Matt Shinners
On September, three independent candidates shared a stage in Coeur d'Alene. About 100 people filled the Harding Family Center's gymnasium for the DART Independent Candidate Forum, a group that backs qualified, moderate candidates regardless of party.
There, Todd Achilles, John Stegner, and Sarah Zabel each argued that the two-party system is failing Idahoans…and Americans.
The forum was a snapshot of a statewide pattern. Idaho Republicans have not lost a U.S. Senate race since 1974. Yet this November, independents are on the ballot for Senate, governor, and both U.S. House seats.
The Field
Todd Achilles, US Senate (IVN interview). Achilles is an Army veteran who was a Republican before 2024. He then served as a Democratic state representative and resigned in July 2025 to run for Senate as an independent. In July, the Ada County Democratic Central Committee gave Democratic nominee David Roth an ultimatum to show his campaign was viable Roth then dropped out of the race.
John Stegner, Governor. Stegner served as a judge for 25 years, first as a district judge and then on the Idaho Supreme Court. He was a Republican for much of his life before launching his independent campaign in early 2026. As of July, he had raised $393,332, the most of any candidate challenging Gov. Brad Little. The field also includes Democrat Terri Pickens and Libertarian Paul Sand.
Stegner framed his run around families leaving the state. He said his three daughters no longer live in Idaho "because they felt they couldn't afford to live here."
Sarah Zabel, 1st Congressional District (IVN Interview). Zabel is an Air Force veteran who was a registered Republican for three decades. She’s taking on incumbent Rep. Russ Fulcher.
Why Are Independents Surging In Idaho? Several Reasons.
1. Idahoans register Republican, but don't all identify that way
Idaho's voter rolls are 61.9% Republican, 11.5% Democratic, and 25.2% independent. But party identification tells a different story. In Boise State's 2026 Idaho Public Policy Survey, about 40% of respondents identified as Republicans, about 38% as independents, and about 15% as Democrats.
One explanation is Idaho’s primary system. Idaho adopted a closed primary system in 2011. In recent primaries, only the Democratic Party let unaffiliated voters participate. An unaffiliated Idahoan who wants a say in the state's decisive Republican primaries has to register Republican, likely inflating those registration numbers.
2. The Democratic Party is too small to compete
With Democrats at 11.5% of registered voters (and 15% of voter identification), the party's own officials have pushed toward independents. The Ada County committee told Roth it was concerned his campaign was not positioned for what it called the best political environment Idaho had seen in decades.
3. Independents disagree with the status quo on key issues
This discrepancy between how independents view the state and key issues and the policies being promoted by the Republicans who represent them suggests a lane for independent candidates.
What Idaho Is Testing
Idaho's independents are not betting that the state has stopped being conservative. Their theory is narrower. Many Idahoans registered Republican because it was the only primary that mattered, and those voters, joined by the state's unaffiliated voters, may treat a general election ballot differently.
Especially if the independent candidates can build a coalition of these voters and Democrats, who make up a small, but potentially decisive, portion of the electorate. This group doesn’t believe they can win statewide with a candidate that has a (D) next to their name, so they may be willing to vote for a candidate with an (I) who is more aligned with them than the Republican candidates.
Idaho voters chose to keep the closed primary in 2024, which means November is the one election this cycle where every voter can choose any of these candidates. If the gap between registration and identification translates into votes anywhere, it will be in a state where independents are running at every level of the ballot.