Poll: California's Independents weigh in

Poll: California's Independents weigh in
Published: 29 Dec, 2010
4 min read

The  December 2010 statewide survey of Californians by the Public Policy  Institute of California (PPIC) provides an in-depth look at the opinions and  perceptions of the state’s Independent voters as we head into the new  year.

Published  earlier this month on the basis of interviews with over 2,000  California voters, the political affiliations of the poll’s respondents  roughly mirror official registration numbers in the state at large: 45%  Democrat, 34% Republican and 20% Independent, with 1% in support of  another party.  (Official registration numbers released earlier this year revealed that the California electorate is  44.5% Democrat, 30.7% Republican, 20.1% Independent and 4.5% third  party.)  Asked whether they lean more toward the Democratic Party or the  Republican Party, 37% of Independents told the PPIC that they were  closer to the Democrats, while 30% said they lean toward the  Republicans, and 31% volunteered that they do not think of themselves as  closer to one or the other.

The  wide-ranging poll surveyed opinion on the November 2010 general  election, a number of the state’s nine ballot propositions, the  initiative process itself, the political climate at the state and  national level, and attitudes toward state and federally elected  officials.  According to the survey, Independents propelled Jerry Brown  and Barbara Boxer to double-digit wins over their Republican rivals.  As  the PPIC reports:

“In the governor’s race, Democrat Brown beat  Republican Meg Whitman by 13 points (54% to 41%) with the support of 86%  of Democrats and 56% of Independents.”  Similarly, the poll found,  “Boxer was re-elected to her US Senate seat by 10 points (52% to 42%)  with the support of most Democrats (86%) and Independents (53).”

With  regard to the November 2010 ballot propositions, Independents supported  Proposition 19, the marijuana legalization initiative, 55% to 45%; they  opposed Proposition 23, which would have suspended California’s air  pollution control law, 36% to 64%; and they supported Proposition 25,  which requires a simple majority in the state legislature to pass a  budget, 57% to 43%.

On  many issues, the opinions of Independents track very closely with those  of Democrats and Republicans, revealing a transpartisan consensus  critical of the political and economic status-quo.  59% of Independents,  62% of Republicans and 68% of Democrats state that jobs and the economy  are the most important issues facing the people of California today. Similarly, large majorities of Independents, Democrats and Republicans  disapprove of Arnold Schwarzenegger’s handling of the state's governorship.  The  state legislature fared even worse.  Only 18% of Democrats, 6% of  Republicans and 9% of Independents approve of the way that the California  legislature is handling its job.

These  approval numbers correlate closely with attitudes toward the state  government in general.  66% of Independents, 70% of Democrats and 69% of  Republicans said that the state government in Sacramento can be trusted  “to do what is right” only some of the time.  In the same vein, a  majority of Democrats, Republicans and Independents agree that “people  in state government waste a lot of the money we pay in taxes.”  On this  score, it is noteworthy that Californians are losing trust in one  another, let alone elected officials.  Though a slim majority of  Democrats state that they have at least a fair amount of trust and  confidence in California’s voters “when it comes to making public policy  at the ballot box,” a majority of Republicans and Independents have  little or no such trust and confidence in their fellow citizens.   According to the PPIC, this marks the first time in a statewide survey  that less than half of all respondents had at least a fair amount of  confidence in the state’s electorate.

The  opinions of Independents appear to diverge most strikingly from those  of Democrats and Republicans on issues that polarize supporters of the  major parties.  For instance, while 82% of Democrats approve of Barack  Obama’s handling of the presidency and 83% of Republicans disapprove of  the same, Independents are more conflicted than their partisan  counterparts.  54% approve of the job the president is doing, while 42%  disapprove.  On the other hand, majorities of Democrats (60%) and  Republicans (87%) disapprove of the way the US Congress is handling its  job, as do a majority of Independents (78%).  Similarly, while 79% of  Democrats said they would prefer to have the Congress controlled by  Democrats, and 82% of Republicans stated they would rather have the  Congress controlled by Republicans, 25% of Independents  volunteered that neither of the major parties should have control of the  federal legislature.  Of course, there is only one way to ensure that  neither the Democratic nor Republican party controls the Congress: elect  Independent and minor party candidates to public office.

See the full report at the website of the Public Policy Institute of California.

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