ANCHORAGE—The midterm elections aren’t over yet. Votes are still being counted. The Mississippi US Senate race is closer than anyone expected. And in Alaska, as many as 75,000 ballots remain outstanding, including in the closely watched Senate race.
But with all the accusations flying around that the “Decoy Dan” situation was going to cause broad confusion, available information on ranked-choice returns tells a different story.
Specifically, many votes for Daniel J. Sullivan were protest and “for the laugh” votes.
Surprising set of second-choice votes in Alaska's Senate race, from ballots released so far, among those who voted for "Decoy Dan" as their first choice. Go figure. https://t.co/uKrQLwfEhl pic.twitter.com/sCP0RBiCOP
— Orin Kerr (@OrinKerr) November 6, 2026
The chart in the above tweet comes from data accessed by the New York Times.
It shows that nearly two-thirds of the 3,600 people who voted for Daniel J. Sullivan (so far) ranked a second option. Almost 30% ranked Democrat Mary Peltola second. Only 16% ranked US Sen. Dan Sullivan second.
This contradicts the narrative from Republican leaders that Alaskans who vote for “Decoy Dan” really meant to vote for the incumbent. It also shows that ranked choice voting is doing its job.
Many voters didn’t rank a second choice, and that is their prerogative. Many of these voters may have actually wanted to vote for Daniel J Sullivan. Some also did it as a joke, a meme, or a protest against the party options.
The fact that Peltola ranks highest among second-choice selections also indicates that many were fully aware of their actions when they voted for “Decoy Dan,” and it was to have a little fun knowing that their actual preference will carry over in a ranked-choice runoff.
I predicted this very outcome on the Independent Voter Podcast this week before this information was available.
There is also an indication that some voters who cast a ballot for Daniel J. Sullivan did indeed mean to vote for the incumbent. It’s a small percentage, but it represents as many as 500-600 votes.
If Peltola doesn’t cross a majority, their true preference will be applied in the second round of vote tabulation after “Decoy Dan” is eliminated. It won’t help the incumbent much, but the vote will transfer into the final total.
This is how ranked choice voting is supposed to work. It is supposed to help voters fully express their preferences at the ballot, which can include voting only for a preferred candidate or expressing a protest vote before indicating which of the top candidates a voter prefers.
It can even help mitigate the effect partisan dirty tricks like recruiting a same-name candidate can have on the results.
Maybe this is one reason why the repeal effort keeps failing.
The next substantial batch of votes in Alaska’s elections is expected to be announced on Tuesday, November 10. Peltola will need about 55% of remaining first-choice selections to win outright.
If not, who wins will come down to one or two rounds of ranked-choice runoffs.