NEW POLL: California Governor’s Race Sees “None of the Above” Beat the Entire Democratic Field
Cara Brown McCormickA new statewide poll conducted by the Independent Voter Project finds California’s independent voters overwhelmingly support the state’s nonpartisan primary system and express broad dissatisfaction with the direction of state politics.
IVP surveyed more than 1,700 California voters registered as No Party Preference (NPP) on a range of political and policy issues, as well as their preferences in the 2026 gubernatorial race. The results point to an electorate that remains politically independent, skeptical of entrenched power, and broadly aligned on several major policy concerns.
Support for California’s nonpartisan primary system remains strong among independent voters, with just 14 percent favoring a return to the former closed partisan primary system. The findings reinforce earlier evidence that NPP voters view open elections as essential to fair representation.
On partisan trust, respondents were closely divided. Thirty-four percent said they are more inclined to trust Democrats, while 32 percent leaned toward Republicans, underscoring the continued refusal of independent voters to align consistently with either major party.
On policy questions, independent voters showed strong alignment across a wide range of issues, with notable consistency between statewide respondents and those in Los Angeles County.
Large majorities of independent voters agreed that California needs to make homeownership more attainable, with roughly six-in-ten expressing strong agreement statewide and in Los Angeles County. Similarly, strong majorities said the cost of living, including gas, groceries, and energy bills, is out of control.
Independent voters also expressed broad support for increased law enforcement. Statewide, a clear majority agreed with the statement that California needs more law enforcement, not less, a view that was shared by Los Angeles County respondents at comparable levels.
Concerns about corruption and government waste were also widespread. More than half of independent voters statewide strongly agreed that there is too much government waste and corruption in California politics, with Los Angeles County voters closely mirroring that sentiment.
Immigration enforcement was the only issue to produce a clearly polarized response pattern, with voters clustering at opposite ends of the scale rather than around a middle position. A plurality agreed that California should cooperate with federal ICE officials in cases involving public safety.
Independent voters also showed strong support for structural political reforms. More than seven in ten supported keeping California’s current nonpartisan open primary system, with only a small minority favoring a return to closed party primaries. In addition, a majority supported allowing voters to rank up to five candidates in general elections rather than being limited to two.
There was near-unanimous agreement on limiting the influence of money in politics. More than nine in ten independent voters supported an initiative to limit the amount of money spent by corporations and foreign interests to influence California elections.
When asked what matters most in a candidate, independent voters prioritized honesty and ethics, followed by having good character and the ability to get things done, far outweighing ideology, party affiliation, or political experience alone.
Governor’s Race
In the 2026 governor’s race, independent voters split in patterns broadly consistent with other public polling, though IVP’s large sample allowed for additional insight, including comparisons between statewide results and California’s largest county, Los Angeles. Respondents were permitted to select more than one candidate they were considering in the race, which is why the numbers do not add up to 100 percent.
Statewide results among NPP voters showed Chad Bianco leading at 26 percent, followed by Steve Hilton at 23.8 percent and “none of the above” at 22.3 percent. Eric Swalwell received 21 percent support, Katie Porter 20.3 percent, and Xavier Becerra 12.5 percent. Antonio Villaraigosa stood at 9.8 percent, Rick Caruso at 8.8 percent, Betty Yee at 6.8 percent, Tony Thurmond at 4.7 percent, and Ian Calderon at 2.4 percent.
In Los Angeles County, the race looked meaningfully different. Bianco polled lower at 23 percent, while Rick Caruso saw substantially stronger support at 18.9 percent compared to his statewide standing. Support for Steve Hilton also dropped in Los Angeles County to 18.4 percent. Katie Porter and Eric Swalwell both performed slightly better in Los Angeles County than statewide, while Villaraigosa’s support rose to 12.1 percent.
While Caruso has not declared his intentions, his stronger support in Los Angeles County is notable given widespread speculation that he is considering another mayoral run or a bid for governor.
The Los Angeles County results underscore how regional dynamics continue to shape California’s open primary system, with independent voters in the state’s largest county responding differently to individual candidates than voters statewide.
Measuring the Impact of Tom Steyer’s Entry
During the polling period, Tom Steyer entered the gubernatorial race with a significant television advertising buy. IVP asked a follow-up question to assess whether his entry changed who respondents were considering in the governor’s race. Among participants, 10 percent said Steyer’s entry changed their consideration, 19 percent said it did not, and 71 percent were categorized as not likely to change their preference.
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