US Rep. Eric Swalwell has officially suspended his campaign for California governor in the midst of multiple sexual misconduct and assault allegations. He also announced Monday that he is resigning from Congress.
Up to this point, he led every other Democrat in the governor’s race and was in prime position to take one of the top two spots in November. Now, the big question in California is: Which candidate will get his voters' support?
While campaigns and polling agencies scramble to put out new data to answer this question, the Independent Voter Project (IVP) already knows. This is because IVP, a co-publisher of Independent Voter News, looked deeper into voter preferences in a February poll.
When IVP conducted its first statewide poll on the governor’s race, it was quickly picked up by the New York Times. It is the only truly nonpartisan poll listed by NYT as others have been commissioned by campaigns, parties, or partisan interest groups.
It is also unique in that it asked voters not just to indicate their most preferred candidate, but their second choice as well.
At the time, Swalwell placed second in first-choice selections after Republican Sheriff Chad Bianco, even though a crowded Democratic field split party voters. Swalwell was the preferred candidate for 17.89% of respondents.
Much has changed in the race since then. Bianco seized ballots in Riverside County, Steve Hilton received President Donald Trump’s endorsement, and of course, Swalwell dropped out over the weekend.
According to IVP’s poll, the candidate who will likely benefit most from Swalwell’s exit is former US Rep Katie Porter. She was the most preferred by his voters with 34% of their second-choice picks.
Former US Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra is also likely to get a needed bump. He has struggled to break into the top 5 candidates in the field, but he was the second choice for 16.65% of Swalwell’s voters.
Close behind Becerra was Tom Steyer at 15.19%, a candidate that has since risen in other polls. Steyer has been shown to be neck-and-neck with Porter in some cases and has consistently polled higher than Becerra.
Porter, like Swalwell, benefits from high name recognition. Not only is she a former member of Congress, but she also ran for US Senate in 2024. It was a controversial election as winner Adam Schiff put millions of dollars to prop up a Republican in the primary that he could easily beat.
After the June election, Porter claimed that the race was rigged against her, referring to the $11 million in spending by Schiff and his allies to keep the general election from being a same-party contest between the two Democrats.
Shawn Griffiths
Some news outlets like CBS News and The Hill have published claims that there is a connection between Porter and Cheyenne L. Hunt, an activist and influencer who was among the first to post about the allegations against Swalwell.
Porter denies any relationship with Hunt and other influencers who have circulated the allegations. On Friday, April 10, many of the women Hunt has alluded to in her posts came forward.
What impact this has on the race remains to be seen as data shows Porter and Swalwell pulled from the same voter pool.
Swalwell and Porter both polled well among voters with strong party loyalty, according to IVP’s poll. Trust in the Democratic Party among Swalwell voters who picked Porter as their second choice was 94.6%.
However, it won’t be party loyalists who decide the winner of the Top Two nonpartisan primary. It will be the independent and undecided voters who make up a large segment of the California electorate.
Notably, nearly 20% of Becerra (17.4%) and Steyer (19.2%) supporters were registered NPP, though party trust was lower among Becerra voters at 81%.
There is one candidate who has bolstered his presence in the race considerably since the release of IVP's poll and that is San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan. At the time of the poll, he was only in the race for a week.
It's possible he could find himself in the double digits after Swalwell's exit.
One thing is for certain: A seismic shift is already happening on the campaign trail. The top performing Democrat leaving has a far greater impact on this race than if "single-digit candidates" dropped out.
It may even completely erase the already unlikely prospect of two Republicans advancing to November.
We will know more after the Independent Voter Project conducts a new poll on the governor's race and other top priority issues for California voters. Stay tuned.