Betting on Democracy: Prediction Markets, Polls, and the Independent Voter Uprising

"Prediction markets react in real time, and they can show you an edge long before the polls do.” — Chris Gerlacher

In this episode of the Independent Voter Podcast, Chad and Cara dive into the exploding world of political prediction markets with special guest Chris Gerlacher of Prediction News—unpacking how platforms like Kalshi and crypto-based markets are reshaping how insiders gauge races from California governor to New York City mayor. Chad and Cara also highlight Shawn Griffiths’ latest election reform roundup at ivn.us, covering new signature drives in Oregon, Nevada, and Oklahoma to end taxpayer-funded closed primaries and expand rights for independent voters, as well as the gritty reality of signature gathering and ballot access. Plus, Cara breaks down a Politico gerrymandering poll that ignores independent voters and shares how unlikely allies—from Democrats to MAGA Republicans—can find common ground on fixing the system, even in a hyper-polarized era.