Matt Shinners
The US is headed into the final stretch of the 2026 campaign season, and independent candidates are steering toward November with something they rarely have in US politics: a real chance at winning.
Or, at the very least, to matter in ways they haven't in previous cycles due to the systemic hurdles they regularly face.
In several Senate races, Democratic withdrawals have cleared the way for independents to face Republicans one-on-one. Elsewhere, independent candidates are raising serious money, attracting national attention, picking up endorsements, and testing whether voters are willing to look beyond the two major parties.
There is no guarantee that independents will break through. Some candidates remain significant underdogs, others are navigating crowded ballots, and polling is still sparse in many races.
But as August comes to a close, the independent candidate story is no longer confined to a few isolated campaigns. From Senate contests in Nebraska, Idaho, and South Dakota to House and governor races across the US, independents are building momentum and an infrastructure that could make the final months of 2026 worth watching.
Fulcrum Watch: Senate, House, and Governor Updates as August Ends
Senate Races
Idaho — Todd Achilles in a clean two-way race. Achilles faces Republican Sen. Jim Risch head-on after the Democrat exited the primary. FEC filings through the end of June show Risch with a significant advantage: $3.56M cash on hand to Achilles' $194k. Each campaign has released their own commissioned polls showing very different results. Risch's poll sees him leading by 34 points, whereas Achilles' poll shows Risch up by only 4, with it switching to an Achilles lead of 5 on an "informed ballot" where more information is provided on both candidates.
Montana — a four-way race survives the deadline. Democrat Alani Bankhead did not withdraw by Aug. 10, leaving Seth Bodnar (I), Kurt Alme (R), Kyle Austin (L), and Bankhead (D) all on the ballot. Polls released by Bodnar's campaign ahead of the withdrawal deadline showed him even with Alme in a two-way race, but trailing by 15 points in a race with Bankhead on the ballot. The latter is now the reality he's facing in November.
South Dakota — Brian Bengs gets his one-on-one. Democrat Julian Beaudion suspended his campaign Aug. 4, leaving Bengs to face Sen. Mike Rounds directly. Bengs appeared on CNN with Jeff Zeleny on Aug. 16.
Nebraska — Osborn's opponent goes on the attack over caucusing. The Democratic field is now fully cleared: Cindy Burbank withdrew, formally leaving Osborn as the only alternative to Sen. Pete Ricketts. A poll commissioned by Osborn (via Impact Research) shows the race dead even, though prediction markets and political handicappers are still rating this leaning towards Republicans.
Colorado — Bob Chew puts real money behind his message. Forward Party nominee Bob Chew, a Navy veteran and retired engineering executive, launched a $1.3 million statewide TV ad buy in August in support of his message. No polling has included the candidate; the campaign is likely hoping this publicity will raise his profile in the public's eye and lead to his inclusion in future instruments.
Mississippi — the field is set. Ty Pinkins' November opponents are now confirmed: incumbent Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democratic nominee Scott Colom.
Looking ahead: Several of these candidates are slated to appear at the Independent National Convention, set for Sept. 23-25, to discuss what a concerted independent "fulcrum" could do in the US Senate. Each candidate with whom we've spoken has given a list of what they'd individually hope to accomplish.
House Races
California — Rep. Kevin Kiley heads into debate season. (I) Kevin Kiley came out as the top vote-getter in CA-6, despite the district being gerrymandered to be safely Democratic. Neither he nor the other candidate to advance, (D) Richard Pan, broke 25% of the vote. Kiley left the Republican Party but still caucuses with them; looking at the rest of the primary field, the Republican in the race drew 20% of the vote, while Democrats other than Pan received 32.5% of the vote. After publicly sparring over debate commitments, Pan and Kiley particiated in their first one was held in mid-August.
Wisconsin — Mike Thurow, a Milwaukee Fire Department captain, has drawn attention for a strong independent showing against six-term Rep. Glenn Grothman. He is one of the candidates endorsed by Working Class Heroes Fund, a Dan Osborn-affiliated PAC, highlighting the growing shared infrastructure supporting independent candidates.
Alaska — Hill advances in a crowded field. Independent Bill Hill, advanced alongside Rep. Nick Begich in the Aug. 18 top-four primary. He picked up a boost when Democrat Matt Schultz suspended his campaign and endorsed him last month. Begich carries Trump's endorsement and a lead across the polls, but he doesn't break 50% in any, showing room for movement for the independent.
Governor Races
Maine — Rick Bennett stakes out policy ground. With the governorship open on term limits, Rick Bennett laid out a climate and natural-resources agenda in Auburn on Aug. 20.
Tennessee — a cross-partisan case for Lauren Pinkston. The Chattanooga Times Free Press published a letter from a self-described lifelong Democrat and referencing her conservative mother, describing Pinkston as the first candidate they've ever agreed on.
Upcoming Primaries
Massachusetts — Sept. 1.
New Hampshire — Sept. 8.
Rhode Island — Sept. 9. Ken Block is running for governor as an independent.
Delaware — Sept. 15.