Susan Collins Has Defied Political Gravity for 30 Years. Trump May Finally Pull Her Down

Editor's Note: The following commentary originally published on the "Unorganized Territory" Substack and has been republished on IVN with permission from the author.

It’s accepted as conventional wisdom: politically, there aren’t many places more independent-minded or idiosyncratic than Maine.

The nation’s most rural state has more Unenrolled voters than Republicans or Democrats.

A majority of its towns manage their annual business through an arcane series of community meetings in late winter or early spring, where residents gather in gymnasiums or grange halls and repeatedly thrust placards into the air to vote on the list of questions on their local warrant.

Twice, in the past half century, Independents have served in the state house as Maine governor.

One of them, Angus King, is now a U.S. Senator—an Independent who caucuses with the Democrats.

Maine’s retiring Congressman, Democratic Representative Jared Golden, has frequently bucked his party’s leadership on issues that divide his district, where Donald Trump won three straight times.

More than any other politician, statistic or governing custom, it’s King and Golden’s colleague in the Maine delegation, Republican U.S. Senator Susan Collins, whose three-decades in Washington now embody the unpredictable, norm-defying nature of politics in Maine.

But as Labor Day, and the sprint to November 3rd loom, there’s growing evidence that the dynamics that have allowed Collins to maintain her grip on the electorate may not be enough to fight off the ill winds of 2026.

On August 19^th, Susan Collins stood on the weathered, cracked pavement at the former Lincoln Paper and Tissue Mill, dilapidated buildings behind her and U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright by her side. Collins, Wright and business and community leaders had gathered to promote upcoming construction of a 50-acre, 85-megawatt battery facility that would store enough energy to power 65,000 homes. The project is partially funded by a grant from a program created under the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law, which Collins helped to negotiate. The senator has also delivered $7.5 million for other redevelopment projects at the site through her position on the Appropriations Committee.

Though not a campaign event, it was the type of official engagement that has nonetheless delivered consistent political benefits to the Senator throughout her time in office, especially in years when she’s faced the voters. Local television stations show up in droves, cover the proceedings, and produce segments for digital and TV audiences, who view them sometimes before or after seeing one of the non-stop ads from the Senator’s reelection campaign, touting the massive sums she’s delivered for projects, initiatives and infrastructure in every corner of the state.

It’s been a remarkably effective strategy that’s helped Collins to defy political gravity and hang on as the only Republican U.S. Senator in a state that has repeatedly voted against her party in Presidential elections.

But the days immediately before and after the event in Lincoln show why 2026 may be the year when Maine’s electorate finally sheds some of its nonconformist cred and follows the national mood and zeitgeist.

In recent months, Donald Trump’s cabinet secretaries, including Chris Wright, have faced withering questioning from journalists and lawmakers on the administration’s tariff policies, the surge in energy prices due to the war, and whether the U.S. had been adequately prepared for the likelihood that Iran would halt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

These same officials have also been fanning out across the country to tout policies and programs in states with Senate and House races that will decide the makeup of the next Congress. These visits are routine in an election year. They become a little trickier to navigate in years like this one, where the president is persona non grata, doesn’t seem to care all that much about his political blast radius, and where each new day brings the promise of more unwanted headlines for the party in power.

Consider the past two weeks inside the political crucible Susan Collins now inhabits.

On Monday August 17^th Reuters/Ipsos released a poll showing President Trump’s approval rating had fallen two points to an all-time low of 33%—a much lower number at this point in a midterm cycle than those of recent predecessors whose parties went down to wave-like defeats in November. The poll sparked a new round of recriminations in the press and political class about the sinking fortunes of Trump and his party.

Collins met up with Wright and others in Lincoln two days later.

None of Trump’s cabinet secretaries are all that popular right now. But the event did give the Senator a chance to focus on the work she does for Maine in Washington

The planned facility will not only breathe new life into a vacant former mill site. It will also create new jobs and strengthen energy security and grid reliability in central Maine. Once completed, it will be the first facility of its kind in New England able to provide enough electricity to power approximately 65,000 homes, roughly every household in Penobscot County, for 100 hours.

The project received a nearly $150 million federal award through a grid resilience program I helped establish as a lead negotiator of the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law. I also secured a total of $7.5 million through my role on the Senate Appropriations Committee for infrastructure improvements and continued redevelopment at the Lincoln Technology Park, where the new energy storage facility will be located.

Sen. Susan Collins, @SenatorCollins on X, August 20, 2026

Any reprieve was short lived.

The following day came news that Vice President JD Vance, who is political kryptonite to everyone except the hardest of the hardcore MAGAs, would return to Maine the following week to campaign for Republicans.

Trump then unleashed a political earthquake on Saturday, dropping 50% tariffs on $20B worth of Canadian goods after trade talks between the two neighbors fell apart.

The president’s lack of concern for members of his own party running for reelection in Northern border states, and his disregard for the economic impact on effected industries and businesses, unleashed a circular firing squad among Republicans in tough races with Democratic challengers, who were more than happy to pile on.

The president’s lack of concern for members of his own party running for reelection in Northern border states, and his disregard for the economic impact on effected industries and businesses, unleashed a circular firing squad among Republicans in tough races with Democratic challengers, who were more than happy to pile on.

On Monday, with the media feasting on the political and economic fallout of a deepening trade war, JD Vance landed in Bangor, motorcaded to Brewer and took the stage at defense technology company Compotech.

Vance went on to frame the election as a desperate fight against the dark forces of socialism.

Susan Collins did not attend the Vance event.

Neither did gubernatorial candidate Bobby Charles, a MAGA adjacent Republican, who trails Democrat Hannah Pingree by double digits in the polls.

Charles’s has aligned himself, unapologetically, with much of the president’s agenda, and in recent audio leaked to the Bangor Daily News, said he’d ask Donald Trump to deploy ICE agents to secure the vote at Maine polling places.

His decision to skip the event was a bit of a surprise. Collins’s absence was anything but.

For Collins to defy the odds and win again in November, a few things need to happen. Trump supporters in Maine must be convinced to get off their couches in a depressing election year for MAGA, and turn out for a senator they’ve never been all thrilled with.

Voters in the middle—Republican, Democrat and Unenrolled—must support her again in the same decisive way they did six years ago.

The problem, this time around, is the uniquely horrible political landscape for the party in charge.

It makes her race six years ago, where she trailed in every single poll before Election Day, look like a walk in the park.

In 2026, the bad news just keeps coming.

On Tuesday, trade tensions escalated further as Canada announced $20B in retaliatory, dollar-for-dollar tariffs against the U.S. Then, the following evening, a bit of good news for Maine’s lobster industry: Finance Canada would leave seafood off the list.

Donald Trump, of course, had his own “special” surprise ready in response to Canada’s retaliation.

On Thursday, the president sat at his desk in the Oval Office, an easel off to his right displaying a map of the Great Lakes that looked like it would be a perfect fit in the geography nook of an elementary school classroom. Except this map appeared to contain an error. That lake, the one all the way to the left with Toronto and the greater Rochester area along its shores, had been renamed Lake America.

A short time later, lest anyone tuning in think it was all a big joke, an aide placed a leather-bound executive order in front of Trump. The president signed it and the name change was official.