Cara Brown McCormick
The fate of Proposition 50, California’s proposed redistricting measure, may come down to voters who have declined to join one of the two major political parties. A new Berkeley IGS Poll shows that while partisan Democrats and Republicans are dug in on opposite sides, the state’s No Party Preference (NPP) voters remain divided and disproportionately undecided.
The poll shows Democrats line up overwhelmingly in support of the measure, 69 percent to 11 percent. Republicans are just as firmly opposed to the measure, 72 percent to 15 percent. Among NPP voters, however, the picture is far less settled: 46 percent yes, 30 percent no, and 24 percent undecided.
That undecided rate is more than double what Democrats or Republicans report. When applied to the Secretary of State’s February 2025 registration totals, it translates into about 1.2 million independents still on the fence, making them the largest share of the statewide undecided pool at roughly 34 percent.
“This will be an intense campaign with both sides spending tens of millions to try to move those undecided voters,” said IGS co-director Eric Schickler.
Turnout Will Decide Which Independents Matter
The poll also reveals a notable turnout divide among NPP voters. Regular independents — defined as those who have cast ballots in at least five of the last seven statewide elections — lean clearly toward yes, with 55 percent in support, 34 percent opposed, and just 11 percent undecided.
Less frequent independents are far less certain. Among them, support drops to 43 percent yes, 31 percent no, and 27 percent undecided. This suggests the fate of the measure may rest not only on how independents lean, but on which independents show up in November.
Undecided Pool by Registration
Using February 2025 registration totals and the poll’s undecided rates, the statewide undecided pool breaks down as follows:
- NPP: about 1,226,400 undecided (34 percent of all undecided voters)
- Democrats: about 1,139,600 undecided (32 percent of all undecided voters)
- Republicans: about 750,100 undecided (21 percent of all undecided voters)
- Other parties: about 442,800 undecided (12 percent of all undecided voters)
In total, an estimated 3.56 million Californians remain undecided, with more than one in three of them coming from the NPP column.
The Bottom Line
Partisan voters are largely locked in. Independents are not. With millions of No Party Preference registrants and the highest undecided rate of any major group, California’s independents are the voters to watch in November.
The Berkeley IGS Poll was conducted online August 11 through 17, 2025, in English and Spanish, among a stratified random sample of 4,950 registered voters statewide.
Source: Tabulations from an August 2025 Poll of California Registered Voters about Redistricting, conducted by the Berkeley IGS Poll, Institute of Governmental Studies, University of California, Berkeley, August 11 through 17, 2025. University of California, Berkeley, Institute of Governmental Studies, 109 Moses Hall, number 2370, Berkeley, CA 94720-2370. Tel 510 642 1473. Fax 510 642 3020. Email igs@berkeley.edu.
NPP Breakdown from the August 2025 Berkeley IGS Polling Cross Tabs
NPP Re: Governor Newsom Job Approval (Q17)
- 47 percent approve
- 42 percent disapprove
- 11 percent no opinion
NPP Re: Newsom’s Criticism of Trump (Q18)
- 61 percent want him to continue as a leading critic
- 22 percent want him to take a more cooperative stance
- 17 percent no opinion
NPP Re: Redistricting Proposal “Good Idea or Bad Idea” (Q20)
- 44 percent good idea
- 34 percent bad idea
- 23 percent undecided
NPP Re: Redistricting Ballot Measure Vote Intent (Q21)
- 46 percent yes
- 30 percent no
- 24 percent undecided
Turnout Frequency Among NPP Voters
- Regular NPP voters, defined as those who voted in at least five of the last seven statewide elections:
- 55 percent yes
- 34 percent no
- 11 percent undecided
- Non-regular NPP voters:
- 43 percent yes
- 31 percent no
- 27 percent undecided
All Groups Breakdown from the August 2025 Berkeley IGS Polling Cross Tabs
Governor Newsom Job Approval (Q17)
- Overall: 50% approve, 43% disapprove.
- By Party:
- Democrats: 78% approve / 16% disapprove.
- Republicans: 9% approve / 88% disapprove.
- No Party Preference (NPP): split, 47% approve / 42% disapprove.
- By Ideology:
- Strong liberals: 75% approve.
- Strong conservatives: 9% approve.
- By Demographics:
- Women: 56% approve (higher than men at 45%).
- Younger voters (18–29): 47% approve, but 16% undecided (much higher uncertainty than older groups).
Latino voters: 51% approve. Black voters: 58% approve. Asian/Pacific Islanders: 49% approve. - White non-Hispanic voters: 50% approve, 46% disapprove.
- By Income: Approval highest among households $60k–$99k (51%) and lowest among <$40k (46%).
- Regional: Strongest in SF Bay Area (59% approve), weakest in San Joaquin Valley (40% approve).
Newsom’s Criticism of Trump (Q18)
- Overall: 59% want him to “continue as a leading critic,” 29% want him to “take a more cooperative stance.”
- By Party:
- Democrats: 86% say continue criticizing.
- Republicans: 74% say cooperate.
- NPP: 61% say continue criticizing.
- By Ideology:
- Strong liberals: 95% say continue.
- Strong conservatives: 77% say cooperate.
- By Age:
- Younger voters (18–29): 71% say continue.
Seniors (65+): closer split, 57% continue / 35% cooperate.
Redistricting Proposal “Good Idea or Bad Idea” (Q20)
- Overall: 46% good idea, 36% bad idea, 18% undecided.
- By Party:
- Democrats: 67% good idea.
- Republicans: 76% bad idea.
- NPP: evenly split 44% good idea / 34% bad idea (23% undecided).
- By Ideology:
- Strong liberals: 74% good idea.
- Strong conservatives: 78% bad idea.
- By Race/Ethnicity:
- White voters: 47% good idea, 42% bad idea, only 11% undecided.
- Latino voters: 44% good idea, 30% bad idea, 26% undecided.
Black voters: 46% good idea, 31% bad idea, 23% undecided. - Asian voters: 45% good idea, 30% bad idea, 26% undecided
- By Voting Frequency:
- Regular voters: more supportive (52% good idea).
Not regular: less supportive (41%)
Redistricting Ballot Measure Vote Intent (Q21)
- Overall: 48% Yes, 32% No, 20% undecided.
- By Party:
- Democrats: 69% Yes / 11% No.
Republicans: 15% Yes / 72% No. - NPP: 46% Yes / 30% No / 24% undecided.
- By Ideology:
- Strong liberals: 76% Yes.
- Strong conservatives: 15% Yes / 72% No.
- By Race/Ethnicity:
- White voters: 52% Yes / 37% No / 11% undecided.
- Latino voters: 43% Yes / 28% No / 29% undecided (high uncertainty).
- Black voters: 45% Yes / 27% No / 28% undecided.
- Asian voters: 49% Yes / 27% No / 24% undecided.
- By Region:
- Bay Area: strongest support at 60% Yes.
- San Joaquin Valley: lowest, just 38% Yes.
- By Voting Frequency:
- Regular voters: 55% Yes / 34% No / 11% undecided.
- Non-regular: 43% Yes / 31% No / 27% undecided.
