Shawn Griffiths
For months, independent voters were told to pick a side or sit on the sideline in most states while party members voted on their nominees for Congress. Now, with Election Day less than 4 weeks away, many candidates understand how much they need this voting bloc
Especially Republicans in this year’s midterm cycle.
A new Reuters review found that GOP nominees in 41 of 62 closely watched House and Senate contests have either broken with President Donald Trump on policy or have tried to distance themselves a bit.
Voters aren’t seeing outright repudiations of Trump. However, candidates have split with the White House on individual policies, skipped presidential events, or toned down how prominently they feature Trump in their campaign materials.
Reuters found that 12 candidates removed Trump's name, image, or endorsement from their campaign websites entirely. Most did so after they had secured their party's nomination.
The reason? Campaign advisers say it is to appeal to independent voters.
The Independent Voter Becomes the Target
The political incentives in the primary versus the general election aren’t difficult to see.
The most highly motivated primary base in the Republican Party still supports the president, and all it took was one word from Trump for them to support or oppose a candidate.
Just look at Texas. US Sen. John Cornyn got more votes than Ken Paxton in the primary, but after Trump endorsed Paxton in the runoff, Cornyn lost.
Low-turnout party primaries incentivize candidates to appeal (or pander) to the voters who show up. These voters tend to be older, more partisan, and lean toward ideological extremes.
The general election is a different story.
While most congressional races are considered a done deal at this point, the “toss up” and “lean” districts will come down to a margin of victory within 5 percentage points. And, independent voters will cast the deciding votes in many of these races.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed this week found Democrats leading Republicans 37% to 21% among registered independent voters in the congressional ballot. Notably, 28% of this bloc remained undecided.
Those remaining voters could make up the existing gap between the two parties or sink one side completely. For some candidates, this means walking a very thin rope in an increasingly uncertain election cycle.
Some candidates can’t afford to lose Trump’s support, but they also see where public opinion is currently. Take, for example, Nebraska.
Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts is running against independent candidate Dan Osborn. Ricketts is 1 of 11 Republican candidates identified by Reuters who have split with Trump on a specific policy while continuing to support him more broadly.
I appreciate the Administration’s work to lower grocery prices. Short term policy shifts do not equal long term solutions. Flooding the market with lower quality beef compromises Nebraska farmers and ranchers. They should be enabled to grow herd sizes and meet consumer demand.
— Senator Pete Ricketts (@SenatorRicketts) August 21, 2026
Ricketts criticized Trump's proposal to increase beef imports before appearing alongside the president at a Nebraska campaign rally this week.
Iowa Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-1) has also broken with the administration on multiple issues, including beef imports and presidential war powers related to Iran, while continuing to appear with Trump at other events.
A recent YouGov poll has Ricketts at a statistical tie with Osborn, 47%-48%. Some polling has Ricketts up. Some have Osborn up. RealClearPolling labels the contest a toss-up.
In Iowa’s 1st Congressional District, Miller-Meeks looks like she is in danger of losing her seat. While public polling is sparse, a July survey put Democrat Christina Bohannan at 40%, Miller-Meeks at 35%, and independent Michael Bridgford at 11%.
What’s more, independent voters make up the largest registered voting bloc in IA-1. Nearly 200,000 voters in the district, according to an August report, are registered “no party,” including voters listed as “inactive.”
The maneuvering seen with Ricketts and Miller-Meeks isn’t surprising, especially in a political system in which candidates are incentivized to behave one way when running for a party nomination and another way when running in November.
The Primary-General Election Divide
Voters understand what is happening.
A national survey conducted by Emerson College Polling for RealClear Opinion Research and the Unite America Institute found that 43% of registered voters said primaries encourage candidates to appeal to the most partisan or ideological voters.
Shawn Griffiths
Just 18% said primaries encourage candidates to appeal to a broad majority.
Independent voters also participated in the primary process at lower rates.
Only 25% of respondents said they voted in a 2026 primary. Among independents, that number fell to 17%. More than a quarter of these voters said they couldn’t vote because their states didn’t allow it.
In most cases, by the time these independent voters are able to cast a ballot, they will have limited to no influence on the outcome because roughly 90% of US House races are considered safe for the Republican or Democratic Party.
This is why candidates appeal to the political extremes in the primary and then in the few competitive general elections that exist, they may move more to the center. Then, suddenly, independent voters become the most sought-after members of the electorate.
To be clear, both parties and their candidates play this game.
They treat independent voters like they don’t exist for much of the year, but then change their tune weeks before November. This is especially true in midterm elections when the sitting president is unpopular.
The Reuters findings may be centered on Republicans navigating Trump's standing with voters this year, but Democrats used similar tactics during the Obama and Biden presidencies.
When control of Congress is at stake, candidates know independent voters can’t be ignored.