Are  Independents “a confused and clueless horde,” who are “more myopic than  moderate” and characterized above all else by their “thoughtlessness”?   These are just a few of the claims put forward in an anti-Independent  hit piece published this week in The New Republic.

In “The Trouble with Independents,” Georgetown history professor Michael Kazin argues that Independent voters are “a clueless horde” on the basis of an “impression” gleaned from a single survey and report by the liberal research group Democracy Corps, which sought to gauge public  opinion on Republican and Democratic arguments in the ongoing budget  debate.  In his analysis of the survey, Kazim focuses in on an  apparently puzzling result: a majority of respondents agree with both  Republican and Democratic talking points.  He emphasizes that “by a  margin of over 20 points, voters agree,” with the Republican party’s  statements concerning Paul Ryan’s budget plan, but that “by slightly  higher percentages, they also agree with the Democrats” in their  criticism of Ryan’s plan.

Yet,  things are not as clear cut as this simplistic and deceptive juxtaposition would make  them appear.  Respondents to the survey were not asked if they agree  with the Republican talking points.  They were asked if they found  individual statements to be a “convincing reason to support the plan”  proposed by the GOP.  Nor were they asked if they agree with the  Democratic party’s talking points.  Rather the survey inquired whether  the Democratic talking points “raise doubts” about the Republican plan.

What  the survey found is that Independents were swayed against the  Republican plan by the arguments tested in the  poll.  At the outset, Independents said they favored the GOP plan 55% to  26%.  However, after being presented with the information provided in  the survey, they ended up opposing it 50% to 43%.  For the professor from Georgetown, such a change in opinion is apparently unacceptable.  He states that such a result might indicate "a desire to give each group of partisans  the benefit of the doubt. But I think it demonstrates a basic  thoughtlessness."

The scholarly gentleman fails to mention, however, that Democrats  and even Republicans also shifted against the plan over the course of the  survey.  At the outset, 19% of Democrats stated that they favored it and  59% said they opposed it. Asked again later, only 7% said they favored  it and 88% opposed it.  Among Republicans, 76% initially supported it,  with 10% opposed. In the end, 63% supported it and 26% opposed it.

The  survey states outright that the description of the plan and the  information provided in the survey “dramatically shifts the debate,”  thus demonstrating the effectiveness of the arguments it tested for the  Democratic party.  Initially, 48% favored the plan and 33% opposed it.   At the end, 51% opposed it and 44% favored it.

In The New Republic,  Kazin concludes that Independents are wholly responsible for the  apparent inconsistency in the study and the swing in the results.

“Since avowed Republicans and Democrats line up consistently behind  whichever arguments come from their side, it is the independents who are  responsible for the contradictory results: Almost 50 percent agreed  first with the GOP positions, and then, with those of the other party,”  he states.

It is extremely revealing that, for Kazin, being persuaded by a  specific line of argumentation in a lengthy survey is an indication of thoughtlessness, while reactively lining up behind whatever statements are put forward by  one’s own “side” is a sign of deliberative political engagement.

Arguably, Kazin’s conclusion just does not follow from the data  provided by the study. Other explanations for the shift in opinion over the course of the  survey are entirely possible, and perhaps even more likely.  At the  outset of the survey, about 20% of respondents were unsure what their  position was on the GOP’s budget plan, including roughly 20% of  Democrats, 20% of Independents and 15% of Republicans.  At the end of  the survey, just 5% still had no opinion on the matter.  This simple  difference, by itself, could very well account for three-quarters of the  shift against the GOP plan.

Furthermore, even if one were sympathetic to the professor's position,  it would still have to be considered rather dubious since  Independents were underrepresented in the sample that formed the basis  for the study.  Kazin does not mention that only 23% of its respondents were Independent whereas the two  previous polls conducted by Democracy Corps were more in line with the national average, according to which Independents account for 28% of likely voters.

Reconsidering  Kazin’s initial point, however, is it really so surprising that a  majority of likely voters might agree with Republican and  Democratic talking points?  When Republicans state that Democrats are  dishonest and out of control, and Democrats say that Republicans are  reckless and hypocritical, who could disagree?  Fortunately, many of us  in the “independent horde” need not rely on an impression gleaned from a  single survey by a partisan research outlet to draw conclusions  regarding the thoughtlessness and myopia of the Democratic  and Republican parties.  Democrats and Republicans provide us with new  evidence to support our considered judgment in that regard on a daily  basis.