Matt Shinners
Betting markets have emerged as a rather contentious wrinkle in America's obsession with gambling. We've seen individuals banned and fined for betting on themselves or using insider information to trade.
Whether you have an account on all the major sites or you think they're ruining society, there are a lot of people putting real money on the outcomes of upcoming elections. For the races featuring independents, there isn't a lot of high-quality polling, with many of the information coming from firms that are hired by the candidates themselves.
So, what is going into people's predictions? Is it just vibes, or is there something deeper? Let's take a look at the betting market odds (focusing on Kalshi) and some data points to see where things land.
Senate Races
Idaho — Todd Achilles (I) vs. Jim Risch (R)
Kalshi: Achilles 5%, Risch 95%
Idaho voters skew hard Republican: The Independent Voter Project (IVP) puts registration at 61.9% Republican, 11.52% Democratic, and 25.19% independent, under a semi-closed primary system. Donald Trump carried the state by more than 30 points in 2024. Achilles' 5% isn't nothing in a state this red, but the registration math explains why the market treats Risch as a near-certainty.
Montana — Seth Bodnar (I) vs. Kurt Alme (R)
Kalshi: Bodnar 9%, Alme 91%
Montana doesn't register voters by party, so IVP's figures here are modeled estimates: roughly 44.74% Republican, 26.39% Democratic, 28.87% independent, run under an open primary. Trump won the state by about 20 points in 2024. Bodnar's four-way race — with a Democrat still on the ballot splitting the anti-Republican vote — helps explain why his number sits below Osborn's despite a similar pitch.
Nebraska — Dan Osborn (I) vs. Pete Ricketts (R)
Kalshi: Osborn 31%, Ricketts 69%
Osborn is the standout of the group. IVP has Nebraska at 49.71% Republican, 25.92% Democratic, 22.16% independent, under a semi-closed primary — a solidly red state on paper. But with the Democratic Party formally clearing the field for him, Osborn is pulling 31 cents on the dollar, by far the strongest independent number in this batch.
South Dakota — Brian Bengs (I) vs. Mike Rounds (R)
Kalshi: Bengs 5%, Rounds 95%
Like Montana, South Dakota's party breakdown is modeled rather than self-reported: IVP estimates 51.19% Republican, 22.61% Democratic, 25.6% independent, in a closed-primary state. Despite Bengs also getting a cleared Democratic field, his price sits at the bottom of the pack alongside Achilles.
Colorado — Bob Chew (Forward Party) vs. John Hickenlooper (D)
Kalshi doesn't list Chew as a separate contract here — the market is a straight binary at Democratic 94.7%, Republican 5.3%, meaning there's no clean number to pull for him specifically. Worth noting given the state's registration profile: IVP shows Colorado with an independent majority at 50.67%, ahead of Democrats (24.66%) and Republicans (22.23%), under a semi-open primary. That's arguably the most fertile registration environment of any race here for an independent — Kalshi just isn't pricing it as one.
Mississippi — Ty Pinkins (I) vs. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)
Same situation: Kalshi tracks this as Republican ~93%, Democratic ~7-8%, with no independent line for Pinkins. IVP's modeled data puts Mississippi at 29% Republican, 24.08% Democratic, and 46.9% independent — independents are the plurality — under an open primary. Trump won the state by 23 points in 2024.
House Races
California's 6th District — Kevin Kiley (I) vs. Richard Pan (D)
Kalshi: Pan 96.5%, Kiley 6.5%, Republican 1%
This is the mirror image of the Senate races: an independent running in hostile territory. CalMatters rates CA-06 Safe Democratic, with district registration at 39% Democratic, 31% Republican, and 22% no-party-preference — a district redrawn under Prop 50 specifically to disadvantage Kiley's old Republican registration. Running as an independent got him through the Top Two primary, but Kalshi doesn't see it getting him much further.
Alaska At-Large — Bill Hill (I) vs. Nick Begich (R)
Kalshi: Begich 83%, Hill 21%, Democratic 1%
Alaska is the one place in this entire set where the registration numbers actually favor an independent outright: IVP has Alaska's electorate at 63.42% independent/unaffiliated, versus just 23.16% Republican and 11.71% Democratic, run through the state's nonpartisan top-four primary — the same system that elected Mary Peltola in 2022. The Cook Partisan Voting Index still rates the seat R+6 on paper. Hill's 21% is the second-best number of any independent tracked here, trailing only Osborn.
The Pattern
Line these eight races up and a rough order emerges: Osborn (31%) and Hill (21%) are the two independents Kalshi treats as genuinely live, both running in states or districts where either the registration math is unusually favorable to non-party candidates (Alaska) or the opposing party has functionally exited the race (Nebraska).
Bodnar (9%) and Kiley (6.5%) sit in the next tier — competitive enough to register real money, not competitive enough to be called close. Achilles and Bengs (5% each) are priced as true long shots despite cleared Democratic fields, which says something about how much registration math still outweighs field-clearing in the market's eyes.
And Chew and Pinkins aren't priced as independents at all — Kalshi's structure simply doesn't have a slot for them yet, regardless of what the underlying voter registration numbers might suggest about their theoretical ceiling.