It's been barely three weeks since Governor Schwarzenegger announced hisintentions to calla special election to validate his budget proposals, and already,skepticism is starting to shine through the cracks of Schwarzenegger'spro-democracy rhetoric.
In fact, even Schwarzenegger himself seems to havebecome something of a skeptic toward democracy, seeming to enjoy himself alittle too much in the world of non-office seeking politics and even tellingthe SacramentoBee that "he has more freedom to makepolicy decisions (including tax increases, a break from past campaign promises)precisely because he doesn't have to run for another office."
In otherwords, the trouble of actually listening to what the voters want (often anirrational set of signals to begin with) has finally loosened its impermeablegrip on the office of the governor, releasing a liberated Schwarzenegger tomake the hard decisions which a man of consequence should be allowed to make.
Now, Schwarzenegger'srejoicing is understandable as a private matter, but what is not understandableis why the man feels the need to trumpet his lack of obligation to thepreferences of California's people from the rooftops in the pages of a majorpaper.
This is not to say anything against Schwarzenegger's character, butsurely it cannot have escaped his mind that his rejoicing may be inopportune asa matter of political messaging, especially where the special election itselfis concerned? Schwarzenegger's exuberance is positively bewildering, viewed inthis light, especially when one considers the larger context in whichCalifornia's voters behave.
And what of that largercontext? The Los Angeles Times has recently published a storyreporting that "If there is alesson from the local elections so far, it is that the excitement spurred bythe presidential contest is exceedingly hard to replicate." By way of example,the Times points out that while "almost 80% ofregistered voters turned out" in California on election night, "Little morethan 6% "showed up for a late State Senate election." Unsurprisingly,the Times wonders if this lack of interest in statewide issues willimpact the special election in May, and if so, how? Unfortunately, whatever theanswer to this question, the results will not correlate with Schwarzenegger'sneeds.
Consider: If barely anybody shows up at the polls to vote on thesespecial election issues, it will be all the easier for special interest groupsto dominate the discourse. This is not something which would ordinarily be aproblem, since special interest groups tend to cancel each other out, but inthis case, no such balance of power exists. Political activists bothLeft and Right hate the bill and that's no surprise, given that it managesto simultaneously cut spending on schools and prisons (favorite pet projects ofboth sides) while raising taxes and further angering those who would normallysupport Republican ballot initiatives. As such, if few voters show up, thosevocal special interest groups with grudges against the budget will likelycontrol the ballot box, meaning that the budget will go down to obvious defeat.
And what of the other option, that numerous voters turn up? Giventhat the measures on the ballot will be measures that California's residentshave a history of not supporting, the odds are very against this scenarioending well for the governor, though they are better than the conditions of lowturnout. The polls currently bear a grim message for Schwarzenegger, as the Timesreports that "none of the key budget measures on the May ballot is winningamong likely voters." However, it is possible that with just the right amountof sophistry and optimism, this result could be reversed. Maybe.
But the way for Schwarzenegger to get there is not by celebrating thathe no longer has to care what California's people think. This sends a veryperverse message to the voters - that they are a stone around the neck of the governor. This message will inspire apathetic guilt at best andanti-Schwarzenegger outrage at worst, and will either result in resoundingdefeat at the polls via special interests or via populist outrage.
Either way,the governor needs to display more discipline in releasing his message, if hewants to get his budget past the final hurdle.
Because, after all, this special election will be deadly if itturns into Schwarzenegger's final special rejection.