John Opdycke
Gallup released its latest identification numbers, and independent voters are now 45%.
Nobody disputes the data. But there are competing opinions as to what the data means.
The official narrative asserts that independent voters are….not really independent. Independents a) have no ideological cohesion and b) vote like partisans. To quote pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson “most voters who identify as independents do go on, when pressed, to say they lean more toward one party than the other.”
A beautiful trick. Just twist independent’s arms until they cry uncle and admit they are still part of team blue or team red.
These same experts also assert that independents who run for office are “spoilers” who siphon votes away from legitimate candidates. This is not simply derogatory. The hidden message of the spoiler argument is that votes belong to the parties, not to the people.
Leaners and spoilers. What a loving way to refer to the largest group of voters in the country!
A different narrative is gaining traction. A growing number of leaders who are engaged in organizing and researching independent voters look at the statistics and see potential. This new narrative allows for the possibility that the small act of distancing oneself from the parties is indicative of something brewing.
It doesn’t see the lack of a shared ideology as a problem, but rather as an opportunity to bring people together in new ways. And when it comes to how we conduct primary elections, the narrative has changed dramatically. A majority of Americans across party lines now support the right of non-party voters to participate in publicly funded primary elections.
A look at the state of independent politics today reveals that independent voters have not congealed into a single party or organization – that’s not consistent with the brand (or anti-brand, whichever you prefer). While the legacy third parties (Green, Libertarian) are stagnating, there is a lot of experimentation going on, with dozens of groups, candidates, and alternative entities exploring how to tap into independents.
We see especially strong interest among veterans-as voters and increasingly as candidates. There are already five independent veterans running for US Senate this fall. And we expect to see over 100 total this year for races across the country – from governor to school board. Indeed, Independent Veterans of America was founded to support candidates that are providing the kind of strong, authentic leadership America is looking for.
Independents are already shaping outcomes at the national level, providing significant margins to Obama, then Trump, then Biden and back to Trump. But not so long ago, independents came together in a big way.
But the official story still dominates. The question we have is: why?
If independents are, in fact, best understood as partisans in disguise, if independents are too scattered ideologically to come together, if the rise of independent voters is inconsequential, if “true” independents represent less than 10% of the population…why spend so much energy insisting that they don’t matter?
Lots of things don’t matter. They tend not to attract battalions of academics and powerful pundits to convince us so. Why such stridency?
Two words. Ross Perot.
In 1992, independent Ross Perot got 20% of the vote for president despite dropping out mid-campaign and running a mediocre campaign. He was put on the ballot by an explosion of independent volunteers condemning the major parties for ignoring their economic and political concerns.
Perot crucified Clinton and Bush in the debates and his 20%, while not resulting in a single electoral vote, drove the Clinton/Gingrich policy process for a decade. He attracted millions of votes from liberals and conservatives alike. The Perot explosion - a multi-ideological independent movement - produced a balanced budget, the Contract with America, and Clintonian triangulation.
The DC crowd, completely caught off guard by 20 million Americans going off script, has never forgotten.
The number of independent voters has doubled since 1992. But efforts to marginalize independents have doubled as well. Pundits insist that independents are “leaners and spoilers” in part to prevent another Perot explosion. But independents are not victims. We are challenging partisan institutions and customs and insisting that there has to be a better way than MAGA’s orgy of cruelty and the Democratic Party’s elitist ineptitude.
Yes, independents are not that organized. No, we don’t have the resources that the two parties have. But that doesn’t mean we are leaners. Every week, 10,000 Americans switch their registration from D or R to I – and they do so for a reason. They want to be part of a new political conversation, not perpetrators of partisan demonization. Independents are ready to lead.
John Opdycke is President of Open Primaries, a national election reform organization. Paul Rieckhoff is a US Army infantry combat veteran, 9/11 First Responder, the host of the Independent Americans, and President and Founder of Independent Veterans of America (IVA).