California's Most Powerful Voting Bloc Is the One Staying Home

California's June 2 primary is open to every registered voter. Democrat, Republican, or No Party Preference, every voter gets the same ballot for governor, Congress, and statewide office. All candidates appear together. The top two advance to November, regardless of party. It is the most voter-inclusive primary system in the country.

And the voters with the most to gain are the ones least likely to use it.

In California's 2022 gubernatorial primary, 81 percent of independents stayed home. That is the worst turnout of any group on the rolls. More independent voters skipped the primary than every Republican who voted that year combined. 5.1 million NPP ballots went uncast. 2 million Republican ballots got counted. The math is decisive: when independents stay home, the partisan electorate picks both November candidates for everyone.

Latino voters are the largest piece of that gap. Latinos make up roughly 40 percent of California's population and accounted for more than 90 percent of eligible-electorate growth over the last decade. They are also the demographic group most likely to register No Party Preference, with 30 percent of Latino registered voters declining to affiliate with either major party. In the 2024 primary, Latino turnout ran 26 points behind the rest of the state's electorate. Spanish-language voters turned out at roughly 20 percent, compared to 36 percent for English-language voters.

The Independent Voter Project's Your Primary / Tu Primaria campaign is the only statewide effort built specifically to close that gap before June 2. The campaign tells low-propensity voters what is on the ballot, why their vote counts more in June than in November, and how to cast it in any language.

The core fact: 6.9 million Californians registered as No Party Preference can vote for any candidate, in any race, in the June 2 primary. In 2022, 81 percent of them did not. If the gap holds, partisan voters will pick the November ballot for everyone else.
Source: California Secretary of State June 2022 Statement of Vote; CA SOS 60-day report (April 2026); L2 voter file.

Interviews are available in Los Angeles, San Diego, and Sacramento. Spokespeople include nonpartisan election reform experts, California political analysts, Latino voter research specialists, and civic leaders on both sides of the partisan aisle. All interview requests routed through Dan Schnur, dan.schnur@mindspring.com.

What They're Saying

"Protecting primaries means protecting voters. Closed primaries shut people out and silence independent voices. We should be expanding participation, not restricting it."
- Assemblymember Anamarie Avila Farias. IVN, May 18, 2026.

"If we went back to the partisan system, it would not be as bad as where we are. Period."
- Former Secretary of State Shirley Weber. CalMatters, 2022.

Campaign website: yourprimary.com

Paid Video Ads

Ads also distributed via Instagram and YouTube.

The Numbers That Matter

California voter turnout, June 2022 gubernatorial primary, by party registration. Source: California Secretary of State, Statement of Vote; L2 voter file.

More independents stayed home than every Republican who voted.

5.1 million independent voters did not return a ballot in the 2022 California gubernatorial primary. 2 million Republicans did. That is the entire margin the major parties currently rely on to control the candidates who advance to November.

Story Angles

The following angles are available for print, digital, and broadcast coverage. Each can stand alone or be combined. All angles are anchored in California voter data. Spokespeople, data, and video assets are available to support each.

DATA / LEAD STORY

California's Biggest Voting Bloc Has the Lowest Turnout. A New Campaign Is Trying to Change That.

Independent (No Party Preference) voters now outnumber registered Republicans in California. They have full legal access to every candidate on the June 2 primary ballot. In 2022, 81 percent of them did not cast a ballot. The Your Primary / Tu Primaria campaign is the only statewide effort built to reach those voters before June 2 with a clear message: one ballot, every candidate, top two go to November.

LATINO COMMUNITY / SPANISH-LANGUAGE

Latinos Are 40% of California. They're 29% of Likely Voters. They Could Decide June 2.

California Latinos are the fastest-growing piece of the state electorate and the demographic group most likely to register No Party Preference. Yet Latino primary turnout ran 26 points behind the rest of the state's electorate in 2024. Spanish-language voters turned out at roughly 20 percent versus 36 percent for English-language voters. The Tu Primaria campaign is bilingual by design. Spanish-language spokespeople are available.

STRUCTURAL / EXPLAINER

Independent Voters Have Access. Campaigns Are Not Speaking to Them.

California removed the legal barrier in 2010. Proposition 14 opened the state primary to every voter, regardless of party. But campaigns still spend their money on partisan lists. Media still frames primaries as Democrat versus Republican. Independent voters are treated like spectators, and they vote like spectators. The structural fix worked. The behavioral fix has not arrived. That is the story Your Primary is built around.

POLITICAL / NEWS

Both Parties Now Agree on One Thing: Locking Out the Voters They Don't Control.

The California Democratic Party chair and Republican operatives are using the same word, 'jungle primary,' and pushing the same goal: repealing the state's nonpartisan top-two system. That bipartisan alignment is rare, and it is aimed squarely at the more than 6 million Californians who registered No Party Preference. IVP is the only organized California effort pushing back.

CIVIC / DEMOCRACY

California Voters Built This System Over 115 Years. Party Bosses Want It Back.

California's nonpartisan primary tradition dates to 1911, when Progressive Era reformers broke the Southern Pacific Railroad's stranglehold on state politics. Proposition 14, which created the current top-two system, passed in 2010 over the objections of both major parties. The same forces that lost that fight are trying to reverse it. Most California voters have no idea.

BROADCAST / MAN-ON-STREET

Real California Voters. Real Reactions. Most Have No Idea How Their Primary Works.

IVP is producing a man-on-the-street video series capturing California voters' reactions to the facts about the June 2 primary. Footage is available as B-roll for broadcast use. The consistent finding: most voters are surprised to learn that any registered voter can vote for any candidate in California's primary, and that both parties are working to end that.

Key Facts

All figures California-specific, verified, and available for use in coverage. IVP can provide source documentation on request.

Why Independent and Latino Voters Skip the Primary

California removed the legal barriers in 2010. The participation gap that remains is behavioral, informational, and infrastructural. Five drivers explain most of it.

1. Campaigns spend their money on partisan lists.

California adopted the top-two primary in 2010, but campaign budgets still flow through the same partisan turnout models that existed before Proposition 14. Voter contact, mail, digital targeting, and door-knocks are built off party voter files. Independents are not contacted at the same rate, not framed as decisive, and not given a reason to participate. The data backs this up: PPIC research finds independent likely voters are far more moderate than party voters (51 percent identify as moderate, versus 31 percent of Democratic and 22 percent of Republican likely voters). They are also persuadable. Campaigns are not investing accordingly.

2. Media frames primaries as Democrat versus Republican.

If the governor's race is covered mainly as a Democratic concern over which two candidates will advance, independent voters reasonably conclude the contest is not for them. The structural design of California's primary is the opposite. Independent voters have equal standing in every contest. Coverage has not caught up with the law.

3. Latino voters use the system differently, and the system has not adapted.

USC's Center for Inclusive Democracy found that in the 2024 general election, nearly a quarter of Latino voters in California cast ballots in person, a higher share than the overall electorate. Latino vote-by-mail rejection rates also run higher: 1.2 percent for Latino voters versus 0.7 percent for white non-Latino voters. Of those rejected ballots, 65.6 percent were rejected for non-matching signatures. The infrastructure works on paper but produces uneven outcomes by demographic group.

4. Language access falls short.

The California Secretary of State's 2024 Voter's Choice Act report found Spanish-language voters turned out at roughly 20 percent in the 2024 primary, against 36 percent for English-language voters. That gap does not capture every Latino voter (many prefer English-language materials), but it isolates a specific participation problem among voters who interact with elections in Spanish. The report recommended targeted outreach to non-English voters ages 18 to 29, partnerships with community organizations, and easier-to-find translated materials.

5. Voters do not know how the system works.

California's top-two primary is one of the most voter-inclusive in the country, yet most voters cannot describe how it works. They do not know that one ballot lists every candidate. They do not know the top two advance regardless of party. They do not know that staying home in June means partisan voters select the November choices for everyone. That is the gap the Your Primary / Tu Primaria campaign was built to close.

The Your Primary / Tu Primaria Campaign

Your Primary / Tu Primaria is a statewide nonpartisan voter outreach effort from the Independent Voter Project. The campaign is targeted at California's lowest-propensity voters, with a primary focus on independent (NPP) and Latino voters across the state.

Core message

One ballot. Every candidate. Top two go to November. Sit out and partisan voters pick your choices for you.

Tagline: It's a Jungle. Vote in It.

Channels

• Bilingual digital advertising (English and Spanish) across video, display, and social.
• A statewide voter-facing website (yourprimary.com / yourprimary.com/es) with how-to-vote, where-to-vote, and ballot-tracking tools, all routed through the California Secretary of State's official systems.
• Earned media and explanatory journalism via Independent Voter News (IVN.us).
• Man-on-the-street video content documenting California voter reactions to the facts of the June 2 primary.
• Direct-to-voter messaging on the structural threat to the top-two primary now being advanced by leaders of both major parties.

What success looks like

Three measurable outcomes by June 2:

• Lift independent (NPP) ballot return rates above the 2022 baseline of 19 percent.
• Narrow the Latino primary turnout gap relative to the rest of the California electorate.
• Build a documented, persistent California audience of NPP and Latino voters reachable for the November general election and beyond.

Available for Interview

Spokespeople available for print, broadcast, and podcast interviews. All are California-based. All available by phone, video, or in-person within their listed market. To arrange an interview, contact Dan Schnur at dan.schnur@mindspring.com.

Los Angeles

Dan Schnur

California Political Analyst; former Director, Jesse Unruh Institute of Politics, USC  |  dan.schnur@mindspring.com

One of California's most quoted nonpartisan political analysts. Schnur has followed California election reform for decades and can speak with authority on the political dynamics driving the current California-based effort to repeal the top-two primary, and what it would mean for California voters.

Can speak to:

• The bipartisan effort in California to repeal the top-two primary
• How the nonpartisan primary has changed California politics since 2010
• What California independent voters stand to lose if the system is repealed
• Why participation, not partisanship, is the deciding factor on June 2

San Diego

Chad Peace

Attorney; President, IVC Media; helped pass California's Proposition 14 (2010)

Chad is the architect of much of IVP's legal and political strategy on nonpartisan election reform. He played a direct role in passing California's top-two primary and has tracked every legal and legislative challenge to it since. He is a primary source on the 115-year history of California's nonpartisan reform tradition.

Can speak to:

• The legal history of California's top-two primary and its constitutional basis
• Why both California parties oppose the system and what they gain from closing it
• The 115-year arc of California election reform
• What repeal would mean in practical terms for California NPP and independent voters

Juan Hernandez

Creative Lead, IVP 2026 Campaign; Spanish-Language Media Available

Juan leads the creative and bilingual content strategy for Your Primary / Tu Primaria. He can speak to the outreach effort targeting California Latino and Spanish-speaking voters, the cultural framing of the campaign, and the documented gap between Latino voter registration and primary participation in the state.

Can speak to:

• The Tu Primaria bilingual voter outreach campaign in California
• The gap between California Latino voter registration and primary participation
• Why Latino voters in California register independent at higher rates than other groups
• The cultural and civic case for California Latino primary participation

Sacramento

Mike Madrid

Republican Political Consultant; Latino Voter Research Expert

Mike is one of California's most recognized voices on Latino voting behavior and Republican political strategy. He brings a data-driven perspective on why California Latino voter participation in primaries has remained low despite growing registration, and what the stakes are for the 2026 California election and beyond.

Can speak to:

• California Latino primary turnout data and what drives the participation gap
• How California's top-two primary affects Latino political representation
• The Republican case for keeping California's nonpartisan system
• Why both California parties have an interest in low independent voter turnout

Kristen Olsen

Former California Assembly Republican Leader; Centrist Election Reform Advocate

Kristen served as the California Assembly Republican Leader and has since become a leading voice for nonpartisan election reform in California. She brings rare credibility as a Republican who supports the top-two system and can speak to why the effort to repeal it is bad for California voters across the political spectrum.

Can speak to:

• Why a Republican supports defending California's nonpartisan top-two primary
• What the California repeal effort reveals about both parties' relationship with voters
• The case for centrist, reform-minded California candidates under the current system
• What California loses if the primary is closed back to party members

Spokesperson Quotes

The following quotes are drafted and available for attribution with each spokesperson's approval. Contact Dan Schnur to confirm any quote before publication.

"California built the most voter-inclusive primary in the country. The structural fix is done. The behavioral fix is not. Six million independent voters have full access, and four out of five sat out the last gubernatorial primary. That is not apathy. That is a campaign and media ecosystem that still treats independents like they don't matter. We are telling them they do."
Dan Schnur, California Political Analyst. Available for attribution.

"California voters built this system over more than a century to break the stranglehold of party machines on the ballot. Six million Californians didn't register independent to be told their vote doesn't count in June. Right now, party bosses are trying to take it back. The way to stop them is to vote in the primary."
Chad Peace, Attorney; President, IVC Media. Available for attribution.

"Latino voters are 40 percent of California's population, 30 percent of Latino voters are registered with no party at all, and Latino primary turnout ran 26 points behind the rest of the state in 2024. This is the largest unrealized voting bloc in the country. Tu primaria es tu voz. June 2."
Juan Hernandez, Creative Lead, IVP 2026 Campaign. Available for attribution.

"The data on Latino primary participation in California is stark. Millions of voters are sitting out the election that actually determines who ends up on the November ballot. Closing the top-two primary would make that worse, not better. Showing up in June is the most effective answer."
Mike Madrid, Republican Political Consultant; Latino Voter Research Expert. Available for attribution.

"I served as Assembly Republican Leader, and I'll say it clearly: California's top-two primary has been good for voters and bad for party gatekeepers. That's why both parties oppose it. When party leaders unite, they are almost never uniting in voters' interests."
Kristen Olsen, Former California Assembly Republican Leader. Available for attribution.

"This campaign exists because most California voters have no idea what's at stake. We are weeks out from a primary that any registered California voter can participate in, and there is a coordinated effort to make that permanently impossible. That's the story."
Cara McCormick, Independent Voter Project. Available for attribution.

Assets Available for Broadcast

All assets available on request. Contact Dan Schnur to arrange access.

• Paid campaign video ad: IVP's flagship spot for Your Primary / Tu Primaria:
  • Ad 1 "You Are The Lion"
  • Ad 2 "Your Jungle"
• Campaign website: Voter-facing hub for the campaign. Includes California voter registration data, turnout statistics by party, how-to-vote resources, and bilingual versions.
  • English: YourPrimary.com
  • Spanish: TuPrimaria.com
• California voter data and research: Comprehensive California voter registration, turnout, and demographic data. independentvoterproject.org/voter-stats/ca
• IVN journalism and images: California-focused articles, analysis, and explainers. ivn.us
• Social media content: Video and graphics across IVP platforms.
  • Instagram
  • Facebook
  • YouTube
• Spokesperson headshots: High-resolution photos available for all listed California spokespeople. Contact Dan Schnur.

About the Independent Voter Project

The Independent Voter Project (IVP) is a California-based nonpartisan civic organization. IVP played a central role in passing Proposition 14, California's Nonpartisan Top-Two Primary, in 2010. IVP conducts voter education, election research, and public policy advocacy focused on expanding California voter access and reducing the structural advantages held by the two major political parties.

IVP does not endorse candidates or favor any political party. Its work is focused on system design: building election structures that give every California voter an equal voice, regardless of party affiliation.

IVP's media platform, Independent Voter News (IVN.us), is rated Center by AllSides and High Credibility by Media Bias/Fact Check.

independentvoterproject.org  |  ivn.us  |  Campaign: yourprimary.com

Press Contact

All interview requests, asset access, and quote confirmations routed through Dan Schnur. Topic-specific spokespeople (listed in section above) are available through this single point of contact.

Dan Schnur

California Political Analyst; former Director, Jesse Unruh Institute of Politics, USC  |  dan.schnur@mindspring.com

Single point of contact for interview requests, broadcast assets, and on-the-record quotes.