SACRAMENTO, Calif. - Governor Gavin Newsom is finding out the hard way that Californians, especially independents, are not eager to hand politicians the keys to redistricting again.

A brand new Citrin Center / UC Berkeley Possibility Lab / POLITICO poll shows independents oppose Newsom’s plan by a nearly three-to-one margin. Seventy-two percent (72%) want to keep the independent redistricting commission.

Only 28% are willing to let the Legislature take back control of congressional map drawing.

What Voters Were Asked

The poll question spelled the issue out clearly:

In both 2008 and 2010, California voters passed initiatives to give an Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission the power to draw the state’s legislative and congressional districts, in order to reduce the influence of politicians. Governor Newsom has suggested returning congressional line-drawing authority back to the Legislature, citing concerns that redistricting efforts in Republican states would give them a partisan advantage. Do you support keeping the independent redistricting commission or support returning congressional redistricting authority to state legislators?”

The Numbers Tell the Story

Across all voters, 64%g want the independent redistricting commission to stay, 36 percent support putting the Legislature back in charge of the maps. Break it down by party, and you can see the challenge for Newsom and the Democrats:

• Republicans: 66 percent want to keep the commission
• Democrats: 61 percent want to keep the commission
• Independents: 72 percent want to keep the commission

Older Californians are the fiercest defenders of the commission. Nearly eight in ten voters over 80 want to keep politicians out of the process. Younger voters lean the same way, though with less intensity. Gender and education play a role, too. Men back the commission by almost seven in ten. Women are more divided at six in ten. College-educated voters are more supportive of the commission than those without a degree.

Even Insider Democrats are 50/50

The survey also polled 512 policy insiders. 

• Republican influencers: 91 percent say keep the commission
• Democratic influencers: split down the middle
• Independent influencers: 79 percent say keep the commission

Independent voters outside the system and independent insiders within the system are saying the same thing. Do not give redistricting back to the politicians.

Newsom’s stance has collided with an unusually broad wall of opposition. On August 1, 2025, leaders from groups as diverse as the California Farm Bureau, the League of Women Voters of California, Open Primaries, the California Hispanic Chambers of Commerce, the Independent Voter Project, and the California Manufacturers and Technology Association sent a joint letter urging him to abandon the plan.

Voters created this Commission through two ballot measures to remove self-interest and partisanship from the redistricting process,” the letter states. “It enforces strict conflict-of-interest rules, ensures diverse and balanced representation, and mandates public input at every stage. That reform — approved by the people — deserves protection, not political re-engineering.”

What It Means for November 2025

Newsom’s plan would let the California Legislature draw maps for 2026, 2028, and 2030, before handing control back to the independent commission.

He has framed the move as both practical and principled. If Republicans in Texas and other states are going to rig the maps, California should, too. “It’s always the right thing to do the right thing,” Newsom told reporters on August 8, even as his critics argue the numbers don’t justify the gamble.

But this early polling shows that his message hasn’t landed yet. 

Independents may be the ones who decide it. They already make up a large share of the California electorate and may emerge as the most consistent defenders of the commission. If they turn out in force this November, Democrats could be facing a severe defeat on their ballot measure.

For Newsom and Democratic leaders, these numbers paint a tough picture. Even their base voters are not convinced. Add in the independents and the Republicans, and the math looks daunting. The ballot fight in November 2025 will tell us whether California sticks with the citizen commission or lets the politicians back in. It will also give us a real-time measure of just how powerful independents are when they use their voices.