SANFRANCISCO -- Despite the state's airwaves being plastered by TVcommercials showing firefighters and teachers predicting furthereconomic disaster for California should Props. 1A through 1F fail, amajority of likely voters in a poll say they will vote against atleast five of measures during the upcoming May 19 special election.
The poll, conducted by the San Francisco-based Public Policy Institute of California,was released late Thursday evening and showed that Props. 1A through 1Ewere headed for likely defeat. Only Prop. 1F, which prevents lawmakersfrom getting salary increases during years when the state budget is indeficit, appeared headed toward passage.
The ballotinitiatives -- the product of a last-minute deal by ranking Democratsto secure enough Republican votes to pass a months-late state budget --seemed doomed to failure almost from the start, polls showed. And whilethe governor and leading Democratic and Republican leaders have allconsistently urged voters to pass the measures, independent civicgroups, labor unions and political wings of both parties have spokenout against the initiatives.
"The voters who are really tuned in are really turned off. They see thestate's budget situation as a big problem, but so far, they don't likethe solution," said Mark Baldessare, PPIC's president and CEO."Proposition 1C is the measure that matters most for next year'sbudget, and it's in the most trouble."
Specifically, the PPIC poll shows:
--Prop. 1A / Rainy day budget. (52% no, 35% yes, 13% don't know):Democrats (47%) are much more likely than independents (32%) and morethan twice as likely as Republicans (22%) to support the measure. Just7 percent say Proposition 1A would be very effective in avoiding futurebudget deficits, and 32 percent say it would be somewhat effective.Latinos are more likely (45%) than whites (32%) to favor the measure.
--Prop. 1B / Payments to school districts. (47% no, 40% yes, 13% don'tknow): More voters oppose than support this measure to require a futurepayment of $9.3 billion to local school districts and communitycolleges. Those who are very closely following election news areopposed, 61 percent to 32 percent. A majority of Democrats (53%) wouldvote yes and a majority of Republicans (61%) would vote no. Support forthe measure falls short of a majority in all of the state's majorregions. Latinos offer more support (56%) than whites (34%).
--Prop. 1C / California lottery modernization. (58% no, 32% yes, 10%don't know): A solid majority oppose this measure, which wouldmodernize the lottery and allow the state to borrow $5 billion fromfuture profits to help balance the 2009-2010 budget. Opposition is evenstronger among voters who are following election news closely (65% no,29% yes). Majorities in all regions say they'll vote no, while whites(63%) are more likely than Latinos (42%) to say they will vote no.
--Prop. 1D / Removes early childhood education funds. (45% no, 43% yes,12% don't know): Voters are divided on this measure that wouldtemporarily transfer funds from early childhood education programs tohelp balance the state budget. A majority of Democrats (54%) supportthe measure, and a majority of Republicans (56%) oppose it. Opponents(49%) outnumber supporters (39%) among independents. A majority ofthose following election news very closely are opposed (57% no, 35%yes). Latinos (66%) are much more likely than whites (36%) to be infavor.
--Prop. 1E / Removes money from mental health programs. (48% no, 41%yes, 11% don't know): More voters oppose than support this measure totransfer money from mental health services to the general fund to helpbalance the state budget. Support falls short of a majority acrossmajor regions of the state. A majority of Latinos (63%) would vote yes,while most whites (54%) would vote no. Voters who are very closelyfollowing election news oppose Proposition 1E by a wider margin (61%no, 35% yes).
--Prop. 1F / Prevents lawmakers from getting raises during deficityears. (73% yes, 24% no, 3% don't know): Although support for themeasure has slipped, at least two in three voters across all thestate's major regions and strong majorities across demographic groupssay they would vote yes. Among those closely following the election, 62percent would vote yes and 36 would vote no.
The poll results were embargoed by PPIC until 10 p.m. last Thursday. At thatminute political reporters across the state began receiving e-mailsfrom the governor's California Budget Reform Now campaign,which has been leading the charge to get the measures passed. Thee-mail and the wall-to-wall TV advertising confirm the politicalcapital that's been placed on the line with these troubled measures.
In last Thursday night's e-mail, California Budget Reform Now called on Jeannine English, state president of the American Association of Retired Persons to herald the potential doom if Props. 1A through 1F fail at the polls.
"While voters are frustrated, they are starting to recognize that it isour children, public safety officers, older citizens, firefighters andthe most vulnerable among us who will suffer the most should thesemeasures fail, not the politicians in Sacramento. We will be workingday and night to communicate to voters in the coming weeks thatsupporting Props 1A, 1B, 1C, 1D, 1E and 1F is a vote to prevent thesedeep cuts and take a step toward improving the state's fiscalsituation...." English said in a statement.
The poll was based on a telephone survey of 2,005 adult Californiansfrom April 27-May 4. The margin of error for all respondents is plus orminus 2 percent. The error rate for the 1,080 likely voters polled isplus or minus 3 percent.
Follow Jeff Mitchell's political journalism at BAPolitix.org