Montana's Senate Race Is Breaking All the Rules of Party Loyalty

In many of the races facing independent Senate candidates, it’s a two-way race between them and a Republican. In Montana, independent Seth Bodnar faces both a Trump-backed Republican and a Democratic nominee who refused to step aside. The result will test whether an independent can win when a party won’t get out of the way.

In Nebraska, the Senate race could come down to whether voters believe Dan Osborn is a Democrat. In Montana, Seth Bodnar faces that problem, plus another one: Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead, who stayed in the race despite calls to drop out, says he doesn’t share key Democratic values.

Will this split the anti-incumbent vote between the Independent and Democrat, or will the Democrat’s accusations result in people viewing Bodnar as more independent than in the races where there is no one with a (D) next to their name on the ballot?

Only the results in November will answer this question. Absentee ballots went out October 9. This week, the state’s Democratic Party chair resigned and endorsed Bodnar. With less than three weeks until the election, there’s sure to be a lot more jockeying for position in the Treasure State.

The Race

The race started with a last-minute switch. Republican Sen. Steve Daines had been running for a third term. On March 4, minutes before the filing deadline, former US Attorney Kurt Alme filed for the seat.

Daines then withdrew and endorsed him. Endorsements from Trump, Sen. Tim Sheehy, and Gov. Greg Gianforte arrived within hours. Members of both parties criticized the move as an example of the type of electoral gaming that voters hate.

Bodnar then entered the race, two months after resigning as president of the University of Montana. Former Sen. Jon Tester’s apparent support for an independent run angered many Democrats.

Alme won the June 2 primary with about 76% of the vote. Bankhead won the Democratic nomination with about 44% over former state Rep. Reilly Neill.

Pressure on Bankhead to quit came next. In July, 17 Democratic legislators asked either Bankhead or Bodnar to drop out. Their letter implored both Bankhead and Bodnar to consider traditional campaign metrics, many of which Bodnar was leading at the time (polling; fundraising; volunteer sign-ups).

A pro-Bodnar super PAC, Montana Freedom PAC, paid for signs and ads urging Bankhead to leave. The August 10 withdrawal deadline passed with her still on the ballot.

The latest break came this week. Shannon O’Brien resigned as Montana Democratic Party chair and endorsed Bodnar the day after all four candidates met in Bozeman for the race’s main televised debate.

The Candidates

Seth Bodnar (I) is a West Point graduate, Rhodes Scholar, and former Green Beret who served in Iraq. He led the University of Montana from 2018 until January 2026. He qualified for the ballot with nearly 30,000 signatures from 52 counties, more than twice the requirement. His backers cross party lines. On the Democratic side are Tester, former Sen. Max Baucus, and former Gov. Steve Bullock. On the Republican side is former Gov. Marc Racicot. He also has the Montana AFL-CIO, Montana Conservation Voters, and VoteVets. Like many other independent candidates this cycle, he has said he wouldn’t caucus with either party. Republicans cite his 2012 registration as a Democrat in Connecticut as evidence against that pledge (he re-registered as an independent in 2014).

Kurt Alme (R) was twice appointed US Attorney for Montana by Trump, most recently confirmed in 2025. He previously led the state Department of Revenue under Gov. Judy Martz. He is running on public safety, affordability, and support for Trump’s agenda. At the Bozeman debate, he grouped Bodnar and Bankhead together as his “two liberal opponents.”

Alani Bankhead (D) is a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel and leadership coach from Helena. She is running on universal health care and lifting the Social Security payroll tax cap. She has called on Bodnar to drop out, stating that he has never won an election and is instead a candidate picked by party leadership, similar to how Alme entered the race

Kyle Austin (L) is a Billings pharmacist and twice ran in the Republican House primary. He won the Libertarian primary narrowly, but the state Libertarian Party disavowed him.

In many ways, this race is an interesting intersection between party power, identity, and individual candidates. There is a hand-picked Republican candidate who ended up in the race due to backroom party machinations. A Democrat who won the primary but who has faced leadership calls to drop out from before she was even the nominee. An independent who has seen institutional Democratic (and Republican) support. And a Libertarian who is disavowed by his own party.

The Money

Bodnar has proven to be a prolific fundraiser, outraising the rest of the field combined. However, he is also spending that money faster than his Republican opponent:

FEC filings through June 30. Third-quarter reports are due October 15.

Polling

Every public three-way poll shows Alme ahead, while Bodnar leads Bankhead in each poll. However, Alme never breaks 50%:

Head-to-head polling shows what Bodnar’s allies have been arguing for months. A Hart Research survey released by Forward Montana, which endorsed Bodnar, had Alme and Bodnar tied at 46% in a two-way race. A GQR poll paid for by the nonprofit Contours had Bodnar ahead, 50% to 44%. Both came from groups aligned with Bodnar, so take them with a grain of salt.

Why It Matters

Polls (and betting markets) have the Nebraska and Montana Senate races as the two most likely for the independent to win. The races are similar, with one key difference: Osborn’s Democratic opponent dropped out of the race, leaving him to run against Sen. Ricketts head-to-head.

That didn’t happen in Montana, despite many institutional Democrats and party leaders calling for Bankhead to step aside.

Democratic Chair O’Brien’s resignation shows what that split costs, and polls show the difference between the two races.

Many people, especially independents, lament that party identification takes precedence on election day, even when voters have misgivings about the candidate from their party. In Montana, it’ll be interesting to see if the endorsements, money, and polling can cause Democrats to move past their party identification and vote against the Democrat and for the independent, given the evidence that he has a better chance at unseating an incumbent they dislike.

If Bodnar wins, it will show that an independent can build a coalition strong enough that a party’s voters leave their own nominee without the party’s permission. If he loses to Alme but outpaces Bankhead, but with her share larger than his margin of defeat, it will be a strong argument against the way that people engage the spoiler argument against independents.

2028 might see more people running outside of a party label, with support of a minority party that otherwise likely wouldn’t have a chance in a state that skews heavily towards the (D) or (R) label.