Shawn Griffiths
Photo by Getty Images on Unsplash
Alaska Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom announced this week that taxpayers will foot the bill for a recount of Measure 2, an initiative that sought to repeal Alaska's nonpartisan election system -- but ultimately failed by 664 votes.
Under state law, an election recount can be conducted and funded by the state if the margin of victory falls within 0.5%. Measure 2 was defeated 49.9% to 50.1%, though the odds of a recount changing this outcome are slim.
“It’s clear to me that Alaskans voted to keep open primaries and ranked choice, including the tens of thousands of voters who both voted for President Trump, voted for Rep-elect Begich, but also voted no on 2,” said Scott Kendall, an attorney who works closely with reformers.
Kendall has been attached to the nonpartisan election effort in Alaska since the 2020 initiative that implemented a top 4 nonpartisan open primary for all voters and candidates and ranked choice voting in the general election.
Voters approved the system by about a percentage point and when a statewide audit of the results was conducted, only 24 out of 361,400 votes did not match the machine count, which didn't come close to changing the outcome.
A total of 320,574 votes were cast on Measure 2 in 2024 -- nearly 41,000 less than 4 years ago.
Research from the nonpartisan better elections group FairVote found that the odds of a recount changing election results drop to zero when the outcome exceeds a margin of 0.1% of the vote. This is because the number of votes that change rarely hits triple digits.
The group looked at nearly 7,000 statewide elections from 2000 to 2023 and found that only 36 races had a complete statewide recount. Only 3 of the 36 recounts resulted in a change in outcome from a margin of less than 0.1%.
LEARN MORE: Despite Inevitable Calls for Election Recounts, Research Shows They Rarely Change the Outcome
In fact, FairVote found that the odds are much greater that a recount will result in a widened margin of victory for the winning side.
"States should have a process in place for recounts to ensure voter trust and confidence, but we should not expect recounts to change outcomes unless the margin is razor-thin," said Deb Otis, FairVote’s Director of Research and Policy.
And while a gap of 664 votes seems razor-thin, the accuracy of vote counts in Alaska and the US at-large reveals that it really isn't -- especially when Alaska has such a small voting pool to begin with.
Under state law, Alaska has to certify its election results by Saturday, November 30.
