Betting on Democracy: Prediction Markets, Polls, and the Independent Voter Uprising
In this episode of the Independent Voter Podcast, Chad and Cara dive into the exploding world of political prediction markets with special guest Chris Gerlacher of Prediction News—unpacking how platforms like Kalshi and crypto-based markets are reshaping how insiders gauge races from California gove
"Prediction markets react in real time, and they can show you an edge long before the polls do.” — Chris Gerlacher
In this episode of the Independent Voter Podcast, Chad and Cara dive into the exploding world of political prediction markets with special guest Chris Gerlacher of Prediction News—unpacking how platforms like Kalshi and crypto-based markets are reshaping how insiders gauge races from California governor to New York City mayor. Chad and Cara also highlight Shawn Griffiths’ latest election reform roundup at ivn.us, covering new signature drives in Oregon, Nevada, and Oklahoma to end taxpayer-funded closed primaries and expand rights for independent voters, as well as the gritty reality of signature gathering and ballot access. Plus, Cara breaks down a Politico gerrymandering poll that ignores independent voters and shares how unlikely allies—from Democrats to MAGA Republicans—can find common ground on fixing the system, even in a hyper-polarized era.
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Chad Peace and Cara McCormick sit down with Political No Brainer host Jeff Rabinowitz to unpack how Florida's two-party system buries voting reform - and the closed-primary lawsuit now knocking on the Supreme Court's door.
You'd think Democrats and MAGA Republicans agree on nothing - but they just quietly teamed up to do one specific thing: shut 7 million California independent voters out of the primary. We're naming names.
Cara and Shawn break down the manufactured "jungle primary" panic out of California (there's roughly an 8% chance of a two-Republican general), then get into Wes Moore's surprise open-primary moment on Bill Maher and the awkward walk back that followed.
Chad Peace and Cara McCormick sit down with Political No Brainer host Jeff Rabinowitz to unpack how Florida's two-party system buries voting reform - and the closed-primary lawsuit now knocking on the Supreme Court's door.
You'd think Democrats and MAGA Republicans agree on nothing - but they just quietly teamed up to do one specific thing: shut 7 million California independent voters out of the primary. We're naming names.
Cara and Shawn break down the manufactured "jungle primary" panic out of California (there's roughly an 8% chance of a two-Republican general), then get into Wes Moore's surprise open-primary moment on Bill Maher and the awkward walk back that followed.
In this must-listen episode of the Independent Voter Podcast, Cara Brown McCormick has a one-on-one conversation with former California State Senator and Independent Voter Project Co-Founder Steve Peace to break down what happened in the California governor’s debate.
Independent Voter Podcast
Lisa Camooso Miller
