Ranked Choice Poll: VP Harris Is the Favorite to Replace Biden

Kamala Harris
Photo by Gage Skidmore / Flickr. Creative commons license.
Shawn GriffithsShawn Griffiths
Published: 15 Jul, 2024
2 min read

Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore / Flickr

 

A new ranked choice voting poll shows that if Democrats were to replace President Joe Biden on the party’s presidential ticket, Vice President Kamala Harris is the strong favorite. However, the numbers show she does not poll as well as Biden against former President Donald Trump.

SurveyUSA and FairVote polled 2,050 likely voters in 6 swing states. The results show that Biden sits at a tie with Trump in these states (44%-44%), and at the moment that is the best any Democrat does against the Republican nominee. 

If Biden withdrew from the race, results show that Harris performs the strongest at 42% to Trump’s 46%.

Pollsters used ranked choice voting to determine the most preferred candidate to replace Biden among Democrats and independents from a list of 8 hypothetical replacements or respondents could say they wanted "someone else" or were “undecided.”

Poll Results

VP Harris’ favorability to replace Biden is without dispute. She started off with 37% in the first round, but then jumps to 45% in the second round, and by the time she is in a hypothetical one-on-one with Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, she won 68% to 32%.

Interesting to note, “someone else” initially polled higher than US Sens. Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar, as well as Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker. Since it is not a specific choice, the option was the first to be eliminated after the first round of polling tabulations along with “undecided.”

So, when facing 8 named Democrats, Harris was already close to majority support.

IVP Donate

“Kamala Harris has deep and broad support among Democratic and independent voters, and appears to be the most popular choice if the party pursues a new presidential ticket,” said Deb Otis, Director of Research and Policy of FairVote.

“In this poll, 56% of likely Democratic and independent voters rank Harris among their top three potential nominees should President Biden step aside. Ranked choice polling gives us more and better information on voters’ preferences, and is well-suited to identify a consensus candidate who might unite a crowded and potentially fractious field.” 

Check out key takeaways from the poll (including a breakdown of Harris’ performance) here

The calls for Biden to step aside have quieted following the attempted assassination of Trump on July 13. The list of Democrats who wanted it or would not outright reject the idea had grown considerably up to that point, including nearly 20 sitting members of the US House. 

It’s unclear if these talks will resume once the media’s attention is not on the Republican National Convention.

Related articles

Judge about to slower gavel.
Believe It or Not, There Is Still a 2024 Election That Hasn't Been Called
It may be hard to believe, but as of April 2025, there is still one election in the US from the last election cycle that has not been called: the 2024 North Carolina Supreme Court election between incumbent Democrat Justice Allison Riggs and Republican challenger Jefferson Griffin....
09 Apr, 2025
-
3 min read
businessman holding his hands to his face.
New Poll: Half of US Voters Say They Voted For 'Lesser of Two Evils' in 2024
Citizen Data polled US voters following the 2024 elections and found that nearly half (47%) said they cast their ballot, not for the candidate they supported the most, but for the candidate they determined was the 'lesser of two evils.'...
09 Dec, 2024
-
2 min read
Andrew Yang
Andrew Yang: Democrats Have Only Themselves to Blame
Former presidential candidate and Forward Party Founder Andrew Yang says that if Democratic leaders are looking for someone to blame for their 2024 loss, they need to take a hard look in the mirror....
11 Nov, 2024
-
2 min read

Latest articles

California and US flags.
BREAKING: CA Democrats Remove Trigger Language from Redistricting Bill, Will Gerrymander With or Without Texas
A new congressional map will most likely appear on a special election ballot in California, whether or not Texas signs into law its own gerrymandered maps, after the “trigger” language was removed from the proposed constitutional amendment Thursday....
21 Aug, 2025
-
2 min read
Woman walking away with a I voted sticker on.
Hey New York Times, Your Party Voter Registration Story is Pretty Bad
The press has a problem with independent voters. Specifically, the historic growth seen in independe...
20 Aug, 2025
-
6 min read
Person installing solar panels on roof.
How Californians Without Solar Got Stuck Paying for Those Who Do
Californians pay the ...
19 Aug, 2025
-
9 min read