Russell Dutton
This year, 217 independents have filed to run for Congress across 153 separate races. Most will never appear on a ballot. Of those who do, almost none will win.
That isn't a verdict on the candidates. It's what happens when one person takes on a system designed to ensure they never stand a chance.
A party's nominee only needs to make it through a primary. Once that hurdle is cleared, they inherit a turnkey operation and a label voters recognize. None of it has to be built from scratch. It was built for the last nominee and will be there for the next.
An independent clears one hurdle only to face another. And another. And another.
Gathering signatures — a few hundred in one state, several thousand in another. Building a volunteer network from scratch. Hiring staff, also from scratch. Buying voter data the parties give their nominees for free. And spending half the campaign explaining why a vote for them isn't wasted.
Maybe the biggest hurdle of all is convincing themselves the rest is even worth it.
Some of the obstacles independents face can be legislated away — ballot access, primary reform, the way votes are counted. The others have nothing to do with the rules. Today, dozens of organizations are doing serious work on the first list. Almost no one is paying attention to the second.
Eight years ago, Unite America tried. They backed 30 independent candidates and lost almost every race. But Rome wasn't built in a day, and neither is the infrastructure it will take for independents to win. Donors and data. A reputation with voters. And perhaps most important, people who've done it before. None of that gets built in one cycle.
Their own debrief called the work "a worthwhile endeavor." Unite America has since found success backing ballot measures.
But reform alone isn't enough.
California has had fifteen years to prove it. It hasn't. Top Two primaries were supposed to open elections to independent candidates. In 2024, exactly one of the state's 52 congressional districts had an independent in the general election. Since the system was implemented, only twelve independents have made it past the primary — and none have won.
Reform didn't remove the problem. It just moved it.
An independent in California faces in June what an independent everywhere else faces in November. A fairer election with the same two choices isn't progress.
The solution is to start small. Not thirty candidates in one cycle, but one or two — in districts with an open lane and an incumbent voters have reason to fire. Build the infrastructure every party nominee takes for granted.
Then do it again.
Win one, and the next candidate doesn't start from zero.
Until then, the 217 will become a handful, and the handful will lose. Pundits will say voters don't want an alternative.
The truth is simpler: nobody gave them one with a real chance to win.