ANCHORAGE —Alaska voters appear to have rejected Ballot Measure 2 for the second time in two years. The measure would have repealed the state's nonpartisan open primary and ranked choice general election.
It also would have erased certain campaign finance and true source disclosure rules largely targeted at “dark money” groups.
As of Wednesday morning, with an estimated 73% of votes counted, "No" led 105,774 to 98,218. That is 51.9% to 48.1%, a margin of 7,556 votes, according to AP results.
Alaska counts slowly, and the Division of Elections will keep counting absentee, early, and questioned ballots for days. The outcome is not likely to change. Here is why.
The late count already settled this question once
In 2024, the repeal effort led on election night. With about 70% of ballots counted, "Yes" was ahead 51.2% to 48.8%, a lead of 5,487 votes. Roughly 100,000 mailed, early, and questioned ballots were still outstanding.
Those late ballots broke against repeal. "No" did not take the lead until November 18, nearly two weeks after Election Day. The measure failed by 743 votes out of more than 321,000 cast.
The math from 2024 is simple. About 85,500 votes were counted after election night, and they went roughly 53.6% "No" to 46.4% "Yes."
This year, the starting point is reversed. "No" is ahead going into the late count, not behind. If the AP estimate is close, about 75,000 ballots remain. To win, repeal supporters would need to carry those ballots about 55% to 45%.
This would mean late voters swinging around 17 points from where they landed two years ago. Nothing in Alaska's recent history suggests that will happen.
What voters actually rejected
Measure 2 was marketed as a vote on ranked choice voting. It did a lot more than that.
It would have replaced the nonpartisan Top Four primary with partisan primaries. Voters would have chosen a party's ballot "unless prohibited by the party's bylaws." That language would have let the parties shut independent and undeclared voters out of the primary.
That matters in Alaska more than almost anywhere else. Nearly two out of three registered voters in Alaska, 63.8%, are registered independents, according to Independent Voter Project voter statistics.
Just 34.5% are registered Republican or Democrat.
Under the current system, every voter gets the same primary ballot, and the top four candidates advance, regardless of party. Under Measure 2, the parties would have decided who gets to take part in the most important round of the election.
The measure would also have repealed the 2020 campaign disclosure rules. Those rules require donors who give more than $2,000 to disclose the true source of the money, and they regulate out-of-state and undisclosed contributions.
Both campaigns were well funded. Repeal Now, the group behind “Yes on 2,” raised nearly $2.6 million, according to Alaska Public Media. Most of that money came through a group funded by Elon Musk. Opponents raised $10.4 million.
Why this result matters beyond Alaska
This is the third time Alaskans have weighed in on this system. They adopted it in 2020, kept it by a handful of votes in 2024, and appear to be keeping it by a wider margin now.
IVN made this point after certification in 2024: voter opinion on the reform has barely moved since it passed. Repeal backers sought a recount, and the recount confirmed the result.
IVN has tracked this fight since the start of the year. Shawn Griffiths explained what the measure would actually do in Alaska Ballot Measure 2 Could Kill Open Primaries, Ranked Choice Voting, and Dark Money Rules in One Vote.
Cara Brown McCormick reported on the money behind the repeal in Elon Musk is Trying to Kill Alaskan Voting Rights.
And Griffiths flagged the misleading advertising in The Most Dishonest Campaign Ad in 2026?, a spot that promised voters the very open primaries the measure was designed to end. The coverage set up a result that looks a lot like the last one.
The lesson for reformers and their opponents is the same. Once voters have used an open primary, it is hard to convince them to give it back to the parties. The repeal campaign focused on ranked choice ballots because a direct argument for closing the primary is a harder sell to the voters who would be closed out.
The question is now whether opponents will try a third time. Alaska voters have already answered it twice.