, commercial real estate professional, and Libertarian Eric Michael Foreman, property management — Open Seat.
The Omaha-centered 2nd District is an open contest after Republican Rep. Don Bacon announced his retirement. It also has a history of ticket-splitting.
In 2024, Kamala Harris won its presidential vote while Bacon won reelection to Congress—a phenomenon that may be directly tied to its large independent voter population.
October 2026 registration data shows 109,538 nonpartisan voters in the district, accounting for nearly 26% of registered voters.
This is more than enough to cover the 13,600-voter registration gap between Republicans and Democrats.
Polling appears to favor Powell and Cook rates this contest “Likely D.” However, given the district’s history, neither party can afford to treat this as a guaranteed result.
8. Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District: A Rematch That Could Be Determined By The Independent Vote
Candidates: Republican Rep. Scott Perry vs. Democrat Janelle Stelson, former TV news anchor.
Pennsylvania's 10th District covers Harrisburg, Dauphin County, and portions of Cumberland and York counties.
This contest is a rematch between Perry and Stelson. In 2024, Perry won 53.8% to 46.2%. The gap between the candidates was 5,100 votes.
Now they are competing again.
A recent New York Times/Siena University poll, conducted October 16–22 among 404 likely voters, has the candidates tied at 48%.
A September Franklin & Marshall College survey found Stelson ahead among independent voters, although its independent subsample was relatively small.
Still, this matters because Cook rates the district as “Lean D,” meaning independent voters could make the difference in this tight race.
9. New York's 17th Congressional District: A Republican Incumbent in a District Harris Won
Candidates: Republican Rep. Mike Lawler vs. Democrat Cait Conley, former national security official.
New York's 17th District includes Rockland and Putnam counties and parts of Westchester and Dutchess counties, in the suburbs north of New York City.
There aren’t many races in New York to watch. Most have already been decided in closed primary elections that turned out just 7% of voters.
IVN Editorial Board
However, voters in this district have a recent history of voting one way in a presidential election and another way for Congress.
Kamala Harris carried it by the slimmest of margins, 49.9% to 49.3%, in 2024. Yet, voters also reelected Lawler to Congress.
According to City & State New York, recent polling has shown a close race and Cook rates it a “Toss Up.”
10. Michigan's 7th Congressional District: A Political Battleground in the Middle of the State
Candidates: Republican Rep. Tom Barrett, Democrat William Lawrence (D), co-founder of the climate advocacy group Sunrise Movement, and Green Party candidate Shane Dedrick.
Michigan's 7th District centers on Lansing and includes Clinton, Ingham, Livingston, and Shiawassee counties, along with portions of neighboring counties.
The question in this election is whether the Republican incumbent can maintain his edge in an otherwise hotly contested district.
In 2024, Trump received approximately 49.9% of the presidential vote in the district compared with Harris's 48.6%, while Barrett won the congressional contest with 50.3%.
With such close margins, Cook rates this contest a Toss Up and how independents cast their votes will be what moves the needle one way or the other.