In light of  China increasing its defense spending 7.5% this year, the Wall Street Journal conducted a poll entitled “Is China a  military threat to the U.S.?”  As of this writing, 151 online visitors  have answered the poll, with 61% answering “no,” China is not a military  threat.

The percentage  increase was actually lower than expected— under double  digits for the first time in two decades—still, the  Pentagon believes this is an understated figure.  Last year, they estimated  China spent $105 to $150 billion, although they only reported $60.19 billion.  If their figure is  correct, they are behind the UK ($60.79 billion) and France ($67  billion).  In relation to their GDP, they are also behind Russia  ($40 billion).  In first place, of course, is the United States ($696  billion).  It will be unlikely our 2010 expenses will be any different,  with a stated budget already set at $663.8 billion.  It is clear what Obama anticipates  in the near future, as he has already requested a $708.2 billion for the 2011 defense budget.

The Boston Globe recently reported that according to  the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction  Proliferation and Terrorism, in a report called “World At Risk,” Iran is  not a serious nuclear threat.  Instead, Pakistan and Asia are at the top  of the list.

What makes people  suspect China wants to attack us in the first place?  Sure, President Obama  recently met with the Dalai Lama despite opposition from China,  as was headline news a couple of weeks ago, but  certainly this alone is not enough to merit an imminent military  threat.  The US sold $6.4 billion of arms (including  missiles, helicopters and mine hunting ships) to Taiwan.  Today, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao assured his  parliament that “peaceful reunification of the motherland” will be  sought with the island.    He made no mention of the US arms  sale.  Hopefully, the threat to sanction the US over the matter will not be  followed up with action.

In 1980 Jack  Anderson of the Washington Post wrote that  Israel, South Africa and Taiwan were working on nuclear weapons  development, at a time when Israel already had a stockpile of over 200 nuclear  bombs.  “Taiwan would be able to destroy Peking and other cities in  mainland China from secure launching sites on its own soil or from naval  vessels far out to sea.”  Interestingly, it is now being  reported that Taiwan is selling nuclear technology to Iran (December,  2009).

China has long  benefited from the energy contracts it holds with Iran, making US  sanctions against Iran difficult.  (For perspective:  their committed investment is more than their defense budget)  After all, we do  owe China three-quarters of a trillion dollars,  a debt they are suspected to be selling at a rate faster than they  are purchasing.  Importing heavily from China deems sanctions  on Iran less effective, to say the least.  The Obama administration is lobbying for  a Chinese exemption to resolve the  conflict, if only on paper.  China has also forged close  relationships with Russia and Venezuela.  Although China has been  accused in the recent past of aiding Iran  in its nuclear development, of late it has joined with Russia in urging Iran to “accept a UN nuclear fuel  proposal,” hoping to ease “concerns about its atomic program.”

Without an active imagination, military  aggression from China does not look like a serious threat.   However, China has been accused of attacking America in a more modern  way.  In an age where information is power, access to information is  vital; especially on a national scale.  Cyber leaks have been  forthcoming, and the prime suspect is also our prime economic benefactor.

While there are quite a few examples, the following  one is quite interesting, especially in light of the  recently passed Cyber Security Enhancement Act of 2009.

American Navy Veteran Shawn Carpenter received public  attention after his TIME interview in 2005.  As a former  Sandia employee he filed a lawsuit for defamation and wrongful  termination.  While at Sandia, he covertly worked with the  Army and later the FBI. Shawn brought to light a series of security  breaches that seemed to be coming form one source (FBI named this source  “Titan Rain”).  These breaches were also found in the  Lockheed Martin Corporation, Redstone Arsenal, NASA and the World Bank  (China is the presumed culprit).

So  why was Shawn fired?  Because he refused to do as his  supervisors advised him: to drop the issue.  Drop the  issue?  Look the other way on breaches of national security?  The implications  are hardly needed.  Shawn won the case and was awarded nearly  $5 million.

Although  bloggers and occasional articles are still mentioning this today,  apparently the lawsuit didn’t seem to matter much to the House.  It appeared to  be very important to include Sandia National Laboratories with the 25^th amendment (of the Cyber  Security Act), as numerous representatives insistently voiced (watch  video, Feb 3^rd).

The suspicious leaks and subsequent cover-up attempts call to mind all  sorts of controversies, which instead of  elaborating on here— and making this into a book— I’ll rest  assured your curiosity will stimulate your imagination and further  research.

In closing, I am  of the strong opinion that when all things are considered, China does  not pose a military threat to us.  Although, even  as a candidate, Obama vowed to do all that  he could to help Taiwan’s democracy, he also made it clear that he  supports the US-PRC Joint Communiques, which insists  that both nations respect each other’s sovereignty.  We can only hope  that selling arms to Taiwan will not escalate to official military aid  directly from the US, should China engage Taiwan in the near future.  If  that happens, we will be engaged with China militarily; however it can  hardly be said that they were the provocateurs.