Matt Shinners
With eight days until Election Day, new polling in South Dakota cuts two ways for independent Brian Bengs, while a national Democrat breaks with his party in Montana to endorse the independent.
South Dakota: A Neutral Poll and An Early-Vote Wrinkle
The South Dakota Poll, sponsored by South Dakota News Watch and the University of South Dakota’s Chiesman Center for Democracy, has Sen. Mike Rounds leading Bengs 56% to 37%. Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy surveyed 500 likely voters Oct. 12–14 (±4.5).
Pollster | Dates | Sample | Rounds | Bengs |
Mason-Dixon / SD News Watch–USD | Oct. 12–14 | 500 LV, ±4.5 | 56% | 37% |
Emerson College / KELOLAND | Oct. 19–21 | 803 LV, ±3.5 | 50% | 42% |
Quantus Insights | Oct. 17–19 | 657 LV, ±4.1 | 57% | 36% |
Independents backed Bengs 62% to 30%, with 8% undecided. A third of respondents didn’t recognize Bengs’ name, which suggests he is winning the voters who know him and hasn’t yet reached enough of the rest.
Emerson’s poll adds a wrinkle. It was fielded after absentee voting began, and among respondents who had already cast ballots, Bengs led 55% to 45%. That subsample is small and self-selected.
Rounds’ camp is unbothered. Adviser Rob Skjonsberg framed the race as “common sense versus crazy.” The Bengs campaign countered that Rounds’ allies wouldn’t be spending heavily if they thought the seat was safe.
Montana: Buttigieg Endorses the Independent
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg endorsed Seth Bodnar over Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead on October 23.
“Seth and I don’t agree on everything, but he has spent his adult life serving this country and the next generation,” Buttigieg said, citing Bodnar’s service as a Green Beret and as University of Montana president.
Buttigieg is the most prominent national Democrat to publicly back Bodnar. The former presidential candidate has been fueling rumors of another run, meaning that a prominent potential Democratic presidential candidate has decided to endorse an independent over a member of his own party.
His endorsement follows Shannon O’Brien’s resignation as state party chair to support the independent.
The Republican Party has tried to use such endorsements to paint Bodnar (and the other independent Senate hopefuls) as secret Democrats. Bodnar, for his part, has said he won’t caucus with either party.
The math still favors Republican Kurt Alme. The latest Quantus poll has Alme at 46%, Bodnar at 29%, and Bankhead at 21%. An endorsement is most likely to help Bodnar if it moves Bankhead voters towards the independents, but absentee ballots have been out since October 9.