Alaska Independent Bill Hill Has Caught Up to Nick Begich, New Polls Say

Two new polls show independent Bill Hill within a few points of Rep. Nick Begich in the race for Alaska’s at-large US House seat.

A Data for Progress survey of 694 likely voters (Oct. 8–16) has Begich ahead 51% to 49% in a simulated final ranked-choice round.

A Public Policy Polling survey of 578 registered voters (Oct. 14–15) has Hill one point behind on first choices, 45% to 44%. The full PPP poll has not been publicly released.

(Both firms are Democratic-aligned. Media Bias/Fact Check reports Silver Bulletin grades of B for Data for Progress, and A- for PPP. For more on weighing these firms, see our field guide to the pollsters behind the numbers.)

How The Race Has Moved

Begich has polled between 45% and 48% in every survey since July, close to his 44.6% primary result. Hill’s share has risen from 31% in September to 42%–44% now. The two firms showing him closest are both Democratic-aligned.

Data for Progress’s own trend is the cleanest comparison. Since its August survey, Begich has gone from 47% to 48% and Hill from 37% to 42%. Over the same period, the share of voters who hadn’t heard enough to rate Hill fell from 47% to 18%.

Independents Are Moving the Whole Field, In Two Directions

Most midterm elections are a referendum on the party in power; in this case, the Republicans. In September, the House race stood apart from the rest of the ballot as far as how that anti-incumbent sentiment was playing out, with the Republican having a much stronger position in that race.

The Senate and governor’s races have been close or lean Democratic in recent polls. By October, the three races had moved toward each other.

The House race narrowed toward Hill while the Senate race narrowed toward Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), and independents are driving both shifts. 

Among voters who call themselves independent, Hill went from leading Begich 50–30 in August to 64–36 in October’s final round. In the Senate race, the same voters moved the other way: Peltola’s lead among them slipped from 68–32 to 63–37.

These voters are expressing a more nuanced view than many political commentators would have people believe, showing that they’re not secret partisans or leaners.

They’re splitting their votes between the incumbent and the challenger. In some cases, that’s a Democrat, while in others, it’s an independent. And they’re arguably searching for a balance between the two parties rather than investing wholeheartedly in a single ideological approach to governance.

Among independents, Hill’s vote share now matches Peltola’s. What’s left of the gap in the polling comes from Democrats. In Data for Progress’s final round, Peltola wins 98% of Democrats and Hill wins 94%. The difference traces to Eric Hafner, a Democrat campaigning from federal prison, who still draws 17% of Democratic first choices.

When Hafner is eliminated, some of those ballots name no other candidate and drop out instead of moving to Hill.

What It Means

Two major questions arise from the polls: whether Democrats who rank Hafner first also rank Hill higher than Begich; and whether Alaska’s independents, even if moving towards the Republicans in some races, continue to split their ticket for the independent in another.

As Hill has made his case to Alaskans and seen his name recognition rise, so to have his standings in the polls. Correlation doesn’t equal causation, but sometimes that’s all you have to go on in an election. With early voting started in Alaska and election day less than two weeks away, it’s a race to see if Hill can keep up this pace and continue to move voters in his direction.