SAN DIEGO, Calif. - As early voting for the November 4 special election in California begins, a new poll shows a majority of voters may end up supporting Prop 50, which suspends the state's independent redistricting commission in favor of a legislative gerrymander.

What’s more, the poll found that Californians were more likely to agree with Gov Gavin Newsom and the Democratic Party’s pitch that it is needed as a necessary counterpunch to mid-decade redistricting in Texas, which was encouraged by President Donald Trump.

Supporters have focused entirely on Trump. Newsom argues that Prop 50 will “bring much needed accountability to Trump’s efforts to undermine the democratic process.” AOC cut an ad for Prop 50, saying it will stop Trump from forcing a Congress that answers only to him.

Meanwhile, former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and opponents say it is “insane” to claim to fight for democracy by tossing out a fundamental democratic principle that redistricting should be nonpartisan and not subject to the whims of partisan gamesmanship.

A new poll from the GOP-aligned firm co/efficient shows Democrats may be winning the messaging fight.

The poll found that 54% of voters surveyed support Prop 50. But pollsters also tested the arguments made by supporters and opponents in their TV ads and found that voters were 46% to 57% more likely to back Prop 50 after hearing the various Democratic pitches for it.

Conversely, voters were 37% to 44% less likely to back Prop 50 after hearing the arguments from the No on 50 campaign.

The co/efficient poll is the first to show a clear majority in favor of Prop 50. Emerson College released results from its own September 19 poll that found that 50.6% of voters said they’d vote for Prop 50.

The latest numbers show that it is not going to be an easy decision for many Californians, regardless of how they end up voting. Co/efficient found that only 12% trust the legislature most to redraw electoral maps – which is exactly what Prop 50 allows.

A Citrin Center/Possibility Lab/POLITICO Summer Policy Survey previously found that 64% of respondents favored "keeping the independent redistricting commission,” while 36% supported “returning congressional redistricting authority to state legislators.”

Democrats have gone all-in to pass Prop 50. It has the support from former President Barack Obama and popular public officials like AOC. It is supported financially by megadonor George Soros and by the state’s largest labor unions. 

Even the national progressive group Our Revolution has committed its massive ground game to pass the measure, putting aside its differences with the Democratic Party’s establishment leadership and big-money donors.

Want more information? Check out IVN’s voter guide on Prop 50 – the only independent voter guide on the measure.