Latino Independents Could Decide California in 2026—If Anyone Bothers to Reach Them

Editor's Note: The following article originally published in CALatinoNews.com and has been republished on IVN as part of a partnership with Latino News Network.

California’s Latino independent voters could play a decisive role in close races this November.

However, voting rights advocates say campaigns and election officials have not fully engaged them.

According to the California Secretary of State’s final pre-election registration report, more than 5.2 million Californians were registered with No Party Preference before the June 2026 primary.

This group represents 22.82 percent of registered voters, compared with 24.96 percent registered as Republicans. When voters registered with minor parties are included in the broader independent electorate, unaffiliated voters outnumber registered Republicans.

Within California’s Latino community, the movement away from the two major parties appears even stronger.

S. Chad Peace, legal counsel for the Independent Voter Project, estimated that roughly three in 10 registered Latino voters are not affiliated with either major party. He described them not as politically indifferent, but as voters who increasingly feel that neither party represents them.

“This is a choice, not apathy,” Peace told Latino News Network. “Voters, especially younger and more diverse voters, increasingly feel neither party represents them, and they do not want a label attached to how they think.”

The Independent Voter Project is a nonpartisan election-reform organization that helped author Proposition 14, the 2010 measure that established California’s top-two primary system.

Under that system, candidates for statewide, legislative, and congressional offices appear on the same primary ballot. Voters can select any candidate regardless of their own registration. The two candidates receiving the most votes advance to the general election, even if they belong to the same party.

Peace explained that the system allows Californians to remain independent without losing their ability to participate in most primary contests.

“For governor, the legislature, Congress, and local offices, every voter receives the same ballot and can vote for any candidate,” Peace said. “No party registration, no crossover request, no second-class ballot.”

For Latino voters who do not identify with either major party, political participation is often driven by immediate concerns rather than partisan loyalty, according to Angélica Razo, national director of campaigns and programs at Mi Familia Vota.

“Latinos are not thinking of civic engagement in terms of political party,” Razo told LNN. “They are focused on building a better future for themselves and their children and concerned about what they’re paying at the grocery store, in rent and for everyday items.”

Razo explained that many Latino voters see dysfunction in Washington and do not believe the political system is helping them in their daily lives.

Peace identified the cost of living, housing, jobs, education, and public safety as leading priorities among Latino independent voters.

“These are voters who respond to results, not party identity,” he noted.

Their political position is not necessarily fixed.

Razo warned that immigration enforcement and what she described as attacks on Latino families could influence whether some voters move toward one of the major parties. She compared the current political environment with the response to Proposition 187 in California and Senate Bill 1070 in Arizona—two measures that contributed to Latino political mobilization.

“Our families are under constant attack and are being separated, so any prior trends of people moving away from picking a political party are likely to shift,” Razo said.

She maintained that one party is making a greater effort to listen to Latino communities, while the other is supporting policies that leave many Latino families feeling threatened. At the same time, she urged Democrats to build trust through consistent outreach and policy work between elections.

“It’s not just about voter outreach from parties through election cycles, but outside of election cycles,” Razo added. “Long term civic engagement from Latinos is going to require consistently fighting for our families.”

Latinos account for 38 percent of California’s adult population but only 29 percent of its likely voters, according to the Public Policy Institute of California. In contrast, white residents represent 36 percent of the adult population but 50 percent of likely voters.

Peace argued that the disparity shows Latino voters already possess significant potential influence but do not participate at rates that reflect their numbers.

“The problem is participation, not power,” he said.

The Independent Voter Project reported that Spanish-language voters participated at roughly 20 percent in the 2024 primary, compared with about 36 percent among voters who used English-language election materials.

While these figures do not represent every Latino voter—as many use English-language materials—Peace said they demonstrate a serious participation gap among those who interact with the election system in Spanish.

Razo suggested that some Latino voters remain disconnected because they are overwhelmed and frustrated, rather than because they have deliberately rejected politics.

“That is where the work Mi Familia Vota is so important, both from an empowerment angle and an educational perspective,” she explained. “We are giving these voters the tools to both vote and empower their communities to act.”

Although No Party Preference voters can participate equally in California’s top-two contests, different rules apply to presidential primaries.

Presidential nominations remain controlled by political parties. A No Party Preference voter can participate in a party’s presidential primary only when that party permits crossover voting. Some parties allow independent voters to request their presidential ballot, while others restrict participation to registered party members.

Peace described the existence of two different systems as a significant source of confusion.

“Many No Party Preference voters assume that being independent means they cannot vote in a primary at all,” he explained. “In California’s top-two primary, that is simply false. They can vote in every state and local race.”

The confusion is real during presidential elections, he added, because participation depends on rules set by each party.

“Closing that education gap, especially in language for Latino communities, is one of the highest leverage things anyone can do to raise participation,” Peace noted.

Razo agreed that language access and voter education are critical.

“We have to make sure they are educated and aware of how and when to vote,” she said. “Reaching these voters in non ideological ways is the best way to ensure that they have the tools they need.”

She called for more trusted places where Latino residents can receive accurate election information in the language they use.

“We need more educational touch points and more places to ensure that we are reaching Latinos with credible, smart information,” Razo emphasized. “We know the formula for turning out these voters. Now we need the resources to actually reach them.”

Campaign outreach presents another challenge.

Peace noted that Democratic and Republican campaigns often prioritize people with a history of regularly voting in partisan elections. Latino independents, particularly Spanish-speaking residents and those with limited voting histories, may receive fewer calls, visits, and campaign messages.

“Campaigns chase high-propensity, partisan voters because that is what their models reward,” he argued. “Latino independents, particularly lower-propensity and Spanish-language voters, get left out.”

This can create a cycle. Campaigns conduct less outreach because a group has a history of lower turnout, while turnout remains low because voters receive little information or encouragement.

“The failure is one of investment and outreach, not of interest,” Peace said.

Razo explained that Mi Familia Vota does not ask people to select a party when helping them register. Its organizers focus on explaining when and how to vote and informing residents about the policy positions of candidates.

She expects the economy and immigration to dominate many of those conversations before the November election.

“The economy and immigration are two issues which are completely intertwined in the minds of voters right now,” Razo said. “Our voters are simultaneously concerned about the cost of living and the possibility that they could be detained, disappeared, or shot because they look like immigrants.”

A potentially decisive electorate

Latino independent voters do not vote as a single political bloc; their views, economic circumstances, and political motivations vary widely.

In races separated by narrow margins, however, this large and currently under-mobilized population could alter the result.

California recorded a turnout rate of 40.8 percent in the June primary, with more than 9.4 million ballots cast, according to the official certified election results. Full county and contest data are available through the Secretary of State’s 2026 Statement of Vote.

Peace predicted that their influence could be especially important in competitive congressional and legislative districts, as well as local contests where voter participation and campaign outreach are often lower.

“A general election in a midterm year draws lower turnout and thinner margins, so a bloc this large that is currently under-mobilized can decide outcomes,” Peace said.

The Independent Voter Project wants California to retain the top-two system and extend its nonpartisan principle to presidential elections. The organization also supports advancing as many as five candidates to the general election and using ranked-choice voting to select a winner.

Peace argued that such a model would provide voters with more choices and encourage candidates to appeal beyond their partisan bases.

Critics of the current top two system say it can leave voters choosing between two candidates from the same party and can eliminate minor party candidates before the November election.

Peace acknowledged that criticism but maintained that allowing voters rather than party officials to determine who advances is the preferable tradeoff.

“The goal of the Independent Voter Project is to put voters before parties and make participation the default,” he said.

For Razo, election reform will remain incomplete without sustained investment in voters who are less likely to be contacted by campaigns or election institutions.

Latino voters do not necessarily need stronger party identities, she concluded. They need clear information, trusted outreach and evidence that participation can improve conditions for their families.

“We just want to make sure they know how and when to vote,” Razo said, “and then educate these voters on the policy agenda of the candidates.”