Ranked Choice Poll: VP Harris Is the Favorite to Replace Biden

Kamala Harris
Photo by Gage Skidmore / Flickr. Creative commons license.
Created: 15 Jul, 2024
Updated: 16 Jul, 2024
2 min read

Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore / Flickr

 

A new ranked choice voting poll shows that if Democrats were to replace President Joe Biden on the party’s presidential ticket, Vice President Kamala Harris is the strong favorite. However, the numbers show she does not poll as well as Biden against former President Donald Trump.

SurveyUSA and FairVote polled 2,050 likely voters in 6 swing states. The results show that Biden sits at a tie with Trump in these states (44%-44%), and at the moment that is the best any Democrat does against the Republican nominee. 

If Biden withdrew from the race, results show that Harris performs the strongest at 42% to Trump’s 46%.

Pollsters used ranked choice voting to determine the most preferred candidate to replace Biden among Democrats and independents from a list of 8 hypothetical replacements or respondents could say they wanted "someone else" or were “undecided.”

Poll Results

VP Harris’ favorability to replace Biden is without dispute. She started off with 37% in the first round, but then jumps to 45% in the second round, and by the time she is in a hypothetical one-on-one with Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, she won 68% to 32%.

Interesting to note, “someone else” initially polled higher than US Sens. Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar, as well as Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker. Since it is not a specific choice, the option was the first to be eliminated after the first round of polling tabulations along with “undecided.”

So, when facing 8 named Democrats, Harris was already close to majority support.

More Choice for San Diego

“Kamala Harris has deep and broad support among Democratic and independent voters, and appears to be the most popular choice if the party pursues a new presidential ticket,” said Deb Otis, Director of Research and Policy of FairVote.

“In this poll, 56% of likely Democratic and independent voters rank Harris among their top three potential nominees should President Biden step aside. Ranked choice polling gives us more and better information on voters’ preferences, and is well-suited to identify a consensus candidate who might unite a crowded and potentially fractious field.” 

Check out key takeaways from the poll (including a breakdown of Harris’ performance) here

The calls for Biden to step aside have quieted following the attempted assassination of Trump on July 13. The list of Democrats who wanted it or would not outright reject the idea had grown considerably up to that point, including nearly 20 sitting members of the US House. 

It’s unclear if these talks will resume once the media’s attention is not on the Republican National Convention.

Related articles

businessman holding his hands to his face.
New Poll: Half of US Voters Say They Voted For 'Lesser of Two Evils' in 2024
Photo by  Citizen Data polled US voters following the 2024 elections and found that nearly half (47%...
09 Dec, 2024
-
2 min read
Andrew Yang
Andrew Yang: Democrats Have Only Themselves to Blame
Photo Credit: ...
11 Nov, 2024
-
2 min read

Latest articles

Brick wall with a sign that says Republicans did it on the left, They did it in the middle, and Democrats did it on the right.
To Overcome Our Divides, We Must Try to Understand the Other Side’s Anger
After the election, I’ve been listening carefully to the people in our community. I’ve listened to Democratic voters distraught at Trump’s election, who can’t understand how so many people could vote for someone like him....
16 Jan, 2025
-
5 min read
Child holding up peace hand sign amidst rubble in Gaza.
Biden, Trump Quick to Take Credit for Gaza Ceasefire -- But Ignore Bigger Lesson
On Wednesday, both U.S. President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump took credit for a ceasefire-for-hostages agreement related to the conflict in Gaza. This deal, which had been in the works for several months, received additional support from an envoy associated with Trump, helping to facilitate its completion....
16 Jan, 2025
-
3 min read
hand sticking ballot in ballot box.
A 2024 Analysis Shows the Undeniable Force of the Independent Vote
Independent voters showcased how critical of a voting bloc they were in the 2024 elections. What's more, they showed that despite the claim that they are "party leaners," they were not committed to candidates of a single party....
15 Jan, 2025
-
3 min read