Shawn Griffiths
Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore / Flickr
A new ranked choice voting poll shows that if Democrats were to replace President Joe Biden on the party’s presidential ticket, Vice President Kamala Harris is the strong favorite. However, the numbers show she does not poll as well as Biden against former President Donald Trump.
SurveyUSA and FairVote polled 2,050 likely voters in 6 swing states. The results show that Biden sits at a tie with Trump in these states (44%-44%), and at the moment that is the best any Democrat does against the Republican nominee.
If Biden withdrew from the race, results show that Harris performs the strongest at 42% to Trump’s 46%.
Pollsters used ranked choice voting to determine the most preferred candidate to replace Biden among Democrats and independents from a list of 8 hypothetical replacements or respondents could say they wanted "someone else" or were “undecided.”
VP Harris’ favorability to replace Biden is without dispute. She started off with 37% in the first round, but then jumps to 45% in the second round, and by the time she is in a hypothetical one-on-one with Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, she won 68% to 32%.
Interesting to note, “someone else” initially polled higher than US Sens. Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar, as well as Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker. Since it is not a specific choice, the option was the first to be eliminated after the first round of polling tabulations along with “undecided.”
So, when facing 8 named Democrats, Harris was already close to majority support.
“Kamala Harris has deep and broad support among Democratic and independent voters, and appears to be the most popular choice if the party pursues a new presidential ticket,” said Deb Otis, Director of Research and Policy of FairVote.
“In this poll, 56% of likely Democratic and independent voters rank Harris among their top three potential nominees should President Biden step aside. Ranked choice polling gives us more and better information on voters’ preferences, and is well-suited to identify a consensus candidate who might unite a crowded and potentially fractious field.”
Check out key takeaways from the poll (including a breakdown of Harris’ performance) here.
The calls for Biden to step aside have quieted following the attempted assassination of Trump on July 13. The list of Democrats who wanted it or would not outright reject the idea had grown considerably up to that point, including nearly 20 sitting members of the US House.
It’s unclear if these talks will resume once the media’s attention is not on the Republican National Convention.