Matt Shinners
Last Tuesday, June 2, voters in New Jersey, Iowa, South Dakota, Montana, New Mexico, and California showed up to the polls to vote in primaries. Well, voters who were allowed to do so, with several of those states closing independents out of the process.
While results are still trickling in in California, early results in the state, as well as the outcome of the Montana Senate primary, impact prominent independent candidates.
CA-6: Kiley Leads, But Watch the Second Spot
With 65.8% of votes counted, US Rep. Kevin Kiley leads the CA-6 field at 25.4%, a comfortable margin over Democrat Richard Pan at 22.8% and Republican Michael Stansfield at 21.2%. Stansfield was in the second slot during early returns, but later-counted votes tend to favor Democrats, moving Pan into the second slot.
Kiley's lead has decreased as more votes come in, but he looks poised to make it through the Top Two primary into the November general—as a No Party Preference candidate.
Kiley was, until recently, a Republican, who ran in the old CA-3 in 2024, winning with 55.5% of the vote in a district that leaned Republican (R+7). After his seat was redistricted, he left the Republican Party, citing hyper-partisanship and gridlock.
He filed to run in the newly drawn CA-2, which Harris would have carried by more than six percentage points in the 2024 presidential race.
Kiley leading the pack is certainly not an outcome that Democrats expected when redrawing these district lines. As more and more gerrymandered seats come up for elections, we’re likely to see more situations where outcomes predicted by partisans fail to materialize due to the growing influence of independent voters.
CA-23: The Partisan Wall Holds Against Matthews
The race that reformers had circled as the clearest test of independent infrastructure in California delivered a sobering verdict (since Kiley is an incumbent who won his first election with institutional party backing).
With 77.6% of votes counted, incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte leads with 57.8%, while independent Karen Matthews (a retired Navy physician who had outraised every Democrat in the field) sits in fourth place at 4.5%, behind Democrats Tessa Lynn Hodge (20.4%; advancing to the general) and Pat Wallis (13.5%).
She received a larger share of the vote than Democrat Karsten Nicholson (3.2%).
Even with the Democratic vote split three ways, a promising independent campaign failed to garner enough support from NPP voters to vie for a top two slot. With results more than three-quarters counted and no expectation of major swings in the remaining ballots, the November race will be Republican Obernolte vs. Democrat Hodge.
CA-2: Hahn Niman Trails in a Dominant Incumbent's Race
With 51.7% of votes counted, incumbent Jared Huffman has run away with CA-2, receiving not-quite-a-majority (46.3%). Independent Nicolette Hahn Niman was ahead of several Republican candidates the day after the election, but later returns have favored the two parties, and she now sits in seventh with 5.2% of the vote. Republican Robin Littau is likely to advance against the incumbent with 16.1%. If these results hold, the November general will be a standard R vs. D race.
Montana: The Three-Way Race Is Set
Republican Kurt Alme and Democrat Alani Bankhead scored decisive primary wins Tuesday to advance to Montana's US Senate race in November. Alme and Bankhead will share the November ballot with independent Seth Bodnar, who recently submitted more than double the required signatures to qualify.
Alme captured around 76% of the Republican primary vote; Bankhead won against a field of 5 with 43.8% of the vote (over her closest competitor at 33.2%). The structure of the race sets up the most consequential three-way Senate contest of the cycle.
Be sure to watch how this race develops compared to the Senate race in Nebraska, which will be functionally a two-way race between Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts and independent Dan Osborn (even if the Democrat remains on the ballot after dropping out, the party has already stated it’s consolidating support behind Osborn).