With under a month left until California’s June 2 primary elections, people continue to hear the same claim about the governor’s race: Deep blue California could see two Republicans on the November ballot.
It’s part of the national narrative about the election. California Democrats have used it for fundraising and “Get Out The Vote” messaging. Party leaders have also used it to foster skepticism in the state’s nonpartisan open primary model.
The Guardian: The chair of the California Democratic party says he wants to get rid of the state’s idiosyncratic “jungle primary”, calling it a failure that risks pitting a crowded field of Democratic candidates against each other to the point where a Republican can be elected…
— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) May 1, 2026
Yet, a recent poll commissioned by the California Democratic Party shows that the odds of this happening are extremely low even as its leaders continue to run with it.
The poll, released on May 4, shows Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton tied in the front-runner spot. Hilton hasn’t moved much in the polls, while Becerra jumped to the top spot following Eric Swalwell’s exit.
Becerra’s rise was first shown in the Independent Voter Project’s (IVP) statewide poll released on April 20.
Neither of the two Republican candidates in the governor’s race, Hilton or Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, have gained ground as more undecided voters make their pick in the race or settle on a candidate.
On IVN, we have explained that the problem with the “two-Republican panic” was that it relied on early polling in which a quarter of the electorate was undecided. Media pundits pushing this scenario didn’t look deeper into voter sentiments.
Chad Peace
However, IVP did – and what the data showed was that Hilton and Bianco already hit their support ceilings. Now, this is being reflected in other polls.
SurveyUSA recently found Hilton and Democrat Tom Steyer in the top two spots. Rodriguez Gudelunas Strategies found Becerra in the top spot, just like IVP, and Hilton in second.
No poll, according to those featured in the New York Times, has shown both Republicans in the top spots since Swalwell dropped out. President Donald Trump’s endorsement may help keep Hilton in the top two, but Bianco likely won’t be able to overcome any of the top Democrats.
Ballots for the June 2 primary have already been sent out. It is now in the hands of voters to decide, and thanks to the nonpartisan primary system, this means all voters. In the end, it will be independents who determine the two candidates that advance to November.
If California moved back to partisan primaries, this election would be decided in a low-turnout Democratic primary by party insiders and closed-primary gatekeepers.
The Independent Voter Project, which authored Top Two in California, supports expanding the number of candidates that advance to November to four. Under a more choice voting system, voters would then use ranked choice ballots to determine a majority winner.
A similar system is already in place in Alaska. The organization says what the state shouldn’t do is move backward.