The GOP certainly hopes it can capture the open seat in California's Assembly District 76, but Democrats are heavily invested in the outcome of this race, seeking to keep the seat blue.

To put this district’s nonpartisan landscape into perspective, well-known moderate Democrat Assemblymember Brian Maienschein currently holds the seat. In fact, he once won as a moderate Republican. But he is termed out and running for City Attorney in San Diego.

Vying to replace Maienschein is Republican Kristie Bruce-Lane and Democrat Darshana Patel.

Even though Bruce-Lane cruised to victory in the primary, she couldn’t quite capture a majority of the electorate she needed to win the general election. She finished with 49% compared to Patel’s 34%, but Patel had to fend off fellow Democrat Joseph Rocha, who picked up 15% of the vote.

With Bruce-Lane under 50% and the district's tendency to shift to the left from the primary to the general, Patel starts out as the slight favorite, political insiders have said. The California Democratic Party began directing money her way just days after the primary.

Will the California GOP draw from its more limited reservoir of resources to try to keep pace? 

Bruce-Lane's donor list includes a number of business groups and public safety organizations. Patel is a two-term member of the Poway Unified School Board and appointed member of the California State Senate's Commission on Asian & Pacific Islander American Affairs.

In a Democratic-leaning district that President Joe Biden won 4 years ago with 57%, compared to Donald Trump’s 41%, "No Party Preference" voters (NPPs) are expected to play a significant role in determining the outcome.

Can Bruce-Lane appeal to independent voters without alienating Trump MAGA Republicans? And if so, what will that mean for her positions on public safety, rent control, and minimum wage – all issues on the statewide ballot this November?

Can Patel make a strong case for NPPs without alienating her progressive base? She can’t run to the left and focus solely on Democrats because they only account for 38% of registered voters in the district.

NPPs account for 25% and Republicans make up 31%.

On the issues, both candidates are focused on housing and homelessness, and lowering the cost of living, and education. But public safety is at the center of Bruce-Lane’s campaign.

“My work on keeping our communities safe are recognized by law enforcement and crime survivors, having received the endorsement of the San Diego County Deputy Sheriff’s Association, California Correctional Peace Officers Association and CrimeSurvivors PAC,” she said.

Patel’s platform focuses on gun violence, reproductive rights, and wages and working conditions.

“I am running for State Assembly because I want to make sure that every person has the opportunity to succeed and thrive, and because I can use my experience as a scientist, elected school board member, community leader, and a mom to make a difference in their lives,” she said.

Kristie Bruce-Lane: Supported by Law Enforcement

Elected to represent District 4 of the Olivenhain Municipal Water District in 2020, Bruce-Lane ran unsuccessfully for this Assembly seat in 2022, losing to Maienschein by 3 percentage points. Raised in Bakersfield, she earned dual bachelor's degrees in nutritional science and crop science from California Polytechnic State University. 

After graduation, she began working in the agricultural industry as a marketing manager for Monsanto, then pivoted to the pharmaceutical industry. 

Bruce-Lane is an advisory council member for Door of Hope-Salvation Army, serves on the San Diego Council of Literacy's board, and is the founder and president of The Thumbprint Project Foundation.

She resides in the 4S Ranch area of San Diego with her husband and young son.

Darshana Patel: Supported by a United Democratic Party

A scientist, Patel was born in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and earned her bachelor's in biochemistry at Occidental College in 1996 and a Ph.D in biochemistry and biophysics from UC-Irvine in 2002.

After completing her doctorate, she worked for Genetech from 2002 to 2010 as a postdoctoral scientist and project manager. 

Patel moved from the Bay Area to San Diego in 2010, and over the next few years held positions on the Rancho Penasquitos Town Council, Rancho Penasquitos Planning Board, elementary school PTA, and Education Foundation Board.

She is the current president of the San Diego County School Boards Association and resides in the Rancho Penasquitos community of San Diego with her husband and their three daughters.

What’s at Stake?

The outcome of this race will have significant implications for both parties.

For Democrats, holding onto this seat is crucial for maintaining their newfound stronghold in San Diego. As the GOP faces increasing challenges in traditionally safe districts, winning back a seat in Northern San Diego could signal a change in the electoral tides. 

With the general election approaching, the race between Bruce-Lane and Patel is expected to be fiercely contested, with both sides vying for the support of independent and swing voters who could ultimately decide the outcome.