Matt Shinners
Independent Bill Hill is heading to the November ballot after finishing second in Alaska's Aug. 18 top-four open primary, setting up a race against Republican incumbent Rep. Nick Begich III for the state's at-large US House seat. With 396 out of 403 precincts reporting, Begich led with roughly 46.12% of the vote to Hill's 30.89%.
In Alaska's system, all candidates run in a single primary. The four candidates with the highest vote totals are then placed on the November general election ballot. Voters use ranked choice voting to rank those four candidates based on their preferences.
After the initial vote totals are counted, if no one has received over 50% of the vote, the candidate with the lowest total votes is eliminated. Everyone who voted for that eliminated candidate then has their second preference added to the tabulation, and this process repeats until a candidate has received over 50% of the vote.
In this system, then, Democrat Matt Schultz (8.04%) and Democrat Eric Hafner (3.80%) will also appear on the ballot this November. While these numbers aren't final, it's exceedingly unlikely that these top four will change.
Matt Schultz suspended his campaign and endorsed Hill before the primary, though he did so too late for his name to remain on the ballot. Under the RCV system used in the general election, however, voters are free to vote for Schultz as their first choice and Hill as their second, allowing them to express their preferences without needing to waste their vote on a candidate who is no longer campaigning.
Hill, a Dena'ina Athabascan raised in the Bristol Bay village of Kokhanok, spent decades as an educator—teacher, principal, and most recently superintendent of the Bristol Bay School District, a post he retired from in 2023 after being named the state's superintendent of the year. He's also a lifelong Bristol Bay commercial fisherman.
A political newcomer, Hill entered the race in January criticizing "billionaires, corporations, and politicians" for rigging the system, and has said he has never registered with either major party.
On fundraising, the incumbent Republican is significantly ahead, as is the case with most races between a major party candidate and an independent. FEC filings show Rep. Begich with a $5.5 million total fundraising haul, and a little over $3 million cash on hand heading into the general. Hill has raised a significant sum for someone who doesn't have major party backing—$1.34 million—but he still lags behind the incumbent, while outraising the Democrat ($865k). He heads into the general with $515k cash on hand.
An Aug. 3-5 poll from GBAO—a Democratic-aligned firm, surveying 500 likely voters with a 4.4% margin of error—showed Begich leading Hill 46-42% head-to-head. However, another poll done by Alaska Survey Research has Begich receiving 48% of the vote in the first round and hitting the 50% threshold in the second.
On issues, Hill has emphasized the cost of living, healthcare and grocery prices in rural Alaska, and what he calls corruption tied to concentrated wealth in Washington. He's declined to say which party he'd caucus with if elected.
Alaskans adopted the top-four system narrowly in 2020 and then, in 2024, rejected a repeal effort by the narrowest margin in state history: 737 votes out of nearly 321,000 cast. Opponents regrouped quickly, and a new repeal initiative, backed by Alaska Republican Party leaders and gubernatorial candidate Bernadette Wilson, will appear again on the November ballot alongside Hill's own race.
This means Alaskans could simultaneously send an independent to Congress and vote to dismantle the system that advocates argue makes independent and new party victories more feasible.