Shawn Griffiths
WASHINGTON, D.C. — It didn't take long for Monday's Supreme Court decision on President Donald Trump's mail-voting executive order to produce the predictable partisan responses.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom said the court had allowed President Trump to move ahead "for now" with a plan to "disenfranchise voters across the country," and vowed another lawsuit against what he called "Orwellian rules."
The White House called the ruling a "major win for the security of American elections" and said the administration's policies are "commonsense measures" to protect mail ballots.
However, SCOTUS’s decision is far narrower than either reaction makes it sound:
- It did not rule that Trump's executive order on mail voting is constitutional;
- It did not uphold the Postal Service's new ballot-mail rule; and
- It did not give the USPS explicit authorization to reject mail-in/absentee ballots for the November election.
A separate federal injunction still prevents that from happening.
First, Here’s What the Supreme Court Actually Did
In Trump v. California, the court voted 6-3 to lift an injunction obtained by 23 states and Washington, D.C., against portions of Trump's March executive order. Specifically, the majority concluded that the states challenged too early.
When the states filed suit, the executive order was a directive for the USPS to put certain policies in place. However, since the final rule did not yet exist, the states were not able to provide sufficient evidence of harm.
“Federal courts review final rules, not proposed rules—and certainly not antecedent internal directives to propose a rule. If the Postal Service’s final rule harms the States, they may challenge that rule,” the majority wrote.
The court noted that it was not ruling on the legality of Trump’s order or what future implementation might look like. And, it left the door open to another challenge now that a final rule has been issued.
So, What Does the Final USPS Rule Do?
Under the final rule (issued on August 21), election offices must send all mail ballots for federal general, special, and runoff elections in envelopes that contain the Official Election Mail logo, are compatible with postal automation equipment, and include unique Intelligent Mail barcodes.
If implemented, election officials would also have to submit certain information through a new Federal Ballot Mail Portal, including a voter's name, mailing address, and the barcodes associated with the ballot envelopes.
USPS says birth dates, Social Security numbers, and other voter registration information would not be uploaded.
Could USPS Refuse to Mail Ballots?
Yes — but only if the rule is allowed to take effect for this election and not in the way some of the rhetoric suggests.
Before accepting a batch of outgoing federal ballots, USPS would check whether the mailing complies with the rule's preparation and data requirements.
The USPS states that noncompliant mailings "will not be accepted" and will be returned to the authorized ballot mailer so the errors can be corrected before the ballots are resubmitted.
The issue here is that this creates the possibility that eligible voters will experience a delay in receiving their ballot because of an administrative, technical, or envelope-design problem.
It is even possible eligible voters won’t get their ballot at all in some cases.
But this is not the same thing as a postal carrier or USPS office deciding which voters should or should not receive a ballot.
USPS Would Not Decide Who Is Eligible to Vote
The USPS does not determine voter eligibility. It doesn’t have the authority—and the president can’t give it this authority.
It is the responsibility of the states to decide who is registered and eligible to receive a ballot. The USPS’s rule says it will not manage voter rolls or determine such matters.
Further, the postal rule does not verify citizenship, which is an important distinction from Trump’s broader executive order that separately directs DHS to pursue citizenship lists.
And once an outgoing ballot has been accepted into the mail, USPS says its existing processing and delivery practices remain in place.
What About the Ballot a Voter Sends Back?
This is an important question that has gotten little attention because it is likely to cause confusion if the rule is allowed to stay.
The verification process applies to outgoing ballots mailed to voters from election offices, not returned ballots. USPS specifically amended the final rule to make this clear.
So, when a voter mails back their ballot, it won’t go through the same portal-matching process a second time.
As long as the return envelope still meets the new design and barcode requirements, it will be delivered directly to election officials.
Military and overseas ballots covered by the federal Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (UOCAVA) are also expressly exempt from the new rule.
None of This Is in Effect for November — Yet
This is the most important thing voters need to know.
On August 11, US District Judge Indira Talwani issued a nationwide preliminary injunction preventing USPS from implementing Section 3 of Trump's executive order for November.
This is a separate case involving the League of Women Voters, not the states. Talwani ruled that the League was already suffering concrete injuries—specifically to its voter education efforts and harm to its members that rely on mail voting.
The injunction bars USPS from refusing to transmit mail-in or absentee ballots or implementing the rule's requirements for November. Since the Supreme Court’s decision regarded an entirely different case, it did not eliminate this injunction.
USPS acknowledges the remaining obstacle in its own final rule, saying it will not implement the requirements for 2026 unless the government obtains relief from the injunction.
Even Then, There Is the Calendar
Election administrators have warned that imposing major changes this close to Election Day would create logistical problems.
Notably, the National Association of State Election Directors (NASED) told USPS in July that:
- Election systems are commonly locked down before elections for security and stability;
- Many ballot envelopes are purchased months in advance; and
- Thousands of election offices and postal employees would need to understand the new procedures.
In other words, most states have already purchased the envelopes they will use for the November election. And, this would not only impose a burden on election officials, but USPS employees as well.
“In September 2024, NASED, along with our colleagues at the National Association of Secretaries of State (NASS) and 29 associations of local election officials, sent a letter to then-Postmaster General Louis DeJoy raising our concerns about USPS service going into the November 2024 General Election,” the NASED states.
“Chief among those concerns was that the service issues our members experienced nationwide demonstrated inconsistent training and guidance provided to USPS employees by USPS leadership. The proposed Ballot Mail rule would represent a significant change in process for USPS employees, and we are concerned there would not be ample time for training in advance of any election in 2026.”
NASED further warned inconsistent enforcement could affect voter participation.
A group of election officials assembled by the Bipartisan Policy Center went further, recommending in a letter that USPS postpone implementation until after the 2026 election.
“BPC’s Task Force on Elections has long recommended that ‘a one-year lead is the optimal amount of time for the implementation of new policies and procedures’ to ensure election officials have sufficient time to implement and communicate changes,” the letter states.
“Even under extreme circumstances, changes made less than 90 days before an election risk administrative mistakes and voter confusion.”
The letter was sent in July. There were 74 days left until Election Day when the final rule was issued.
USPS responded to some of the concerns in the final version. For example, election offices do not have to directly integrate voter-registration databases with the federal portal; information can be submitted using an Excel template and supplemented as additional ballots are issued.
Whether those changes make nationwide implementation feasible this close to Election Day remains the question.
What Voters Need to Know Right Now
For voters, nothing has actually changed—yet.
There is no new USPS registration process for voters. There is no new federal form to receive a mail ballot. Postal workers are not determining voter eligibility or checking citizenship.
And USPS cannot currently use the new rule to reject mail-in/absentee ballots for this year’s election.
Does this mean the Trump administration will take a mile when SCOTUS gave it an inch? It’s possible.
The president often takes a “better to ask forgiveness than permission” approach—except without the forgiveness part.
SCOTUS could also eliminate the remaining injunction.
Talwani ruled Tuesday that USPS violated her order by approving a final rule, but wouldn’t block it. Still, her injunction stands.
At the moment, this is creating more of a headache on the legal side of the issue than on the election administration side.
For now, concerned voters need to take a deep breath. Things have not yet descended into chaos as some would suggest.