Independent Voters Have Yet to Fully Flex Their Influence in Presidential Elections

ballot
Photo by Joshua Woroniecki on Unsplash
Published: 07 Nov, 2024
Updated: 18 Jun, 2025
2 min read

Photo by Joshua Woroniecki on Unsplash

 

Exit polling from Edison Research shows that self-identified independents made up a larger share of the 2024 vote -- but with independent ID reaching a majority of the electorate, this bloc has yet to fully make its presence felt in presidential elections.

Data points show that self-identified independents outvoted members of one of the two major political parties for the first time since Edison, a New Jersey-based research group, began exit polling US elections in 2004.  Specifically, independents outperformed Democrats.

They tied Republicans.

The independent share of the 2024 electorate was 34%, compared with 34% for Republicans and 32% for Democrats. From this, we can get a clearer picture how President-Elect Donald Trump was able to win -- but it wasn't because a majority of independents broke for him.

But enough did.

Edison found that the independent vote was nearly evenly divided, with 50% voting for Harris and 45% voting for Trump. This, according to the published data, is a 4-percentage point increase for Trump from 2020, despite more independents once again voting for the Democratic nominee.

Democrats made up less of the voting pool in 2024. Independents made up more of it. And more independents favored Trump compared to 2020. It's easy to see how he won.

IVP Donate

Are Independents Still A Sleeping Giant in Elections?

Gallup publishes a poll on party affiliation every month. It is difficult to tell how reliable the poll is because of how much the numbers shift, but in June 2024, Gallup found that as much as 51% of the electorate self-identifies as independent.

This is the highest the research group has shown independent ID in the history of its polling.

Historically, this number has always dropped going into an election day. The last poll ahead of November 5 showed independent ID at 37% (see how wildly this number fluctuates?). However, even if it was this low, independents were still short of their full potential.

Especially, when the 37% is higher than Democrats (32%) and Republicans (29%). The question then becomes, why?

The US has an election system that enforces at every level this idea that voters only have two options, and it is whatever candidates the two major political parties give them each election cycle. These candidates never change much -- something that has been quite literal for the GOP.

And Harris did not do much to break from the policies of the current administration or the status quo in her party's leadership. 

It may account for why independents have yet to outperform members of both parties in presidential elections. When stuck with the same choices each election cycle, what is the incentive to keep pushing the red or blue button and expect anything different?

Related articles

Judge about to slower gavel.
Believe It or Not, There Is Still a 2024 Election That Hasn't Been Called
It may be hard to believe, but as of April 2025, there is still one election in the US from the last election cycle that has not been called: the 2024 North Carolina Supreme Court election between incumbent Democrat Justice Allison Riggs and Republican challenger Jefferson Griffin....
09 Apr, 2025
-
3 min read
businessman holding his hands to his face.
New Poll: Half of US Voters Say They Voted For 'Lesser of Two Evils' in 2024
Citizen Data polled US voters following the 2024 elections and found that nearly half (47%) said they cast their ballot, not for the candidate they supported the most, but for the candidate they determined was the 'lesser of two evils.'...
09 Dec, 2024
-
2 min read
Andrew Yang
Andrew Yang: Democrats Have Only Themselves to Blame
Former presidential candidate and Forward Party Founder Andrew Yang says that if Democratic leaders are looking for someone to blame for their 2024 loss, they need to take a hard look in the mirror....
11 Nov, 2024
-
2 min read

Latest articles

CA capitol building dome with flags.
Why is CA Senator Mike McGuire Trying to Kill the Legal Cannabis Industry?
California’s legal cannabis industry is under mounting pressure, and in early June, state lawmakers and the governor appeared poised to help. A bill to freeze the state’s cannabis excise tax at 15% sailed through the State Assembly with a unanimous 74-0 vote. The governor’s office backed the plan. And legal cannabis businesses, still struggling to compete with unregulated sellers and mounting operating costs, saw a glimmer of hope....
03 Jul, 2025
-
7 min read
I voted buttons
After First RCV Election, Charlottesville Voters Back the Reform: 'They Get It, They Like It, They Want to Do It Again'
A new survey out of Charlottesville, Virginia, shows overwhelming support for ranked choice voting (RCV) following the city’s first use of the system in its June Democratic primary for City Council. Conducted one week after the election, the results found that nearly 90% of respondents support continued use of RCV....
03 Jul, 2025
-
3 min read
Crowd in Time Square.
NYC Exit Survey: 96% of Voters Understood Their Ranked Choice Ballots
An exit poll conducted by SurveyUSA on behalf of the nonprofit better elections group FairVote finds that ranked choice voting (RCV) continues to be supported by a vast majority of voters who find it simple, fair, and easy to use. The findings come in the wake of the city’s third use of RCV in its June 2025 primary elections....
01 Jul, 2025
-
6 min read