Articles by Erik Fogg

"Well of course I'd love to have more [Republicans/Democrats] join our side, but they're all crazy." In my experience, most people believe that they can pin down most of what somebody thinks based on whether they voted Republican or Democratic in the last mid-term. I've argued for a long time that this is a result of "Wedging" rather than reality: a few views from each side are amplified and accepted as universal by the other side. Pew just released a study that is probably the most interestin...

A lot of people feel pretty strongly about their political opinions. Often we feel like they are quite set in stone; based on some very deep values that won't change much. A lot of people also feel like their opinions are based on well-thought-out logic and reasoning, from gathering evidence. However, there's substantial evidence to suggest that when another tribe's opinions solidify on an issue, our tribe runs away--and we join them. Our opinions on important issues are often fluid and fickle...

Of the United States’ many political problems, one glaring issue is the fact that we have a two-party system representing a wide array of opinions. It’s a bigger problem than most people think. While independents make up over one-third of US registered voters -- and generally they remain almost entirely unrepresented in Congress -- people within each party disagree wildly. Pew’s amazing study on political typology shows that there are at least 4 distinct blocks within each party, all of which ...

I often get asked questions such as, “why isn’t the GOP standing up  to Trump? Congress obviously hates him.” Sometimes the questions are worded with less curiosity, but that is the ultimate question behind what people are saying. While it’s not always clear just how each member of Congress feels, it appears to be the case that there is greater intra-party antagonism between the GOP Congress and the presidency than in a very long time. If this is the case, why does it all seem to be swept unde...

In my experience speaking to Europeans and Canadians about our political system, they frequently demonstrate a lot of worry for us. Gone are the days of the usual cross-Atlantic holier-than-thou quipping and sniping. They’re just plain worried for us -- and, by extension, them. Europe, no doubt, has its own bag of problems, though they try not to admit it to us Yanks. But the vitriol and mutual partisan hatred that is the new normal in American politics sets us apart. A large majority of Republ...

Missouri is a classic American Purple state. It is coveted by presidential candidates much as Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Florida: It voted twice for Clinton, but also voted for Bush, McCain, Romney, and Trump -- all by narrow margins. Missouri has gone ten years without two senators of the same party, and 133 years since it sent representatives from only one party to DC. Most importantly, over a third of Missourians consider themselves moderates. Fifteen percent of Missourians don’t even l...

I was in Seattle recently (great city, fabulous, everyone says so), and while there a very nice and gregarious person was telling us about how excited she was for the upcoming $15 minimum wage (it's currently $13). I knew almost nothing about it other than brief headlines on the news, so I listened but didn't add much. But it was a good opportunity to then go do some research. People are of course very politically committed to the outcome being one way or the other -- "I'm sure it's working gr...

While at Unrig the System this weekend (more on that later but a great meeting). I got to meet Pat Caddell, who has worked in presidential offices and campaigns since the Carter administration. He also developed many of the modern polling techniques widely used today. (By the way, he thinks micropolling is part of the equation, as we discuss in Wedged.) He has done a combination of personal interviews, polling, and soul-searching to get a sense of why Trump won the election when, in his words, ...

Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan are planning on moving forward with the GOP's Obamacare repeal-and-replace plan (still officially not released in full). The plan itself is still likely to change, and they're having trouble getting all of the Republicans on board, but they want to move forward. After all: “I don’t think we should act as if we going to be in the majority forever,” McConnell told reporters on Capitol Hill. “We’ve been given a temporary lease on power if you will, and I think we need...