Matt Shinners
Independent candidates are making waves across the US, but they are also starting to hit the toughest barriers erected by the two-party machinery.
This week, we had a shocking exit, signature deadlines, and a sitting congressman who is fighting for his political career.
And yet, this week offers a master class in key advantages ranked choice voting and other reforms have in improving the system, according to reformers.
Author's Note: This is the second installment of my weekly update tracking independent candidates, voters, and reforms across the US. If you know of a candidate running on an independent line that you think should be included or a reform effort that is being ignored elsewhere, please reach out to matt@ivn.us.
Candidate Updates
Michigan Governor: Mike Duggan Drops Out
The biggest independent story of the week wasn't a campaign launch. It was a campaign ending.
Former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan ended his independent bid for Michigan governor on Thursday, May 21. He cited recent polling showing his support slipping (though still in double digits) and a fundraising network that failed to appear.
"If we were even in the polls and behind in fundraising, we have a path to winning," Duggan wrote in an open letter to supporters. "If we were behind in the polls and even in fundraising, we have a path. But we're behind in both."
Duggan didn't just blame polling headwinds. He pointed at the structural problem facing every well-funded independent: the national fundraising infrastructure for third-path candidates doesn't yet exist at the scale that party machines have built over decades.
With the Iran war and spiking gas prices dramatically boosting Democratic enthusiasm and pushing independents to support that party as a check on the current Republican trifecta at the national level, the voters most likely to have crossed over to him were consolidating behind the Democratic candidate.
The race now defaults to what most observers expected before Duggan entered: Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson vs. Republican Rep. John James in a conventional partisan fight for one of the most competitive governorships in the country (the candidates will be established on August 4 primaries, but these two currently have significant leads in polls).
Duggan's exit is a cautionary tale while also suggesting a clear next step for independents who want to elect more candidates outside of the two-party system. His final letter named the exact obstacle: the independent fundraising ecosystem is still "too much in its infancy."
That's a fixable problem. It just wasn't fixed in time for 2026 in Michigan.
Montana: Bodnar's Moment of Truth
Independent Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president and Army Green Beret, has a hard deadline of May 26 to submit just over 13,000 verified signatures to the Montana Secretary of State's office.
If he clears the threshold, he will appear on November's general election ballot; if he doesn't, Montana's open Senate seat becomes a straight two-party race.
His campaign had been confident heading into the deadline week, and he leads all Montana Senate candidates in fundraising with over $2.1 million raised (a significant lead over Kurt Alme’s $1.2 million, the second highest fundraising total and the most likely Republican nominee).
Bodnar faces a race rated "likely Republican" by Sabato's Crystal Ball, where he'll almost certainly face Republican primary winner Kurt Alme in November (the GOP primary is June 2). His challenge, like all the independents below, is the vote-splitting concern: Montana Democrats have four candidates competing in their own June primary.
Nebraska: A New Wrinkle
As we noted before, the Nebraska Senate race has been messy. After Cindy Burbank won the Democratic primary, promising to drop out and clear the way for Dan Osborn's path to a one-on-one race with Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts, it appeared that it might get less so.
The party machinery in the state has other plans.
The Office of Attorney General, Republican Mike Hilgers, confirmed to the Nebraska Examiner that the Secretary of State’s Office has asked for guidance about whether they can keep Burbank on the ballot. Should the state election officials decide to keep her name on the ballot, a lawsuit would almost certainly follow, with the court’s ultimately deciding if her name—and thus a Democratic candidate—would appear in the race.
Osborn's campaign is gathering signatures for general election ballot access (he needs 4,000, and has said he'll submit well above that in June). However, his campaign has signaled that this won’t be an issue, and his fundraising has kept pace with Ricketts. The Cook Political Report still lists the race as Likely Republican, but that’s a downshift from the Solid Republican rating before April 13.
The AP's major story on the Democratic Party's pivot toward supporting independent candidates in red states they don’t believe they can win put Osborn front and center.
Maine Governor: Rick Bennett Hits the Ballot
Independent Rick Bennett, a Maine state senator and former Maine Republican Party chairman running for governor, had 4,517 signatures verified by the Secretary of State, above the 4,000 required to have his name appear on the ballot and ahead of the June 1 deadline.
Bennett left the Republican Party in June 2025 and has positioned himself as a problem-solver in a state tired of partisan gridlock. The Democratic and Republican primaries are scheduled for June 9, and Bennett will then face the nominees of both parties in November.
Idaho: Achilles vs. Risch Set for November
Republican incumbent Sen. Jim Risch won his party's primary on May 19 with 64% of the vote, setting up a general election field that now includes independent Todd Achilles, a former Army tank commander and former Democratic state representative. David Roth won the Democratic nomination with 64% of the vote, setting up a three-way race in November.
Idaho party registration skews strongly towards Republicans, with ~62% of registered voters being members of that party. Independents make up the second largest voting bloc at ~27%, with Democrats at 11.5%. These registration numbers are reflected in the party primary turnout numbers, with Risch receiving a number of votes (~78k) more than double the total turnout in the Democratic primary (~32k).
Idaho allows parties to decide who can vote in their primaries; the Democratic Party allows independents to participate.
California's 6th: Kiley's Primary Next Week
Rep. Kevin Kiley, the only sitting independent member of the House of Representatives, faces his first electoral test since leaving the Republican Party in the nonpartisan Top Two primary on June 2 (though ballot drop-off locations have been open since May 5).
In California’s system, all candidates from across parties run in a single primary, with the top two vote getters moving on to the general election.
Kiley holds a significant cash-on-hand advantage ($2.1 million vs. under $200K for his nearest rival) but is running in a district drawn to be solidly Democratic under Proposition 50's mid-cycle redistricting. He currently represents California’s 3rd Congressional District.
Yes, mid-cycle redistricting makes covering races with incumbents a bit of a Monty Python sketch.
Independent Voters: The DNC's Blind Spot
The DNC's controversial 2024 election post-mortem dropped this week, and it largely ignored the Independent voters who swung the election.
Independents made up 34% of the 2024 electorate, according to Edison Research exit polling, essentially tying Republicans and outpacing Democrats (who came in at just 31%). The party wrote nearly 200 pages on why it lost, but it didn't address the significant swing, particularly in swing states, of Independent voters away from their candidate and to the Republican one.
What Georgia and Texas Are Teaching Us About Runoffs
This week offers a master class in key advantages ranked choice voting supporters claim their reform offers to Americans.
Georgia is now heading into a June 16 Republican runoff for both the US Senate seat and the governor's race after neither race produced a majority winner on May 19. How much might this cost Georgia taxpayers? Kennesaw State University estimated that the 2020 Senatorial election runoff cost taxpayers ~$75 million. Such runoffs could be avoided if the state used some form of instant-runoff voting.
Texas is holding its Republican Senate primary runoff today, May 26, nearly three months after the March 3 primary failed to produce a majority winner between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Ranked choice voting would eliminate both runoffs entirely. Voters would rank their choices once; if no candidate reaches a majority in the first round, lower-ranked candidates are eliminated and their votes redistributed instantly at no added cost, with no drop in turnout, and no months-long delay.
Have a tip on an independent candidate or reform effort? Reach out to matt@ivn.us.