Betting on Democracy: Prediction Markets, Polls, and the Independent Voter Uprising
In this episode of the Independent Voter Podcast, Chad and Cara dive into the exploding world of political prediction markets with special guest Chris Gerlacher of Prediction News—unpacking how platforms like Kalshi and crypto-based markets are reshaping how insiders gauge races from California gove
"Prediction markets react in real time, and they can show you an edge long before the polls do.” — Chris Gerlacher
In this episode of the Independent Voter Podcast, Chad and Cara dive into the exploding world of political prediction markets with special guest Chris Gerlacher of Prediction News—unpacking how platforms like Kalshi and crypto-based markets are reshaping how insiders gauge races from California governor to New York City mayor. Chad and Cara also highlight Shawn Griffiths’ latest election reform roundup at ivn.us, covering new signature drives in Oregon, Nevada, and Oklahoma to end taxpayer-funded closed primaries and expand rights for independent voters, as well as the gritty reality of signature gathering and ballot access. Plus, Cara breaks down a Politico gerrymandering poll that ignores independent voters and shares how unlikely allies—from Democrats to MAGA Republicans—can find common ground on fixing the system, even in a hyper-polarized era.
By posting a comment, you agree to adhere to our
etiquette rules: No partisan attacks, no personal attacks, substantiate your sources, no self-promotion.
Contact IVN
Questions about this article or our coverage? Send us a message. A free IVN member account is required.
Message sent
Thanks, we’ll review it and get back to you if needed.
Message not sent
Sorry, something went wrong. Please try again.
Sign in to send a message
Messages are tied to your IVN member account. Signing in is free and takes a few seconds.
Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa discusses his defiance of California Democratic Party pressure to drop out of the governor's race and his critique of party strategy and fiscal policy.
With Democrats moving left and Republicans moving right, more and more moderates and independents are left politically homeless. Paul Rieckhoff argues that the future belongs to independent voters, who are close making up a majority in the US.
President Trump's new USPS ballot rule has Republicans and Democrats divided. On this episode, hosts break down what the rule actually does, why a Supreme Court ruling this week is more limited than headlines suggest, and California's fight over open primaries.
In his weekly Whiskey Tango Foxtrot Wednesday hit with Connell McShane on News Nation, Paul lays out the great American betrayal of Afghanistan, the Afghan allies still hung out to dry, and the surging map of independent veteran candidates the legacy media keeps missing.
Independent Voter Podcast
Righteous Media
